Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Nov. 25th-26th Midwest Snowstorm Potential


Malacka11

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
2 minutes ago, Sciascia said:

New HRRR hot off the presses:

B285609F-0A42-4831-A508-58B56C2E376C.png

 >1.7" precipitation in northeast IL, at least 1.1" throughout ~all of northern IL. Have to think it's the HRRR up to its usual (excessive) games but fun to watch nonetheless

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 Mesoscale Discussion 1660
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1154 AM CST Sun Nov 25 2018

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern Iowa...northern Illinois

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 251754Z - 260000Z

   SUMMARY...A mix of sleet and snow falling across parts of eastern
   Iowa into northern Illinois, is expected to transition to mainly
   snow over the next several hours. Very heavy snow, with accumulation
   rates of at least 1-2 inches/hour, is likely.

   DISCUSSION...A narrow, west-to-east oriented band of mixed wintry
   precipitation is ongoing from an area along a Keokuk County IA to
   Cook County IL axis. Current KDVN and KLOT dual-polarimetric radar
   data suggest that mainly sleet is falling within this band of
   heavier precipitation.

   The aforementioned band of precipitation has been sustained
   predominantly by 700 mb WAA/frontogenetic forcing, which should
   continue for several more hours. As a deepening surface low
   approaches the area later this afternoon/evening, large scale lift
   should only increase with time. Meanwhile, mesoanalysis indicates
   relatively strong 925 mb CAA impinging on the horizontal
   precipitation band to the north. Latest RAP point forecast soundings
   also suggest that cooling of the low-level troposphere will
   transpire during the early afternoon hours. As such, a change over
   of sleet/mixed wintry precipitation to snow is expected. With very
   strong lift expected within a saturating/deepening dendritic growth
   zone, very heavy snowfall, with rates of at least 1-2 inches/hour
   should prevail through the afternoon hours.

5829A254-EF0B-48ED-8634-82E1D54EB353.jpeg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Fun storm to watch unfold. 

 

Bad storm to have weak warning to the public that heavy snow is on the way (GRR). I’m going to write them in NWSChat and mention the latest 12z model suit and their thinking. IMO we need a WSW for at least the I-96 - I-94 counties ENE. First large storm of the season, holiday weekend.. etc. We don’t need another 130+ car pileup. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ILX update


 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
1238 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2018  
   
UPDATE  
  
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2018  
  
HEADLINE ADJUSTMENT AND UPDATED FORECAST RECENTLY ISSUED. HAVE   
UPGRADED ENTIRE WINTER STORM WATCH AND A PORTION OF THE WINTER   
WEATHER ADVISORY TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. THIS IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT   
(6 PM TO 6 AM) ALONG AND WEST OF A CASS TO WOODFORD CO. LINE. THIS  
IS A RARE OCCURRENCE AND A QUICK STAT CHECK SHOWS ABOUT 1000 DAYS  
SINCE ILX HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST,   
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED EAST TO THE I-55 CORRIDOR. FINALLY, FOR  
AREAS NOT COVERED BY WINTER WX HEADLINES, A WIND ADVISORY HAS   
BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT DUE TO GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE COLD   
FRONT. ALL HEADLINES COVER THE 6 PM TO 6 AM TIMEFRAME.  
  
AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER UPDATE, CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR  
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FOR THE NW CWA TONIGHT. DEEP SURFACE LOW NOW  
IN SOUTH CENTRAL MO WILL TRACK NE TO NEAR KCMI/KDNV BY 06Z WITH  
PRESSURE NEAR 995 MB. STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FEATURES HAVE DEVELOPED  
A SIGNIFICANT DEFORMATION ZONE INDUCED SNOW AREA NOW IN EASTERN  
KANSAS TO WESTERN MO. THIS IS WHAT WILL BRING THE BULK OF OUR   
ACCUMULATION THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AFTER INCREASING  
COLD ADVECTION BRINGS THERMAL PROFILES BELOW 0C FROM THE NW.  
FORCING AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY POINTS TO HEAVY SNOW RATES  
1-2"/HR THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA NEAR AND NW OF THE IL RIVER  
VALLEY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACK   
SIDE OF THE LOW GUSTING TO 40 KTS TO PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.  
NORTHERN KNOX AND STARK COUNTIES ARE NOW NEAR THE MAX SNOWFALL   
AXIS WHERE ISOLATED 10"-12"+ AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. TRAVEL WILL   
QUICKLY BECOME DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA AS THE   
EVENING PROGRESSES.  
  
FARTHER SOUTHEAST IN THE ADVISORY AREA, LOWER SNOW   
AMOUNTS IN THE 1-3" RANGE WILL STILL CREATE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS DUE  
TO 40-45 MPH GUSTS. HOWEVER, LIQUID:SNOW RATIOS WILL BE HIGHER   
HERE SO AT THIS POINT EXPECT LESS SEVERE CONDITIONS THAN FARTHER   
NW.  

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...