cyclone77 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just now, Baum said: Too many models...... Haha, that's what makes it fun IMO. Definitely frustrating at times, but to me it's what makes tracking these things interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, Baum said: Too many models...... Things you wouldn’t hear at a Victoria’s Secret Fashion Show for $200, Alex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 7 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Well, the 3km NAM just made the model porn hall of fame for this area. 3" of precip, and 2ft of snow. Obviously way overdone, but man this storm is really turning out to be something special. It also showed like 0.50” of FZR for many areas. Not really sure what was up with that. Setup doesn’t really support it. Surface temps should cool slower than those aloft in this storm. I don’t see much of a window for any mixed precip really, maybe some sleet early on in heavier bands due to temps being slightly warmer(and above freezing) around 700mb but below freezing at 850mb but mostly just clean R/S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 11 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Well, the 3km NAM just made the model porn hall of fame for this area. 3" of precip, and 2ft of snow. Obviously way overdone, but man this storm is really turning out to be something special. Wow I am literally right on the line of potentially not seeing a flake while 10 miles to the SE gets several inches. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 15 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Well, the 3km NAM just made the model porn hall of fame for this area. 3" of precip, and 2ft of snow. Obviously way overdone, but man this storm is really turning out to be something special. That cut off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 There are now multiple models showing 2"+ of precip in the main heavy snow axis across northern IL. It's not just the NAM that's going ballistic. As Ron Burgundy said this escalated quickly lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 00z HRDPS came in jacked again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 3km NAM forecast soundings are continuing to look very impressive for wind potential. 55-60kts at the top of the mixing layer, with heavy precip ongoing, and potential gravity wave interactions as well with the convection. The model is forecasting widespread 25-30kt sustained winds at the surface beneath the CCB in the heavy snow axis. That alone would imply 45mph+ gust potential, but given what I pointed out above I think we have a good chance to see 50-60mph gusts in the heavy snow axis. Really think DVN will need to upgrade much of the cwa to a blizzard warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: 00z HRDPS came in jacked again. Would pay money to have that solution pan out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: There are now multiple models showing 2"+ of precip in the main heavy snow axis across northern IL. It's not just the NAM that's going ballistic. As Ron Burgundy said this escalated quickly lol. Seems like they all are slowing and strengthening the upper levels after the sampling yesterday allowing more of the Pacific moisture to wrap up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 00z HRDPS came in jacked again. 2”+ precip totals in NE IL and 12”+ snow totals. Would be incredible to see this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 6 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: 3km NAM forecast soundings are continuing to look very impressive for wind potential. 55-60kts at the top of the mixing layer, with heavy precip ongoing, and potential gravity wave interactions as well with the convection. The model is forecasting widespread 25-30kt sustained winds at the surface beneath the CCB in the heavy snow axis. That alone would imply 45mph+ gust potential, but given what I pointed out above I think we have a good chance to see 50-60mph gusts in the heavy snow axis. Really think DVN will need to upgrade much of the cwa to a blizzard warning. The RAP actually has an area of 50 kts at 950 mb northwest of the low. That is not something you see very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 21z SREF plumes for ORD (attached) dead-set on forecasting all possible outcomes. Freeport plume mean at 10", comfortably inside a 0.13" - 19.60" range. Edit: Janesville, WI takes the cake with a range of 0.00" - 20.99". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 FWIW, HRRR is initializing quite a bit north of where the current surface low is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 39 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Wow I am literally right on the line of potentially not seeing a flake while 10 miles to the SE gets several inches. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk In the exact same boat as you. I feel your pain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 12/11/2000 and 11/21/2015 are both on the CIPS analog list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 5 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: FWIW, HRRR is initializing quite a bit north of where the current surface low is. Looks to me like the current low position is roughly on the KS/OK border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Looks to me like the current low position is roughly on the KS/OK border. If anything it initialized a tad too strong...992mb vs 994mb but placement isn't off by much. Noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 5 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: In the exact same boat as you. I feel your pain Me too. Right in the transition zone between a foot and nothing. Only the north-y 00z GFS places is square in the heavy snow axis, giving us over a foot, and I can’t trust it. The official forecast is 1.5-3 inches, but most models place us in that transition “gradient” with 2-5 inches predicted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 9 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Looks to me like the current low position is roughly on the KS/OK border. Meso agrees... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: Meso agrees... Pretty trivial I imagine but just comparing some of the 0z suite to the above image: HRRR & RAP struggling with strength, wanting it to be ~2-3mb stronger than it is. NAM 3km looks pretty spot-on with both strength and location. We'll just have to see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 993mb in Medicine Lodge KS with an east wind. I'm betting pressure's a bit lower just west of there where there's no obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 22 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 12/11/2000 and 11/21/2015 are both on the CIPS analog list. Two vastly different storms imho. Dec 2000 was a legit bliz in a cold regime autumn. 2015 was a wet dumping during 3 days of winter surrounded by torch autumn. This storm is the opposite here at least. A 3 day warm spell surrounded by BN regime autumn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 21 minutes ago, ConvectiveIA said: Me too. Right in the transition zone between a foot and nothing. Only the north-y 00z GFS places is square in the heavy snow axis, giving us over a foot, and I can’t trust it. The official forecast is 1.5-3 inches, but most models place us in that transition “gradient” with 2-5 inches predicted Well at this point I'm more inclined to believe the more northerly models. Before it looked like the low would track right along I70 but now it's looking closer to I72 which is terrible for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 56 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 00z HRDPS came in jacked again. Another tiny tick south and it will be almost all snow here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: Another tiny tick south and it will be almost all snow here! Where do you view this model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: Where do you view this model? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrdps&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018112500&fh=6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 If this has been posted apologize. ... Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 819 PM CST Sat Nov 24 2018 .UPDATE... 819 PM CST Have issued a lake shore warning for Cook County IL as well as Lake and Porter Counties in Indiana for Sunday night into Monday morning. Lake levels remain nearly 3 feet above chart datum and around 1 foot higher than the Halloween storm of 2014 which flooded north bound lanes of Lake Shore Dr in Chicago. Tough to say just how bad the lake shore flooding will get, comparing this set-up to the Oct 2014 event, this event has a more favorable wind direction and higher lake levels, but the fetch of the strongest winds will be shorter and the duration of the high winds will be less. Given the expectation of near storm force onshore winds Sunday night, there is definitely a potential for flooding making it to Lake Shore Dr, so have opted to with a warning rather than an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Not too impressed with DVN this evening. Given all that's gone on this evening with these crazy models they've been as quiet as a church mouse. They need to make some upward adjustments on amounts in their forecast grids, and also upgrade to a blizzard warning for much of the cwa. I usually try not to be too critical as obviously they're the professionals, but I think tonight they need to be a little more proactive with what's going down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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