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Nov. 25th-26th Midwest Snowstorm Potential


Malacka11

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Gut tells me it’ll shift a *little* SE and slightly weaker than currently projected just based off trends/how these sort of events seem to usually evolve. Probably won’t see much here but wouldn’t be surprised if areas on the border right now (Dekalb-Mendota areas NW) see a good amount from this, especially if that feature Hoosier talked about continues to be more prominent. 

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Could love me some thump transition snow if things go favorably. GRR's afternoon AFD seemed encouraging. They like the follow-on LES as the ULL does it's same loop-de-loop over the E Lakes. Seems to be a theme so far this early cold season. IF we can ever get one of these when it's cold enough for snow front and back sides, it could be quite the event for parts of SWMI. But, back to this system and it's wet front end

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00z GFS and 00z Canadian model are in pretty good agreement of a storm track. 00z Euro has wind gusts approaching 50 mph on the backside of this low, which given the extremely packed isobars on the GFS, I'm inclined to believe that will happen and then some....Someone is going to see the "b" word out of this if we see that scenario. I haven't seen a snow map for the 00z Euro yet, but I'm guessing its similar to the other models if Hawkeye is looking at a foot of snow.....going to be a fun next few days. 

Screen Shot 2018-11-22 at 12.56.46 AM.png

Screen Shot 2018-11-22 at 12.51.15 AM.png

 

I'll be in the QCA area until Tuesday morning, so this will be fun. Either I'll kill it or it will be an awesome time lol.

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Whoa! Needless to say Sunday travel in the region is looking pretty rough at the moment. Yikes! 6"-12" snow totals along with sustained winds of at least 20-25mph and gusts 35-40mph, is going to create big problems. 

Also, this  year the cold has already been something else, but the New Euro is indicating a pretty wide swath of sub zero lows by Tuesday morning. Talk about looking and feeling like Winter around here. Of course, I have to remind myself Winter officially arrives in about 3 weeks! :o

 

 

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11 minutes ago, ILwxchr said:

00z GFS and 00z Canadian model are in pretty good agreement of a storm track. 00z Euro has wind gusts approaching 50 mph on the backside of this low, which given the extremely packed isobars on the GFS, I'm inclined to believe that will happen and then some....Someone is going to see the "b" word out of this if we see that scenario. I haven't seen a snow map for the 00z Euro yet, but I'm guessing its similar to the other models if Hawkeye is looking at a foot of snow.....going to be a fun next few days. 

I'll be in the QCA area until Tuesday morning, so this will be fun. Either I'll kill it or it will be an awesome time lol.

 

 

00z.JPG

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Also for the QCA, looks like the new Euro joins the GFS/CMC in a faster flip to snow. Looks like anytime from lunch onward now, as opposed to waiting through Sunday night. In fact, temps look to only warm into the mid 30s or so now at best before the northerly winds kick in, and begin to cool the column. 

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35 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

12" or bust!

Pretty impressive looking system.  50-55kt cold conveyor at 850mb on the Euro.  Very strong winds are definitely going to cause problems wherever that heavy snow falls.

Yep.  Even in areas east of the heavy snow totals, there could be a period of fairly intense conditions as that wind swath translates east.

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7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yep.  Even in areas east of the heavy snow totals, there could be a period of fairly intense conditions as that wind swath translates east.

True, and just looking at modeled temps, they are going to be in that 30-32 range, so the heavy, wet snow once again, looks to be the primary texture for sure. 

w.JPG

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32 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Still thinking we see a NW trend, given overall strength of the system and time of year. Though the system Friday into Saturday and the ensuing CAA may prevent that from occurring.

This has been such a bizarre fall I'm throwing climo in the trash.  No outcome will surprise me lol.  

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ICON model really looks impressive for the DVN cwa.  Really not sure how accurate that model is since I usually don't follow it.  It would imply blizzard, or near blizzard conditions for Sunday afternoon/evening for this area.  GEM looks pretty similar, but it's not quite as deep of a system and also a bit quicker.  Still a long ways to go, so trying not to get too excited just yet lol.  

EDIT:  The difference between the GFS and the FV3-GVS are pretty lol worthy.  The FV3 amps up the system much quicker, and results in a much further northwest placement in the heavy snow axis.  That's a scenario we'll have to watch out for in this area.  If the system amps up too quickly this area would only get some tail-end lighter snows and gusty winds.

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29 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

EDIT:  The difference between the GFS and the FV3-GVS are pretty lol worthy.  The FV3 amps up the system much quicker, and results in a much further northwest placement in the heavy snow axis.  That's a scenario we'll have to watch out for in this area.  If the system amps up too quickly this area would only get some tail-end lighter snows and gusty winds.

You ain't kidding

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_13.thumb.png.ec16e0f82ef878fff7226235b9e93f58.png

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_13.thumb.png.27fec6ae938bd6a2506dd71cbc87280c.png

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