IllinoisWedges Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 00z Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Euro is coming in hot..and staying put Edit: N IL is buried.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Haven't viewed everything yet in the model runs but my gut feeling is this is going to dampen out a bit with time as it heads Northeast and occludes off and the 500mb wave gets perhaps a bit less impressive also. With that said I think that the further South outliers may be on to something but perhaps not quite as far to the South as they are depicting. There will still be some nice WAA and frontogenesic forcing to help with the precip rates, also will have a window of some good UVV as well. Just not confident that higher amounts will completely pan out unless they are in isolated spots. We'll see what Euro says here in a bit.... Wouldn't be shocked to see some tweaking of watches with the morning AFD's. This is a nasty call to make for the folks on the hot seat in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 37 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Nearly all of the 0z GEFS members are south of the op... Ensemble #8 caught my eye from this suite of solutions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Euro is coming in hot..and staying put Edit: N IL is buried..Buried is actually an understatement from this run lol.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Omg the Euro. Hottest run locally since GHD II. Widespread 14-18". Would be paralyzing shutdown blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 2 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Buried is actually an understatement from this run lol. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk I hope you or Izzi is doing the overnight afd lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 I’ll take my 1-3” and treat it like a blizzard. Chicago doesn’t lose. Kinda sour not because I’m missing it but because Chicago wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 3 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Omg the Euro. Hottest run locally since GHD II. Widespread 14-18". Would be paralyzing shutdown blizzard That was one hell of a run lol. A little less out this way at "only" a foot, but I guess we'll just have to settle for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 24, 2018 Author Share Posted November 24, 2018 Just now, cyclone77 said: That was one hell of a run lol. A little less out this way at "only" a foot, but I guess we'll just have to settle for that. If only......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Holy mackerel Euro... wow. Well it is pretty much holding serve, although appears a hair further to the SE on track but negligible as best I can tell right now. Impressive dynamics it brings together and just hammers Northern Illinois in particular. Don't know if the storm will actually be that juicy but wow. That is probably the most impressive storms potentially since GHD 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 2 minutes ago, hlcater said: I’ll take my 1-3” and treat it like a blizzard. Chicago doesn’t lose. Kinda sour not because I’m missing it but because Chicago wins. They've had several crap winters now in a row without a decent storm. I said this year they'd be due.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 I hope you or Izzi is doing the overnight afd lolYou don’t want the latter right now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 I hope you or Izzi is doing the overnight afd lolI'm not but I'm here geeking out lol and one of us will have evening update tomorrow.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Just now, RogueWaves said: They've had several crap winters now in a row without a decent storm. I said this year they'd be due.. Nah they manage at least an 8-10” storm every year, even in down years. Which I’d argue none of the past have been, at least for the northern suburbs. Not that I care enough to argue about it. Just saying Chicago has much better luck than we do despite having only slightly better odds statistically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 1 minute ago, hlcater said: Nah they manage at least an 8-10” storm every year, even in down years. Which I’d argue none of the past have been, at least for the northern suburbs. Not that I care enough to argue about it. Just saying Chicago has much better luck than we do despite having only slightly better odds statistically. The next best outcome when a storm doesn't slam you is that it slams somebody in the sub. Better than the evil empire that includes NYC and BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: The next best outcome when a storm doesn't slam you is that it slams somebody in the sub. Better than the evil empire that includes NYC and BOS. That is true. But at least for me, Chicago and snow storms is like a grudge. I’d rather IWX or central Illinois got it, granted they were never in the cards with this particular storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 2 minutes ago, hlcater said: Nah they manage at least an 8-10” storm every year, even in down years. Which I’d argue none of the past have been, at least for the northern suburbs. Not that I care enough to argue about it. Just saying Chicago has much better luck than we do despite having only slightly better odds statistically. Not sure they did in 16-17, but yes, the S GL's region (and I share a lot of what hits Chicago-land) has been enjoying a great couple of decades in this century. Won't argue that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 When do you all think precip will most likely start for the Chicago metro area? I know a bunch of people driving back to school then including me and definitely want to leave the area before this hits (driving down to Champaign). Been following this thread for a bit (as usual) and seems like it might be a big one that I will sadly miss out on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 11 minutes ago, hlcater said: I’ll take my 1-3” and treat it like a blizzard. Chicago doesn’t lose. Kinda sour not because I’m missing it but because Chicago wins. Euro. 1-3 inches in linn county on this run? Does that mean we still get a couple inches in DSM too? If so, that means for central IA, euro ticked north. It had us at just about nothing at 12z. Given the curve of the system as it is depicted on models tunneling through southern IA, 1-3 inches in Haiwatha means 1-3 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The next best outcome when a storm doesn't slam you is that it slams somebody in the sub. Better than the evil empire that includes NYC and BOS. And WAY better than a zzzz-fest pattern. I think it pained Bastardi a few days ago in his daily update to circle the midwest and WMI as a region likely to get slammed with a bliz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Just now, ConvectiveIA said: Euro. 1-3 inches in linn county on this run? Does that mean we still get a couple inches in DSM too? If so, that means for central IA, euro ticked north. It had us at just about nothing at 12z. Given the curve of the system as it is depicted on models tunneling through southern IA, 1-3 inches in Haiwatha means 1-3 here Nah on the euro I don’t see any QPF. Neither does Des Moines. Ultimate screw you for CR/DMX/IC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Euro showing 50-60kts at 850mb Sunday evening over northern IL. Wonder if there'll be some lake enhancement like what happened with the GHDI storm. Verbatim the Euro would indicate some pretty tough conditions along the LM shorline not all too different than GHDI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 I don't even know what I would do if I were DTX, this is probably one of their harder forecasts because you have one model steadfast on a ENE sliding storm and then you have the wind shield wiper supreme with the NAM/GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 3 minutes ago, homedis said: When do you all think precip will most likely start for the Chicago metro area? I know a bunch of people driving back to school then including me and definitely want to leave the area before this hits (driving down to Champaign). Been following this thread for a bit (as usual) and seems like it might be a big one that I will sadly miss out on. Probably in the morning. Conditions wouldn't really go downhill until afternoon though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Just now, hlcater said: Nah on the euro I don’t see any QPF. Neither does Des Moines. Ultimate screw you for CR/DMX/IC. I shall go down with this ship. I raise my white flag and cry as she lists to the side and sinks below the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Probably in the morning. Conditions wouldn't really go downhill until afternoon though.Thanks, I appreciate the response! Looks like I will definitely leave before the original plan at noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Euro showing 50-60kts at 850mb Sunday evening over northern IL. Wonder if there'll be some lake enhancement like what happened with the GHDI storm. Verbatim the Euro would indicate some pretty tough conditions along the LM shorline not all too different than GHDI. Big difference is a much wetter snow this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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