CoalCityWxMan Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 The hrrr has me feeling very confident, seems like it’s in agreement with the euro for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Comparing the 06z HRRR so far thru hour 18 with previous runs looks like the main snow band has ticked south and/or the main band that lifts up through N. IL has gotten juiced up. Edit: This run's gonna be wicked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 1 minute ago, Kaner88 said: Comparing the 06z HRRR so far thru hour 18 with previous runs looks like the main snow band has ticked south and/or the main band that lifts up through N. IL has gotten juiced up. Through hour 22 that surface low is about 25-30 miles southwest of previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Good lord the HRRR is going to be juiced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 06z HRRR run gonna be a big hit for the entire N IL area. Crippling blizzard it appears. Edit: It appears my site didn't update until I posted, whoops. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just now, IllinoisWedges said: 06z HRRR run gonna be a big hit for the entire N IL area. Edit: It appears my site didn't update until I posted, whoops. lol Just now, SchaumburgStormer said: Good lord the HRRR is going to be juiced Through 15 hours, already a strip of 8” down along 88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Snowfall thru hour 25. Hours of just pouring snow in NE IL, simulated reflectivity makes it look like the heaviest band doesn't even move. Fun run, if nothing else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 This hrrr run is something for the archives for N IL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 1 minute ago, Kaner88 said: Snowfall thru hour 25. Hours of just pouring snow in NE IL, simulated reflectivity makes it look like the heaviest band doesn't even move. Fun run, if nothing else Still dumping snow at that time too over N Il Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just now, SchaumburgStormer said: Still dumping snow at that time too over N Il My goodness. You guys in northern IL might not see green grass again until Memorial Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 I can only hope that run will verify. This is setting up nicely for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Not to mention widespread wind gusts of 45-55MPH...quite the blizzard being depicted here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Might have been a little too pessimistic with my 1-2" call earlier. Besides the changeover time, the big question of course is temps... will it be more like 33 or 35? That makes a difference. Most of the snow will fall with temps above 32 except perhaps at the tail end. Will probably make a final call later in the morning but I'd lean higher than earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just now, Hoosier said: Might have been a little too pessimistic with my 1-2" call earlier. Besides the changeover time, the big question of course is temps... will it be more like 33 or 35? That makes a difference. Most of the snow will fall with temps above 32 except perhaps at the tail end. Will probably make a final call later in the morning but I'd lean higher than earlier. This HRRR run is trying to get warning criteria snows down to you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 While most models are forecasting some strong winds just above the surface, the Euro is keeping the strongest (30-50 mph, gusts to 60) along the southern fringe of the steep snow line cutoff. That combined with fairly low ratios, heavy wet snow may be why there hasn't been Blizzard warnings issued up through Illinois, not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 25, 2018 Author Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just now, CoalCityWxMan said: Not to mention widespread wind gusts of 45-55MPH...quite the blizzard being depicted here. It'd be nice to wake up to blizzard warnings. This all still seems surreal. I remember up until a week ago, I was hoping we'd get something like this in January or February not in five days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Snowfall thru hour 30, still coming down in east IL into IN & MI, you get the picture. Winter wonderland not even two days removed from Thanksgiving weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just now, Kaner88 said: Snowfall thru hour 30, still coming down in east IL into IN & MI, you get the picture. Winter wonderland not even two days removed from Thanksgiving weekend @cyclone77 is buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 2+ inches of precip, too. Good Lord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 ORD just gets piledriven on the 6z HRRR...if only it were a degree or two colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 25, 2018 Author Share Posted November 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: ORD just gets piledriven on the 6z HRRR...if only it were a degree or two colder. Piledriven... cause they'll be shoveling... piles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, Kaner88 said: Snowfall thru hour 30, still coming down in east IL into IN & MI, you get the picture. Winter wonderland not even two days removed from Thanksgiving weekend I tend to err on the side of caution when the HRRR starts cranking out snow totals like that (could be my location that I always err on the side of caution lol) but if the 500mb charts it's spitting out get some backup from the other models I would take a guess and say there may be some Blizzard warnings extended into IL. just because of the travel day and morning commute on Mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 11.3" is the number ORD needs to hit to break the all time monthly November record of 14.8", 11" in Rockford also to break 14.8". There is certainly a nonzero potential here of this happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 HRRR gets the good totals into MI. Gonna be interesting to see what IWX and GRR do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 06z NAM looks like it'll make a handful-of-miles tick south, broadly same snow amounts as seen on the 00z run, through hour 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Not surprising to see things shift back south once again, after many of the 0z runs jumped north. It seems that almost every time before a sig system there is a model cycle right before that drastically changes, only to revert back.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just now, Chicago Storm said: Not surprising to see things shift back south once again, after many of the 0z runs jumped north. It seems that almost every time before a sig system there is a model cycle right before that drastically changes, only to revert back. . My boss calls it the sucker hole, its been that way for years going back to the old days. It is so true though that every single major storm has that one goofy run where things shift, sometimes radically, only to shift right back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 28 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: This HRRR run is trying to get warning criteria snows down to you I see. Not impossible but I think that is unlikely. Everything would have to go just right... no delayed changeover and not spending a ton of time in the mid 30s. I do think LOT probably expands the advisory into northwest IN, because now the slower timing means snow continuing through Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just now, Hoosier said: I see. Not impossible but I think that is unlikely. Everything would have to go just right... no delayed changeover and not spending a ton of time in the mid 30s. I do think LOT probably expands the advisory into northwest IN, because now the slower timing means snow continuing through Monday morning. You aren't far away, GRR even noted another slight shift to the south could happen with the modeling. It would go a long way for the both of us to get another tick south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 The Halloween storm of 2014 that LOT is alluding to concerning flooding didn't have the winter stuff going on with it did it? Not familiar enough but I would think if this pans out could get messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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