WinterStorm294 Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Any word on the 6z euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 LOT’s entire CWA I-80 north now under a watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 40 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: LOT’s entire CWA I-80 north now under a watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 2 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: That is the old one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCIWxGuy Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Another slight tick SE with the 12z GEFS. The 06z mean didn't get >6" south of I-80 in LOT's CWA, and mean low track is also a hair south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 3 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: That is the old one. Dang.. meant to post the new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 24, 2018 Author Share Posted November 24, 2018 4 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: That is the old one. That seems more realistic at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegoweather Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 LOT forecasts updated as well. 5-11 IMBY by KDPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Boy what a tricky call. For ORD itself, I think I'd start with 6-10". Was contemplating a bit more but just too much uncertainty with low level temps. In the heart of the city/near the lake I'd cut that to 2-4" but that is basically a stab in the dark and wouldn't be surprised if I'm wrong. In that area it looks like a lot of precip could be wasted as rain or wet snow with temps in the mid 30s. I'm definitely leaning heavily toward the close miss scenario around here, even with the 12z UKMET trying to keep my hopes up by remaining south. In fact it may be rather heartbreaking watching that band of snow ripping not too far to my north tomorrow afternoon. But all I really wanted was some snow and a period of high winds, which looks like it will happen... eventually. For my backyard, I'd only go 1-2" at this point. We will be facing similar issues as downtown Chicago with the marine influence tending to keep temps elevated until the flow turns more offshore. Still holding out a shred of hope for a colder solution but that's the way I see it for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 I didn’t see the 6z euro. Was it still amped? 12z running now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Gonna go first call 8.1” for ORD.Nice shift south of some guidance with the 12z runs. Starting to get a nice consensus on a corridor of 9-15” from MO/IA up into the LOT CWA.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCIWxGuy Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: I didn’t see the 6z euro. Was it still amped? 12z running now. Saw someone post this graphic of it on twitter, but it cuts off at I-39. You can infer totals though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 That euro appears to have gone north for us here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 12z Ukie is pretty much a whiff for RFD. Takes the low over IND, which is a green flag for Chicago, lakeshore thermal issues nonetheless. Hoping to squeeze out an inch here in IKK. Didn’t think that was going to be possible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Still an incredibly wide fan of outcomes for DTX's CWA. I don't envy them having to make this forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Wide array of possibilities for CR as well. Most likely looks like an incredibly close miss to the southeast. I stand by my first call of 1-3” for my backyard. 2-4” at CR airport and 5-8” in IC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Just looking at pure timing and speed. Appears to snow on us for about 10 hours. If we average a half inch/hour = 5 inches. Given ground temps are very warm it will struggle to accumulate in the begining If this was later in the season I'm all about the 8 to 12 amounts. but i just don't see it happening right now. Obviously I hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 12z Euro is close to an all snow scenario for Chicago, maybe eve already all snow for ORD where totals approach 12”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Euro is big again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 24, 2018 Author Share Posted November 24, 2018 Looking at all these crazy totals and all... I'll settle for 3". That'd still be the most we've gotten all season and it'll be all white outside. Don't wanna overhype to early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Surprised that with all the chatta about winds that S Lk Michigan isn't under a Storm Watch vs a Gale Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Haven't been paying attention to this as much due to other priorities, but I'll be damned if this setup on a synoptic scale doesn't remind me of GHD 2015. Quite a similar 500 mb evolution. And yeah the 12z Euro is a crush job for Chicago and vicinity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Just now, Malacka11 said: Looking at all these crazy totals and all... I'll settle for 3". That'd still be the most we've gotten all season and it'll be all white outside. Don't wanna overhype to early. I never thought I really had a shot with this, but on the off chance it came my way I had the not too lofty goal of doubling my largest even of 2". For mby, anything >4" will be a big win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Still think it’s overdone, but impressive to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 2 minutes ago, andyhb said: Haven't been paying attention to this as much due to other priorities, but I'll be damned if this setup on a synoptic scale doesn't remind me of GHD 2015. Quite a similar 500 mb evolution. And yeah the 12z Euro is a crush job for Chicago and vicinity. Reminds me more of 12-11-00 which did much better west (OMA) all the way to DTX's zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: Still think it’s overdone, but impressive to say the least 22” lollipop in lasalle county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 25 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: 12z Ukie is pretty much a whiff for RFD. Takes the low over IND, which is a green flag for Chicago, lakeshore thermal issues nonetheless. Hoping to squeeze out an inch here in IKK. Didn’t think that was going to be possible... We need road trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 1 minute ago, RogueWaves said: Reminds me more of 12-11-00 which did much better west (OMA) all the way to DTX's zone That one has some similarities as well, although I think that shortwave was a bit flatter. Something splitting down the middle with maybe a bit more weight on 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: Still think it’s overdone, but impressive to say the least Unreal. The range of solutions is giving even the best forecaster a run for their money. I’d hope that GRR and DTX put out at least a SWS or WSW this afternoon. You can always go to an advisory - but with tomorrow/tomorrow night being a big travel time, it would be wise.. especially if the Euro and like models happen to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 10 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Surprised that with all the chatta about winds that S Lk Michigan isn't under a Storm Watch vs a Gale Watch. It might get upgraded. They (they as in LOT) are already forecasting 45 kt (and 18 foot waves) and just need 50 kt for a storm watch/warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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