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11/20 Storm Disco & Obs


DomNH

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Modeling is in pretty remarkable agreement on the placement of mid level forcing for tomorrow. The NAM is maybe a hair N of the rest of the suite, but same general idea. Definitely favoring an interior S NH jackpot.

NAMNE_850_fronto_024_zpsgxo1scgf.png

I am interested in this little feature that's beginning to show up on model runs.

NAMNE_700_fronto_027_zpsmtcrto66.png

As the 850 mb wave tries to close off, the 700 mb f-gen really begins to increase during the afternoon. Coupling that with the lift generated below it at 850 mb, and maybe signs that we get a heavier band to form late in the day. 

FWIW, the extended HRRR is in favor of coastal western ME seeing the higher snowfall totals.

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Prob gonna be until later this evening/overnight for light rain to flip to snow for the N MA towns and maybe adjacent S NH. There's a subtle push south in the BL through about 06z. 

If places like ORH to BED get in on the action, that's likely to be tomorrow morning as the low is blowing up to the south. 

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22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Prob gonna be until later this evening/overnight for light rain to flip to snow for the N MA towns and maybe adjacent S NH. There's a subtle push south in the BL through about 06z. 

If places like ORH to BED get in on the action, that's likely to be tomorrow morning as the low is blowing up to the south. 

18z Euro clown

B827BCA5-266F-4C05-B83B-764112E35DA1.jpeg

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Looks pretty close to my hood. Yes please

Modeling is in pretty remarkable agreement on the placement of mid level forcing for tomorrow. The NAM is maybe a hair N of the rest of the suite, but same general idea. Definitely favoring an interior S NH jackpot.
NAMNE_850_fronto_024_zpsgxo1scgf.png&key=4aa21025976014642b9cac1747f8eab42c9604d64fffd125c60cf8b4c60d2bbe
I am interested in this little feature that's beginning to show up on model runs.
NAMNE_700_fronto_027_zpsmtcrto66.png&key=c5dd6ce090a7457787a52c822a3741b9a5e4162d3bcf75be7861dfdfb394a251
As the 850 mb wave tries to close off, the 700 mb f-gen really begins to increase during the afternoon. Coupling that with the lift generated below it at 850 mb, and maybe signs that we get a heavier band to form late in the day. 
FWIW, the extended HRRR is in favor of coastal western ME seeing the higher snowfall totals.


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7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Driving west on Rte 2 from Leominster to Gardner. Cats paws for much of it. Flip to mix of rain and snow at the Gardner/Westminster line.  Back to wet getting off the highway in Gardner.   34F

Weenie ridge will find a way to get croaked if they get heavy precip. Seems like that area can localize cooling once a little inflow gets going. 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I just hope the srn end near and south of rt 2 isn’t showery dry slot crap. That’s awfully close to the low center. Best forcing is north there, but at least they should get some. It’s close. 10 miles means a lot.

Sometimes you can get really heavy bands just north of the dryslot there. I guess we will see tomorrow morning. Precip overnight looks pretty meh just about everywhere. Maybe a bit of a band in S VT and S/C NH but not all that intense. 

Seems like most of the show is really going to be between about 10z and 18z or so. Maybe if a little mini-stinger can develop it will linger into 21z....but for SNE I think the window is mostly tomorrow morning through about lunchtime....if it's going to happen. 

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Sometimes you can get really heavy bands just north of the dryslot there. I guess we will see tomorrow morning. Precip overnight looks pretty meh just about everywhere. Maybe a bit of a band in S VT and S/C NH but not all that intense. 

Seems like most of the show is really going to be between about 10z and 18z or so. Maybe if a little mini-stinger can develop it will linger into 21z....but for SNE I think the window is mostly tomorrow morning through about lunchtime....if it's going to happen. 

Yeah I actually expect some heavy bands even there. But you know that kind of showery stuff......hopefully it’s pretty nice steady echoes. It very well could be if the upglide is nice. Not that I expect it to be right, but something like 3K nam is what I meant earlier. 

 

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