Nov. 25th-26th Midwest Snowstorm Potential

[IllinoisWedges]

Looks like LOT hoisted winter storm warnings for most of the CWA. 

 

Edit: In response to that HRRR run above, it also has 50mph gusts for hours. 

[Malacka11]

1 minute ago, IllinoisWedges said:

Looks like LOT hoisted winter storm warnings for more of the CWA. 

Don't think I've ever heard of a 4-10 inch spread before. It's lookin up boys

[SchaumburgStormer]

2 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Don't think I've ever heard of a 4-10 inch spread before. It's lookin up boys

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
144 PM CST Sat Nov 24 2018

ILZ003>005-008-010>012-250345-
/O.UPG.KLOT.WS.A.0004.181125T1200Z-181126T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KLOT.WS.W.0003.181125T1200Z-181126T0600Z/
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Ogle-Lee-DeKalb-Kane-
Including the cities of Rockford, Belvidere, Woodstock, Oregon,
Dixon, DeKalb, Aurora, and Elgin
144 PM CST Sat Nov 24 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT
CST SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Blowing snow possible, especially
  at night. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 10 inches, with
  localized amounts up to 12 inches, are expected.

 

[Stebo]

8 minutes ago, Powerball said:

GRR went with a WWA for only 3-5". 

I disagree with that call..

[hawkeye_wx]

For my area, this is one of those classic "in the bulls-eye three days out is bad" systems.  I think that line is silly, but it worked out this time.  It should be fun for Chicago.

[Malacka11]

2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

For my area, this is one of those classic "in the bulls-eye three days out is bad" systems.  It should be fun for Chicago.

Let's see what the 18z NAM has to say on the matter.

[Malacka11]

Definitely north...

[ConvectiveIA]

18z looks terrible for dsm showing the system literally ducking under the city to go around it. My hope is that the system can somehow deepen and do something that causes it to head a little more due east then pummel Chicago with snow on its way out. I just don’t understand how it can do the limbo right under Des Moines 

[Malacka11]

12z NAM12k:

18z NAM12k:

Again, I'm a total amateur, but the one thing that sticks out to me is that storm depicted in 18z is somewhat stronger... bottoms out at like 995 millibars rather than 998 or whatever. 

[Roger Smith]

I think that one-storm two-day record from 1895 could fall with this one, 12-14" potential. Will say 11.5" ORD narrow miss on the record (as quoted earlier in the thread). GRR should probably double their call. Would go 9 inches there. DTW about 4 inches, will start as rain but gradually change over. Any place this starts as rain with east to northeast wind and 38-40 F temp will quickly change over and go all heavy snow. Where it starts at about 45 F southeast wind, could take longer but many places will lose their access to warm sector as the low rapidly occludes and snow surrounds the center. It is operating from Pacific moisture, Gulf inflow will be limited (dew points in current warm sector in 30s). Strong dynamics are the reason for the heavy precip more than Gulf moisture. The pivot south of DSM is plausible, would not be saying much more than 2" there, trending to 10" at IA-MO state border. 

[Radtechwxman]

Models need to make up their mind. 12z goes south and gets me excited then 18z goes north and screws me. I don't know what to expect at this point

[ILwxchr]

1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Models need to make up their mind. 12z goes south and gets me excited then 18z goes north and screws me. I don't know what to expect at this point

Follow the trend, don't take every model run to heart.

[Kaner88]

Point & click (using the little text blurbs) puts down an 8-16” range IMBY. Good trend, need to see what 0z suite shows to see if that 18z NAM is sniffing something out or just sniffing something else...

[Malacka11]

Personally, I know I was all about not getting my hopes up early but it's really hard not to. Sitting here in southern Dupage with at least six inches of snow would be pretty cool, and that's if the more northern solutions come to fruition. All it takes is a small bump South to get a nice bonus (if the insanity the models depict in north central IL is even possible). 

[Radtechwxman]

Well I never really been in the heart of this. Always been on edge. So any north shifts and I'm out of it. Euro has been the only one hammering my area but seems to be on it's own. Really need that low to track along or preferably south of I70

[sbnwx85]

3 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Well I never really been in the heart of this. Always been on edge. So any north shifts and I'm out of it. Euro has been the only one hammering my area but seems to be on it's own. Really need that low to track along or preferably south of I70

Same here in South Bend/Mishawaka. Euro is the only model at the moment giving me more than a 1/2 inch of slush. But because it's the Euro and because it consistently gives me about 6 inches of snow I'm hanging on until the bitter end. As has been said many times already, at least it's only November!

[RyanDe680]

For the past # of winters, doesn’t the euro always win?  I feel like this has been the 1,000,000,000,000th time

[Hoosier]

LOT headlines.  I think I will see about the same amount as my buddy in Kankakee fwiw.  I expect some gnarly conditions for a while and wouldn't be surprised to see the advisory expand east in part because of the high wind component.

[IllinoisWedges]

Blizzard warnings slowly creeping east.

[wisconsinwx]

2 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said:

For the past # of winters, doesn’t the euro always win?  I feel like this has been the 1,000,000,000,000th time

Nah, last few winters for sure, I know it's not a done deal.  For awhile it seemed like it.

[Hoosier]

3 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said:

For the past # of winters, doesn’t the euro always win?  I feel like this has been the 1,000,000,000,000th time

Nope

[TimChgo9]

It is weather like this that makes me glad I work from home. All the same, not totally prepared for this either.  Got salt, and shovels, but this is going to be "heart attack snow" from the looks of it, so clearing driveways is going to be decidedly un-fun.  

[ILwxchr]

DMX hoisting blizzard warnings. DVN should be next.

[RyanDe680]

7 minutes ago, wisconsinwx said:

Nah, last few winters for sure, I know it's not a done deal.  For awhile it seemed like it.

I was thinking the last few years the euro had a better hold on these storms. 

At least that model hasn’t been a budget cut victim. 

[ChiTownSnow]

At what point do we start watching our temps? Clouds breaking so I'm hoping for a period of clear skies tonight so temps drop more than advertised. 45 degrees IMBY right now 

[Jonbo]

Slice a knife across Des Moines with these totals each run... I'll assume the worst, wouldn't take much going north or south to drastically change amounts IMBY at this rate.

[Malacka11]

This is a map I like (posting it just for fun)

[Hoosier]

[ChiTownSnow]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Crazy!  Been fun to watch 

[ILwxchr]

No Blizzard Warning on this package from DVN. I imagine they are waiting on more data and the possibility exists for that to occur overnight. Seems as though the heavy snow axis to me will be from about Mount Pleasant, Iowa to Princeton, IL to perhaps De Kalb/Aurora area, somewhere within 50 miles or so of that line. That would be my guess. As for my backyard right now, Galesburg, I'm expecting roughly 6-8 inches. If it shifts further south or if the HRRR, NAM, RGEM are correct, that could be too low of a forecast. But i've learned over the years to forecast low versus high lol.