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Nov. 25th-26th Midwest Snowstorm Potential


Malacka11

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  On 11/25/2018 at 7:30 AM, IllinoisWedges said:

06z HRRR run gonna be a big hit for the entire N IL area. 

 

Edit: It appears my site didn't update until I posted, whoops. lol 

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  On 11/25/2018 at 7:30 AM, SchaumburgStormer said:

Good lord the HRRR is going to be juiced 

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Through 15 hours, already a strip of 8” down along 88

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Might have been a little too pessimistic with my 1-2" call earlier.  Besides the changeover time, the big question of course is temps... will it be more like 33 or 35?  That makes a difference.  Most of the snow will fall with temps above 32 except perhaps at the tail end.  Will probably make a final call later in the morning but I'd lean higher than earlier.

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  On 11/25/2018 at 7:38 AM, Hoosier said:

Might have been a little too pessimistic with my 1-2" call earlier.  Besides the changeover time, the big question of course is temps... will it be more like 33 or 35?  That makes a difference.  Most of the snow will fall with temps above 32 except perhaps at the tail end.  Will probably make a final call later in the morning but I'd lean higher than earlier.

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This HRRR run is trying to get warning criteria snows down to you 

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While most models are forecasting some strong winds just above the surface, the Euro is keeping the strongest (30-50 mph, gusts to 60) along the southern fringe of the steep snow line cutoff.  That combined with fairly low ratios, heavy wet snow may be why there hasn't been Blizzard warnings issued up through Illinois, not sure. 

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  On 11/25/2018 at 7:37 AM, CoalCityWxMan said:

Not to mention widespread wind gusts of 45-55MPH...quite the blizzard being depicted here. 

D7FE1B20-30F6-405E-90D0-D12D7C37B4C1.png

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It'd be nice to wake up to blizzard warnings. This all still seems surreal. I remember up until a week ago, I was hoping we'd get something like this in January or February not in five days.

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  On 11/25/2018 at 7:40 AM, Kaner88 said:

Snowfall thru hour 30, still coming down in east IL into IN & MI, you get the picture. Winter wonderland not even two days removed from Thanksgiving weekend

HRRRCHI_prec_kuchsnow_030.png

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I tend to err on the side of caution when the HRRR starts cranking out snow totals like that (could be my location that I always err on the side of caution lol) but if the 500mb charts it's spitting out get some backup from the other models I would take a guess and say there may be some Blizzard warnings extended into IL. just because of the travel day and morning commute on Mon.

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  On 11/25/2018 at 8:10 AM, Chicago Storm said:

Not surprising to see things shift back south once again, after many of the 0z runs jumped north.

It seems that almost every time before a sig system there is a model cycle right before that drastically changes, only to revert back.


.

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My boss calls it the sucker hole, its been that way for years going back to the old days. It is so true though that every single major storm has that one goofy run where things  shift, sometimes radically, only to shift right back.

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  On 11/25/2018 at 7:39 AM, SchaumburgStormer said:

This HRRR run is trying to get warning criteria snows down to you 

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I see.  Not impossible but I think that is unlikely.  Everything would have to go just right... no delayed changeover and not spending a ton of time in the mid 30s. 

I do think LOT probably expands the advisory into northwest IN, because now the slower timing means snow continuing through Monday morning.  

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  On 11/25/2018 at 8:13 AM, Hoosier said:

I see.  Not impossible but I think that is unlikely.  Everything would have to go just right... no delayed changeover and not spending a ton of time in the mid 30s. 

I do think LOT probably expands the advisory into northwest IN, because now the slower timing means snow continuing through Monday morning.  

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You aren't far away, GRR even noted another slight shift to the south could happen with the modeling. It would go a long way for the both of us to get another tick south.

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