CoalCityWxMan Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 00z runs will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 16 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Something out outliered the GFS Lock it in baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Just to also mention if the system ends up slower it very well can end up further SE because of the phasing of the initial system as there will be a high pressure blocking the way toward the NE across the UP/Lake Superior area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 At first glance it looks like 00z NAM is further south a tad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Through 60, NAM maybe a touch south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Trying hard not to get excited about this one. Looks to be a sharp cutoff around Chicago area. LOT seems to not bite on the southern shift just yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Just now, SchaumburgStormer said: Through 60, NAM maybe a touch south. Give or take 50 miles south at 66. Pretty decent shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Through 60, NAM maybe a touch south. Agreed..Tad south and a bit weaker. Its long range for the NAM though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Just now, ChiTownSnow said: Agreed..Tad south and a bit weaker. Its long range for the NAM though Gonna be a solid run for cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, IllinoisWedges said: Give or take 50 miles south at 66. Pretty decent shift. Looks a lot like the GFS run. Well south, IL river and north gets solid plastering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Stebo’s got the magnet going full blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 This 00 NAM came in too far south for comfort. We are now on the edge but within the heavier snow. I think it might trend se and leave ya bare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 6 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Looks a lot like the GFS run. Well south, IL river and north gets solid plastering. I'd argue that it's south of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Stebo’s got the magnet going full blast. It is the NAM of course but what it is doing is exactly what I outlined on the previous page and what explains the SE trend on the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Just now, snowlover2 said: I'd argue that it's south of the GFS. It is and it is a bit slower too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 23, 2018 Author Share Posted November 23, 2018 I know a lot of people don't like the ICON on this forum (or that's the impression I've gotten at least) but it's been pretty consistent so far with a northern track... until now, where it shifts as far south as the NAM did or further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 This is a nice start to the best time of yr on the board. Some nice winter threats already this fall for those to hone up their winter tracking skills. At this pace it won't be long and all of page 1 will be void of severe wx threads. Good thing we have winter to pay the bills around here because severe wx's been on leave. Trend SE in this time frame is alive and well again I see for winter 8 in a row now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Little worried about the speed of this thing though. Seems like its in and out of Northern IL in about 8-10 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 NAM has a band of 50-55 kt winds at 925 mb, which looks like it would mix down efficiently especially around here with the slightly warmer boundary layer air howling in off the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, UMB WX said: This is a nice start to the best time of yr on the board. Some nice winter threats already this fall for those to hone up their winter tracking skills. At this pace it won't be long and all of page 1 will be void of severe wx threads. Good thing we have winter to pay the bills around here because severe wx's been on leave. Trend SE in this time frame is alive and well again I see for winter 8 in a row now? Except when they start out northwest of here... Seems the only impactful weather scentral WI can get this decade is excessive rain/flooding which doesn't get my adrenaline pumping like severe and isn't photogenic like severe and snow. It's just destructive/annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Very definite SE trend on the NAM and ICON at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 59 minutes ago, Stebo said: Lock it in baby! Leave it to our fearless moderator to break out the Navy. If the GFS holds course, even I'll be smiling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 1 minute ago, CheeselandSkies said: Except when they start out northwest of here... Seems the only impactful weather scentral WI can get this decade is excessive rain/flooding which doesn't get my adrenaline pumping like severe and isn't photogenic like severe and snow. It's just destructive/annoying. Yeah I'm pretty much numb to it now. Take what I can get. WX model addiction hasn't been impactful to my health in yrs now. This is all bonus stat padding snows to me this early anyways. Climo and Living by Lake Michigan is not kind to me until later in Dec just in time for grinch storms lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Did I mention the SE MI Snow Magnet is in effect?? Oh yeah, I did. It won't be official until @Hillsdale chimes in, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 0z GFS just starting to roll in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 14 minutes ago, Jim Martin said: 0z GFS just starting to roll in. Looking though 54 hours, it looks a bit slower but the overall upper air look would suggest no major track shifts. Should be similar or maybe a little south of last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Looking though 54 hours, it looks a bit slower but the overall upper air look would suggest no major track shifts. Should be similar or maybe a little south of last run. Looks about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 00z GEM: I-80 Special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 1 minute ago, ams30721us said: 00z GEM: I-80 Special That is looking more like a NW outlier especially once you get further east compared to everything else that has happened today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 3 minutes ago, Stebo said: That is looking more like a NW outlier especially once you get further east compared to everything else that has happened today. Yea, I could def. see that further east. Around these, parts if I had to take a blend of the data over the past 24 hours, I would say the GEM is about how I would draw a map, in terms of the placement of the narrow swath at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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