ChiTownSnow Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: As a winter lover, you go years without a chance to really see either one. What a storm for late November Exactly! Be happy for what we get in November. Honestly, I would be happy with 3 inches to cover the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluoronium Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 NWS Wichita reporting thundersnow in the area. I am currently sitting on the brutal SE cutoff depicted by models and have no clue what I'll get here (TBH the NW cutoff is worse though). I would love to see some thundersnow later that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Flakes mixing in at DVN now, which makes sense based on radar presentation of intense lift in that band along and just N of I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Temps down to 34.7, and have wasted .23” of liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Flakes mixing in at DVN now, which makes sense based on radar presentation of intense lift in that band along and just N of I-80. Glad to have you back in the sub. It's just like the old days lol. Still raining moderately with the temp down to 34 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 I-70 closes in Kansas due to blizzard conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just now, cyclone77 said: Glad to have you back in the sub. It's just like the old days lol. Still raining moderately with the temp down to 34 here. I need to be better This storm provided a great opportunity to sneak back in. At this point, the RAP timing on the flip will be within an hour. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 8.0" in ORD, ~IMBY seems like a good baseline. Looking forward to some good >12" readings out to the north & west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Temps down to 34.7, and have wasted .23” of liquid "Sacrificed" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 One thing to watch out for in the Detroit area is how well/long does the upper level low remain closed off, and if it at least tracks over/south of the city. If it does remain closed off and the aforementioned track does happen, could see dynamic cooling flipping over the precip to snow much more quickly and producing a few surprise inches. 12z GFS/NAM/GGEM are all close to showing this outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1054 AM CST SUN NOV 25 2018 UPDATE ISSUED AT 1054 AM CST SUN NOV 25 2018 AFTER ANALYZING 12Z DATA AND SHORT TERM MODELS, WILL BE MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST REGARDING THE IMPENDING WINTER STORM. MODELS HAVE HONED IN ON STRONG SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM NORTH OF STL TO NEAR DANVILLE TONIGHT. TIMING IS A LITTLE SLOWER, DELAYING CHANGEOVER TO SNOW UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON FAR NW, AND LATER IN THE EVENING TOWARDS THE I-55 CORRIDOR. THE SYSTEM DOES APPEAR SLIGHTLY STRONGER SO EVEN WITH THE LATER CHANGEOVER HEAVY SNOW WILL STILL AFFECT THE NORTHWEST CWA. WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE HIGHER WITH UP TO 40 KTS NOW IN THE GRIDS. TREND HAS ALSO BEEN FOR A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 06Z, SO ACCUMULATING WILL BE LIKELY THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH ALL OF THESE FACTORS IN PLAY SNOW TOTAL HAVE BEEN RAISED TO 6-10" ACROSS KNOX AND STARK COUNTIES, WITH 4" ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH TO A RUSHVILLE TO ROANOKE LINE. AMOUNTS WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF FARTHER SOUTHEAST WITH AN INCH OR TWO FORECAST NEAR THE I-55 CORRIDOR. AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES THIS EVENING THE SNOW WILL BECOME DRIER IN NATURE WHICH WILL CREATE MORE OF A BLOWING AND DRIFTING ISSUE WITH GUST OVER 40 MPH. WHITEOUT TO NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NW OF THE IL RIVER. WILL BE MAKING SOME DECISIONS SOON AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES REGARDING HEADLINE ADJUSTMENT. PLAN TO HAVE UPDATED WSW AND ZFP OUT BY NOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: "Sacrificed" Expecting a switch here in DKB any minute with strong radar returns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 At LaGrange now with light rain and 39 degrees. Operations at O'Hare looked to be cranking as we drove past. Plenty of cars backed up heading into the airport.Sent from my SM-G935P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 That cut off is painful, but alas it was to be expected. Absolutely ripping snow 20 miles south of me. Not really expecting much more than flurries here, if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Several ob sites in southwest IA have been at 1/8 mile for several hours now. That's a nice long period of serious rippage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILwxchr Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 MD out for blizzard conditions now. ILX said they are coordinating with other offices on potential headline changes. Not sure if that means upgrade to blizzard warning or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just now, ILwxchr said: MD out for blizzard conditions now. ILX said they are coordinating with other offices on potential headline changes. Not sure if that means upgrade to blizzard warning or not. I suspect they may add some counties to the winter storm warning south of the current one (like peoria county) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILwxchr Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: I suspect they may add some counties to the winter storm warning south of the current one (like peoria county) Agreed. Their afd mentioned the more southern track and stronger low pressure. They said they increased grids to 40 knots (50 mph). I don't see why they wouldn't upgrade to blizzard warning based on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 6 minutes ago, ILwxchr said: MD out for blizzard conditions now. ILX said they are coordinating with other offices on potential headline changes. Not sure if that means upgrade to blizzard warning or not. I think it's a bit of everything going on right now. Given the narrowness of the band, some counties will probably get trimmed from warnings to advisories, warnings may be added to SE zones, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Based on the HRRRE probabilities (which seemed on track this morning) that's NE MO, SE IA, and W central IL that are most at risk for blizzard conditions later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 So close, yet so far from a accumulating back yard scenario. Backside mood flakes at best after a gusher of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 I think we're really about to go to town here in eastern IA. There is that area of precip (over IL) moving north towards the main band. That area is lower level lift, associated with 850 mb f-gen. It's moving relative the 700 mb f-gen, which is stationary. Once the two collocate, the lift will be even stronger with that band (hence hi-res model guidance flashing over to heavy snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Ice pellets and stray snowflakes here. That video from Kansas is intense! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Still more spread in the fine details than I would like to see at this point, but after weighing everything I am coming up with 3 or 4 inches here. I think what's also holding me from going any higher is that I've never really witnessed so much rain preceding a more significant snowfall. This area could get around an inch of rain before the changeover occurs, and then have to deal with compaction, melting, etc. since it won't be a quick drop below freezing. I am not expecting the changeover time until around 11 pm-1 am. If it happens before then, better shot to go over 4"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 28 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Expecting a switch here in DKB any minute with strong radar returns Did you make the switch yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Looking like it wants to start making that switch but still rain here a few miles north of ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILwxchr Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Blizzard Warnings going up for Adams County, IL on the north end of LSX county warning area. Starting to get some graupel to mix in here in Davenport. Going to head up toward Park View area shortly once the new products drop to see what is going on. Iowa City already looks pretty snow covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 1 minute ago, Kaner88 said: Looking like it wants to start making that switch but still rain here a few miles north of ORD. ORD is such a tough call. Not sure it switches till the main event later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Closing in on a half inch of rain already here. Temp steady at 34. The heaviest portion of the fronto band has lifted a little north of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 ILX webpage 11 am Update -- We have increased the snowfall amounts for areas from about Rushville to Bloomington northward. Totals of 5-6 inches are likely around the Peoria metro area, with 8 inches around Galesburg and Lacon. Blizzard conditions are likely in some areas west of the Illinois River this evening, as winds increase to around 40-45 mph. Any travel into this area should be done before about mid afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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