Hoosier Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 12z Euro is a crush job in the heavy band. And big nw to se gradient around Chicago metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 22, 2018 Author Share Posted November 22, 2018 On 11/22/2018 at 6:34 PM, Hoosier said: 12z Euro is a crush job in the heavy band. And big nw to se gradient around Chicago metro. Expand Be still, my heart. Do you have a pic by any chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 On 11/22/2018 at 6:34 PM, Hoosier said: 12z Euro is a crush job in the heavy band. And big nw to se gradient around Chicago metro. Expand 10:1 Euro map. Taking a risk posting it, but it's freely available on weather.us now(though not rendered out that far yet). I also think they adjusted their color curve up a few notches. Cyan used to be 24" and pink used to be 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Closer look for N IL folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 12z Euro would be beautiful for my area. I'm not quite sold that this won't end up a bit NW of here, but I like how it looks right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 One or two more shifts SE and we are in business. That storm you mentioned @Hoosier is looking damn close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 GEOS must be back for Thanksgiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Fwiw, the November 2015 storm that screwed downtown Chicago had a water temp at the southern buoy of 49F, and 850 mb temps around -5C to -6C for most of that storm. This morning's reading at the southern buoy was 44F. This setup is different in that it will start out warmer and then the caa comes crashing in. Of course all of this will be moot if the track shifts northwest enough to take most of the metro area out of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Pretty narrow swath of heavy snows - not surprising given the time of year. This one looks to be a nail biter. A lot has to go right and a lot can change. Snow should be as wet/thick as Thanksgiving gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Total precip as snow on 12z Euro. Probably figure ratios averaging solidly less than 10:1, especially lakeside in Chicago. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 On 11/22/2018 at 6:54 PM, UMB WX said: GEOS must be back for Thanksgiving Expand With the -NAO, -AO and PNA turning positive the jackpot may end up even a bit south of Geos' old hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 On 11/22/2018 at 7:26 PM, wisconsinwx said: With the -NAO, -AO and PNA turning positive the jackpot may end up even a bit south of Geos' old hood. Expand The Blizzard of December 2-4, 1990 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Euro ensembles are definitely a bit south of previous runs, but split fairly distinctly. Won’t be surprised to see shifts back NW though as this seems to be the time (~48-96hrs) where models play shenanigans before coming to consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Quote A significant winter storm may affect post-Thanksgiving travel Saturday Night into Monday across parts of the Midwest. A swath of heavy snow is likely, and the heavy snow is likely to be accompanied by strong winds. Continue to check for forecast updates, as details may change. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 I'm going to play grinch again. The pattern after this storm sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 18z GFS looks a lot like the prior run. Still in that south camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 22, 2018 Author Share Posted November 22, 2018 At what point do the NAMs become worthy of a glance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 On 11/22/2018 at 10:17 PM, Malacka11 said: At what point do the NAMs become worthy of a glance? Expand It's fine to look. Now at what point is it worth talking about seriously is another matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 22, 2018 Author Share Posted November 22, 2018 On 11/22/2018 at 10:38 PM, Hoosier said: It's fine to look. Now at what point is it worth talking about seriously is another matter. Expand Fair enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 On 11/22/2018 at 11:42 PM, SchaumburgStormer said: Expand That’d be a nice event for much of the area, sharp cutoff along I-55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 I think the GFS is too far SE and too progressive as it often is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Looking at various model fields/soundings, one of the things I noticed is the layer of fairly steep lapse rates aloft. One ramification of that could be a quicker southeastward collapse of the rain/snow line than modeled if heavier precip rates or even some convective elements materialize. This is gonna be a fun system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 On 11/23/2018 at 12:23 AM, hlcater said: I think the GFS is too far SE and too progressive as it often is. Expand Different type of set up this time, this is essentially 3 systems. One that comes through Friday into Saturday, a second low into Canada across Lake Superior on Sunday and then the main system for snow Monday. System 1 and 2 are trending faster and stronger which is pushing system 3 further southeast, especially because of system 2. Things could of course change between now and then but those first 2 systems are much closer than system 3 and dictate what will happen down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Yikes, WI gets almost nothing except in the far SE according to that GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 On 11/23/2018 at 1:16 AM, Stebo said: Different type of set up this time, this is essentially 3 systems. One that comes through Friday into Saturday, a second low into Canada across Lake Superior on Sunday and then the main system for snow Monday. System 1 and 2 are trending faster and stronger which is pushing system 3 further southeast, especially because of system 2. Things could of course change between now and then but those first 2 systems are much closer than system 3 and dictate what will happen down the road. Expand We’ll see, but given that the GFS is so much faster compared to consensus and given history of similar shenanigans, I find it difficult to put much weight on it, especially because it’s the outlier. DVN agreed in their AFD(either current or the 3am one) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 On 11/23/2018 at 1:29 AM, hlcater said: We’ll see, but given that the GFS is so much faster compared to consensus and given history of similar shenanigans, I find it difficult to put much weight on it, especially because it’s the outlier. DVN agreed in their AFD(either current or the 3am one) Expand Is it an outlier? Euro/NAM/FV3-GFS all trended SE over the last day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 On 11/23/2018 at 1:43 AM, Stebo said: Is it an outlier? Euro/NAM/FV3-GFS all trended SE over the last day. Expand I’d still say so, it’s still well SE of the Euro and FV3 especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 On 11/23/2018 at 1:50 AM, hlcater said: I’d still say so, it’s still well SE of the Euro and FV3 especially. Expand I guess we will see but there is a very distinct trend in all the models and it is not because of the snow system but all the stuff ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Something out outliered the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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