cyclone77 Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 1 minute ago, ConvectiveIA said: I shall go down with this ship. I raise my white flag and cry as she lists to the side and sinks below the surface. I thought you were quoting that Dido song when I first read that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Guessing winter storm watches will be extended a bit south with the overnight package.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 GFS doubles down in the north camp, Euro says “hold my beer”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 I'm not exaggerating when I say that the Euro would present one of the toughest/highest bust potential forecasts ever for the city of Chicago. How much you would forecast close to the lake/downtown is really challenging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Just now, Hoosier said: I'm not exaggerating when I say that the Euro would present one of the toughest/highest bust potential forecasts ever for the city of Chicago. How much you would forecast close to the lake/downtown is really challenging. Yeah, this is NOVEMBER for crying out loud. Even in the Northland, late Nov storms will rain along the W coast of Lk Huron. Places like Alpena and Oscoda get totally screwed on these early season specials. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 7 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I'm not exaggerating when I say that the Euro would present one of the toughest/highest bust potential forecasts ever for the city of Chicago. How much you would forecast close to the lake/downtown is really challenging. Yeah that's definitely going to be a challenge in the next 12-18hrs. First step is to issue watches to the southeast of where they currently are. Then hopefully the high-res guidance and additional GFS/Euro runs will help pin things down by early tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 4 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Yeah, this is NOVEMBER for crying out loud. Even in the Northland, late Nov storms will rain along the W coast of Lk Huron. Places like Alpena and Oscoda get totally screwed on these early season specials. The 2015 storm has been talked about, but a better comparison just from a wind perspective of the wind howling off the lake in a late November snow setup may be the 11/24/2004 storm. Chicago proper got screwed in that storm, but I think lake temps were a bit warmer than they are now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 While most of the leaves are off the trees now I'd have to believe a heavy, wet snow with the kinds of wind gusts the Euro is currently forecasting would lead to numerous power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 This would be a complete holiday travel disaster. If the euro or any of the stronger solutions panned out many roads would be impossible to drive on, and the airports would be a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 1 minute ago, CoalCityWxMan said: This would be a complete holiday travel disaster. If the euro or any of the stronger solutions panned out many roads would be impossible to drive on, and the airports would be a mess. Well, adjusting for seasonal month of November, these maps need to be taken with a grain of salt. Having said that, it should be interesting for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Yes it's the Euro and yes we had partial RAOB sampling, but keep some perspective for now. We just had this much tamer solution at 12z. I'll be more convinced if we see something like it again on the 12z Sat run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Switched a flight from Sunday to Monday this morning after United waived the change fee due to this system, if the Euro pans out Monday won't be good enough. Oh well, what's better than heavy, wet snow on one of the busiest travel days of the year? /s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Euro cutoff is literally over my house. We'll see if it or the GFS buckles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 This upcoming system looks interesting. It actually seems like it could be a hybrid of 12/11/00 and 12/1/06, IMO I was in town all week for the holiday, but will be leaving tonight. I will admit though, part of me will be jealous if a EURO-like solution happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Nothing like a bigass area of 40-50dbz rippage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Just now, IllinoisWedges said: Nothing like a bigass area of 40-50dbz rippage. The 36 hour hrrr has ratios of like 5:1 in that band lol. But it’s the 36 hour hrrr so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 1 minute ago, IllinoisWedges said: Nothing like a bigass area of 40-50dbz rippage. imo that would be a slightly farther north version of the Euro if it went out far enough. In other words, big time in northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 06z NAM looks a little stronger/slower with about the same placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Both NAMs are definitely further southwest at 36 compared to the GFS by almost 100 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 That's a drastic shift from the 0z run a few hours ago. Wouldn't buy it. Waiting on 12z runs with fresh data and a full sampling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 4 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: That's a drastic shift from the 0z run a few hours ago. Wouldn't buy it. Waiting on 12z runs with fresh data and a full sampling Interestingly enough, the 06z runs last night were when we saw the massive shift back north after coming south all day on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 EPS mean is basically the OP Euro in terms of both track and the swath of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 My office added Kane and Lake to the watch. Having been at the office I can say there was a friendly discussion on whether to include Cook and DuPage and LaSalle. I personally would've included those counties in the watch with the support of some of the models and it being so close to the event and the major travel impacts likely, despite our official amounts being below warning criteria of 6"+. There's certainly very high bust potential, especially in the city of Chicago, particularly near the lake with strong winds from the lake. Have to think the Euro is overdone because it's just so extreme but the more tame previous few runs would still be high impact. DVN is going with a warning, ILX and MKX staying with watch. We'll see how this all goes later today. What an incredibly challenging forecast, likely owing to the complex evolution of the parent wave and ULL and degree of phasing and where it occurs. Edit: We did end up going with LaSalle County in the watch, decision was probably helped by DVN going warning to Bureau County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 8 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: My office added Kane and Lake to the watch. Having been at the office I can say there was a friendly discussion on whether to include Cook and DuPage and LaSalle. I personally would've included those counties in the watch with the support of some of the models and it being so close to the event and the major travel impacts likely, despite our official amounts being below warning criteria of 6"+. There's certainly very high bust potential, especially in the city of Chicago, particularly near the lake with strong winds from the lake. Have to think the Euro is overdone because it's just so extreme but the more tame previous few runs would still be high impact. DVN is going with a warning, ILX and MKX staying with watch. We'll see how this all goes later today. What an incredibly challenging forecast, likely owing to the complex evolution of the parent wave and ULL and degree of phasing and where it occurs. You need >50% confidence to issue a watch, right? I may be off so correct me if I'm wrong. Could certainly make a case for issuing a watch for that trio of counties. In any event, hopefully it is communicated that this has a chance to be highly disruptive even outside of the current watch area. Btw, some sick wind fields on the 6z RGEM haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 1 hour ago, Powerball said: This upcoming system looks interesting. It actually seems like it could be a hybrid of 12/11/00 and 12/1/06, IMO I was in town all week for the holiday, but will be leaving tonight. I will admit though, part of me will be jealous if a EURO-like solution happens. Flying into Chicago on Sunday mid-morning. I plan to beat the changeover. Will be in town all week next week. This is going to be a big storm for those that get under that death-band and plenty of cold to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 You need >50% confidence to issue a watch, right? I may be off so correct me if I'm wrong. Could certainly make a case for issuing a watch for that trio of counties. In any event, hopefully it is communicated that this has a chance to be highly disruptive even outside of the current watch area. Btw, some sick wind fields on the 6z RGEM hahaIt's >50% confidence in attaining local warning criteria within the county. I'm not a huge fan of lowering headline issuance criteria too much but I think it's close enough to justify it in this case. The winds look to be a major issue combined with the heavy wet snow and even if lakeside Chicago struggles to accumulate, winds straight of frictionless could be strong enough to cause wind damage. Also lakeshore flooding a significant concern. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 I think LOT's ideas of how this will lay out are spot on. In thier CWA Rockford looks like ground zero. Nice way to start the season....storm tracking on Thanksgiving Weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 While not as big of a story as what LOT has to deal with, the spread for Des Moines metro I’d rather insane. The GFS basically bullseyes DSM, the euro has about 1” of snow, and the NAMs have a very sharp gradient essentially through the metro. Can’t imagine any of those folks are having fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 12z NAM and nest pretty sizable shifts south. Main wave coming out of the plains is slower and less phasing to aid in pulling it north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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