Nov. 25th-26th Midwest Snowstorm Potential

[ILSNOW]

 

[ConvectiveIA]

Still enough juice on the NAM 6z to give us an inch and a half. I’ll take it!

[ohwxguy]

I’d be cautious looking at those 10:1 maps. Can’t see a scario where it approaches that ratio, at least for areas along the southern fringe of the main precip axis. 

The low levels are marginal. Granted heavy enough precip could cool the column sufficiently, but 10:1 would take a lot of luck. 

[Natester]

12z NAM gives us nada, just like the Euro.  Next!  I'd be shocked if we got an inch.  At least it's only late November.

[hlcater]

I still don’t think CR gets anything, but  using the NAM is unwise. That model has had literally no consistency and wavers N/S every other run. It doesn’t have a clue. I do think the GFS caves, but the NAM probably isn’t the best indicator of that.

[AppsRunner]

SREF Plumes for the Des Moines folks. Take your pick

[hawkeye_wx]

Despite currently being in the warning area, I also don't think Cedar Rapids will get much... UK nothing, Euro nothing, NAM nothing.  The GFS should cave hard today.

[CoalCityWxMan]

Looks plausible that there could be a narrow swath of 12”+ amounts. 

[SchaumburgStormer]

Somewhat insane that we are 30 hours from precip onset, and we still have such a model spread. Real tough for LOT, as the current GFS verbatim is a swing and a miss, NAMs with extreme N and S cutoffs WITHIN the CWA, and the Euro with a historic November blizzard. 

I like where I am sitting, but still a bit more nervous/uncertain than I should be this close to the storm. 

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Despite currently being in the warning area, I also don't think Cedar Rapids will get much... UK nothing, Euro nothing, NAM nothing.  The GFS should cave hard today.

HRRR has you right around 4"

EPS has the greatest chance for 6+ right on a OTM to DVN line, but you're right on the edge of the 6" mean envelope. If I remember correctly () advisory is 3-6" for DVN (sorry we're 4-6" now at GYX), and I think an advisory is a good place to set the expectations right now.

[RogueWaves]

7 hours ago, Powerball said:

This upcoming system looks interesting. It actually seems like it could be a hybrid of 12/11/00 and 12/1/06, IMO

I was in town all week for the holiday, but will be leaving tonight. I will admit though, part of me will be jealous if a EURO-like solution happens.

 

PB! Hope your holiday visit was good. Yep, you moved one winter too soon. Not sure if Detroit proper gets in on this early one but there should be some thump-tastic rippage somewhere in SMI. Hoping to be included in that zone. Today should set the expectation. GRR not putting us under at least an SWS is no surprise tho.

[Radtechwxman]

36hr 12z hrrr looks like it has been smoking the same stuff gfs is. Very far north low track. Crazy how close we are and still no clue

[DaveNay]

Just now, SchaumburgStormer said:

Somewhat insane that we are 30 hours from precip onset, and we still have such a model spread.

I think this comment has been written nearly verbatim in at least 50% of the storm threads every year. 

[OceanStWx]

Notably the 06z GFS was too deep with the wave across the northern Rockies. Not surprising it cut more than the other models then.

 

[Baum]

LOT extended the watch a little further south and east as of 9am.

[ConvectiveIA]

12z RGEM comes in a little bit south but still suggests a heavy dusting to a few inches where most of the Iowa posters including myself are located 

[SchaumburgStormer]

RGEM south, with absolute rip city over central LOT 

[ChiTownSnow]

1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

RGEM south, with absolute rip city over central LOT 

Gonna be a "nowcast" situation. Big bust potential with this in city though.  Agree with the current 3-6 north 1-3 south of 55 that local stations reporting 

[ILSNOW]

12 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

RGEM south, with absolute rip city over central LOT 

I know 10:1 ratio's are high

 

[OceanStWx]

RGEM doesn't look like any glaring initialization issues at 12z. 

The wave itself around Yellowstone back into ID is a bit in no man's land with raobs, but IR satellite supports a closed feature there.

[ILSNOW]

GFS thru 42

 

[SchaumburgStormer]

2 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

GFS thru 42

 

Ladies and gentlemen, we have a cave.

Monster run for north central LOT. 

[DaveNay]

1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Ladies and gentlemen, we have a cave.

Genoa-Hampshire bomb.

[SchaumburgStormer]

[CoalCityWxMan]

38 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

RGEM south, with absolute rip city over central LOT 

It’s like a smaller version of the euro, but similar amounts. Looks like a bullseye over Dekalb. You work in Syacmore right?

[SchaumburgStormer]

2 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

It’s like a smaller version of the euro, but similar amounts. Looks like a bullseye over Dekalb. You work in Syacmore right?

Indeed, but am off tomorrow. Will be home to enjoy this one. 

 

Which is nice... there are only so many hours I want to spend babysitting “drivers in ditches” 

[ILwxchr]

With the latest GFS caving southeast and the NAM/NAM3k showing similar totals, I'm thinking 5-8" of wind blown heavy wet snow for my backyard (Galesburg where I'm at now for the holidays). Quad Cities area I think will see the winner from this with a band of 8 to perhaps 10"+ from Southeast Iowa through the QCA up to Dekalb area. I wouldn't be surprised to see a foot or more in that band but the fast movement of this on the NAM has me concerned that we may not see it linger long enough for that high of a total. But again we have several models suggesting a band of those higher totals so I guess if we get several hours of 2" per hour rates, its not out of the cards. The HRRR 36 hour forecast shows winds out of the north at 10m over 40 knots here in Northwest IL. Wondering if DVN will pull the plug on a blizzard warning tomorrow at some point.

[ILSNOW]

National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
958 AM CST Sat Nov 24 2018

.UPDATE...
944 AM CST

While we are still waiting on the GFS and ECMWF 12z runs, several
of the near term models are attempting to hone in on the axis of
heaviest snow and strong winds on Sunday. The general consensus to
this point has been through an axis northwest of Chicago. While
this is still generally the case, especially given the thermal
profiles, the latest NAM, the ECMWF (numerous runs to this point),
and some of the WRF NMM/ARW models suggest an axis between I-90/88
and I-80 could certainly be the favored corridor.

Once rain changes over to snow, it will likely be coming down
very hard, so in spite of the marginal surface temperatures to
start, snow once it starts to fall will rapidly accumulate with
heavy, wet slushy snow. While exact transition times are up in
the air, travelers should be prepared from mid morning northwest
to early to mid afternoon across portions of the Chicago metro,
for a quick transition/deterioration, given the challenges on
exact transition/Snow onset time.

In addition, strong winds will eventually accompany the heavy
snow, so even with snow amounts in question, heavy snow rates and
strong winds will make for very hazardous travel on a busy travel
day. Given the signal for a possibly farther south corridor, we
have expanded the Winter Storm Watch to include a tier of counties
farther south and east with this morning update. These counties
start and end a bit later than the counties farther west.

[McDude]

Is the GFS having problems with the forecast/temperatures around the southern edge of Lake Michigan? 

[CoalCityWxMan]

3 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Indeed, but am off tomorrow. Will be home to enjoy this one. 

 

Which is nice... there are only so many hours I want to spend babysitting “drivers in ditches” 

Yeah, and with college kids returning tomorrow in droves, you’d be more than busy lol