TimChgo9 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 rain here. some ragged radar returns for now, but it is starting to fill in. Rain is light to moderate at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 That RAP transition time may be too slow for the QCA. Dual-pol showing that the stronger lift/precip rates is mixing in a lot of snow just off the deck. The melting layer is getting down to just a few hundred feet AGL at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 It's not real but notice how the HRRR keeps the IL river valley around PIA a tad warmer then the surrounding area...this cuts into the snow amounts this seems to corresponds where the larger bodies of water of the IL river widen into "lakes" It has happened in that model before when temps are borderline The snow min over downtown PIA is "lower peoria lake" . the larger one just above that is "upper peoria lake" and another in Putnam county up north is "senachwine lake" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 13 minutes ago, miamarsden8 said: The Euro 12z run will be very telling, I think. But honestly, I'm rooting for y'all in Chicago and Peoria to get your southeast shift. Any southeast shift is a good shift. It’s nowcast/high res model time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Steady moderate rain falling right now. Can actually hear it on the roof. DVN CC showing the melting layer not too far aloft, with it getting pretty close to the surface in that east/west enhanced band near the QC. I'm upping my call for here/QC to 12-14". Going to be quite difficult to measure with the winds later on today/this eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 5 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: It's not real but notice how the HRRR keeps the IL river valley around PIA a tad warmer then the surrounding area...this cuts into the snow amounts this seems to corresponds where the larger bodies of water of the IL river widen into "lakes" It has happened in that model before The HRRR has problems with freshwater lakes. Too cold in the summer, too warm in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 9 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Steady moderate rain falling right now. Can actually hear it on the roof. DVN CC showing the melting layer not too far aloft, with it getting pretty close to the surface in that east/west enhanced band near the QC. I'm upping my call for here/QC to 12-14". Going to be quite difficult to measure with the winds later on today/this eve. This is going to be epic, especially for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Already some mixing occurring north of I-88 in IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Know it's nowcasting time, but GFS also took a tick South, probably 10-25 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: This is going to be epic, especially for you guys. Yeah this is going to be a blast. Already has been with the tracking, etc. You guys look very good to me. Several ob sites in south-central and southwest IA reporting 1/8 mile visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Yeah this is going to be a blast. Already has been with the tracking, etc. You guys look very good to me. Several ob sites in south-central and southwest IA reporting 1/8 mile visibility. 3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Yeah this is going to be a blast. Already has been with the tracking, etc. You guys look very good to me. Several ob sites in south-central and southwest IA reporting 1/8 mile visibility. but I hate when fgen precp is wasted as rain because of the intense band you may turn over before MLI airport..I think they are to far south at first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 It's definitely coming. Watch how the bright banding is migrating towards KDVN. Functionally this is showing the bright banding (significant mixed rain/snow) getting lower in the atmosphere (closer to a radar is closer to the ground). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just now, janetjanet998 said: but I hate when fgen precp is wasted as rain because of the intense band you may turn over before MLI airport..I think they are to far south at first Temps are slowly dropping, but still at 36. Real miserable outside with moderate rain, cold temps, and wind. HRRR showing changeover here in a few hours. Difference between awesome and epic will be if i get under the FGEN band at switchover. It’s going to park somewhere in the vicinity, models showing anywhere within a 10-20 mile spread over my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Temps are slowly dropping, but still at 36. Real miserable outside with moderate rain, cold temps, and wind. HRRR showing changeover here in a few hours. Difference between awesome and epic will be if i get under the FGEN band at switchover. It’s going to park somewhere in the vicinity, models showing anywhere within a 10-20 mile spread over my head. The hrrr has been fluncuating back and forth, wouldn’t doubt it sets up right along 88 though just looking at trends. Whoever gets under it will get a nice head start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 5 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: but I hate when fgen precp is wasted as rain because of the intense band you may turn over before MLI airport..I think they are to far south at first I hear that lol. Yeah it's raining almost heavily now with a temp of 35. Weather station crapped out a few weeks ago, so I don't know how much rain has fallen, but guessing a good 1/4". If you look closely there's some partially melted flakes coming down with the rain, so the changeover isn't too far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 2 miles south of Woodstock. A few flakes with sleet mixed in. Now in to Huntley with sleet. Temperature down to 37 degrees on car gauge.Heading down to LaGrange for a birthday party. Then making truck back to Woodstock this afternoon. Should be saucy.Sent from my SM-G935P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: I hear that lol. Yeah it's raining almost heavily now with a temp of 35. Weather station crapped out a few weeks ago, so I don't know how much rain has fallen, but guessing a good 1/4". If you look closely there's some partially melted flakes coming down with the rain, so the changeover isn't too far away. Enjoy your storm cyclone. Better put your amazing photography skills to use too. Have fun I’m super jealous. 50 and rain here with some back end flurries in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 40 degrees here. I don't think temps are supposed to start falling until later. Not very windy at the moment NNE at about 11 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 If we’ve shifted to hi-res model watching, the newest HRDPS still continues to spit out ridiculous numbers for both snowfall and precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miamarsden8 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, Sciascia said: If we’ve shifted to hi-res model watching, the newest HRDPS still continues to spit out ridiculous numbers for both snowfall and precip. It's feeling like either I'm gonna get 2 inches or 8 inches. Air temp is 38 now according to the NWS. Gonna go outside in about 40 mins and experience it for myself. Come on weather, get cold!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 DDC gusted to 62 mph at the 15z obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 17 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: The hrrr has been fluncuating back and forth, wouldn’t doubt it sets up right along 88 though just looking at trends. Whoever gets under it will get a nice head start My guess would be it pushes into northern Dekalb county, unless the north component stops soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 38 and rain here..I'm hoping for some convection that pushes cold air to surface. A big gust of wind and then.. boom... snow. That'd be perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 That east/west fronto band is looking like it's going to stall and flat out dump where it stalls in the next several hours. Looks like from about Iowa City to Clinton, and over towards Rochelle could really see it pile up underneath that. I'm kind of torn, as I would love to get in on that, but to be in on that means you'd be a bit too far north/northwest to get in on the very heavy snows later today/this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 6 minutes ago, andyhb said: DDC gusted to 62 mph at the 15z obs. HRRR has pockets of 60 MPH wind gusts near me later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILwxchr Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just now, cyclone77 said: That east/west fronto band is looking like it's going to stall and flat out dump where it stalls in the next several hours. Looks like from about Iowa City to Clinton, and over towards Rochelle could really see it pile up underneath that. I'm kind of torn, as I would love to get in on that, but to be in on that means you'd be a bit too far north/northwest to get in on the very heavy snows later today/this evening. I'm facing the same dillema. I'm sitting south of Eldridge at my parents house and its pouring rain here. This band is just sitting here, but I also want to blast south back toward home and get into the deformation band later on with those 50+ mph winds lol. Ugh. I still think the cities sees a foot out of this but someone somewhere is going to pick up 15 inches imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, ILwxchr said: I'm facing the same dillema. I'm sitting south of Eldridge at my parents house and its pouring rain here. This band is just sitting here, but I also want to blast south back toward home and get into the deformation band later on with those 50+ mph winds lol. Ugh. I still think the cities sees a foot out of this but someone somewhere is going to pick up 15 inches imo. Yeah definitely a tough choice. I think it comes down to what you want most, the best rates or the best blizzard conditions. That fronto band could really crank out some insane rates, which would be very fun. An all-out blizzard is tough to beat though, and the rates will still be very nice in the midst of that. Either way you can't lose lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILwxchr Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just now, cyclone77 said: Yeah definitely a tough choice. I think it comes down to what you want most, the best rates or the best blizzard conditions. That fronto band could really crank out some insane rates, which would be very fun. An all-out blizzard is tough to beat though, and the rates will still be very nice in the midst of that. Either way you can't lose lol. True. I'm greedy and want both haha . But if I had to choose, I'd choose the all-out blizzard conditions. I'm a huge wind fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Yeah definitely a tough choice. I think it comes down to what you want most, the best rates or the best blizzard conditions. That fronto band could really crank out some insane rates, which would be very fun. An all-out blizzard is tough to beat though, and the rates will still be very nice in the midst of that. Either way you can't lose lol. As a winter lover, you go years without a chance to really see either one. What a storm for late November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 20 minutes ago, Sciascia said: If we’ve shifted to hi-res model watching, the newest HRDPS still continues to spit out ridiculous numbers for both snowfall and precip. Of note too is that, in IL, these very high modeled snow amounts all occur after 12 pm today. So, the current mixed precipitation and/or rain is not a surprise, at least per this model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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