Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,618
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    RyRyB
    Newest Member
    RyRyB
    Joined

Upstate/Eastern New York

BuffaloWeather

Recommended Posts

BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
  • Author
Posted
11 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

SW flow lake events are more rare just because of the climate of the Great Lakes. Not the main wind flow. But when they do happen...BAM! In Michigan, I lived in an area that was amazing during SW flow events, but struggled with many other wind directions. Plus, snow can melt rapidly when a Sw flow of mild air from the gulf works up.

When you live in an area like Buffalo or Watertown, you definitely need to be patient in waiting for the big events. You guys still have all of December at least.

W/SW events are rare, but much more common across the Eastern than Western GL. W/SW winds probably happen off of Erie 30-40% of the time. You need SW to get up to northern erie, but sometimes we can get hit with a W flow in the southern suburbs. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
WNash

WNash

Posted
Posted
53 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

SW flow lake events are more rare just because of the climate of the Great Lakes. Not the main wind flow. But when they do happen...BAM! In Michigan, I lived in an area that was amazing during SW flow events, but struggled with many other wind directions. Plus, snow can melt rapidly when a Sw flow of mild air from the gulf works up.

When you live in an area like Buffalo or Watertown, you definitely need to be patient in waiting for the big events. You guys still have all of December at least.

Watertown has actually had multiple great LES events in recent years. Buffalo used to get a good event every few years, but it has been over a decade since a big event hit the city from downtown to the north. There have been several great chances for a big snow on the last five years, but every time there’s a great set-up, one variable - shear, moisture, flow, temp profile - changes during the nowcast.

It’s either a very bad run of luck or a climatological problem. Unfortunately, it keeps happening. Last year we got bailed out by several moderate synoptic events in the last third of the season, but we have had a run of anomalously low LES years recently.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

Some "Mexico bay" enhancement so to speak..On a NW-NNW trajectory ..

I have been noticing this show up for the last day or so , big fluff factor, gonna be interesting later this evening/overnight..Radar wont look great but could be snowing decent..(includes some falling precip, especially north)

wrf_tprecip_arw_syracuse_31.png

wrf_tprecip_nmm_syracuse_33.png

wrf_ref_nmm_syracuse_15.png

wrf_ref_arw_syracuse_14.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites
rochesterdave

rochesterdave

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Some "Mexico bay" enhancement so to speak..On a NW-NNW trajectory ..

I have been noticing this show up for the last day or so , big fluff factor, gonna be interesting later this evening/overnight..Radar wont look great but could be snowing decent..(includes some falling precip, especially north)

wrf_tprecip_arw_syracuse_31.png

wrf_tprecip_nmm_syracuse_33.png

wrf_ref_nmm_syracuse_15.png

wrf_ref_arw_syracuse_14.png

I like the Penfield/ Walworth area for a few inches of fluff tonight. Could get interesting if the dry doesn’t kill it. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, WNash said:

Watertown has actually had multiple great LES events in recent years. Buffalo used to get a good event every few years, but it has been over a decade since a big event hit the city from downtown to the north. There have been several great chances for a big snow on the last five years, but every time there’s a great set-up, one variable - shear, moisture, flow, temp profile - changes during the nowcast.

It’s either a very bad run of luck or a climatological problem. Unfortunately, it keeps happening. Last year we got bailed out by several moderate synoptic events in the last third of the season, but we have had a run of anomalously low LES years recently.

How much snow, excluding southern Erie, has the Buffalo area had so far?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
  • Author
Posted
38 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Wait the airport has had 6"??? I lI've about 2 maybe 3 miles north as the crow flies and I'd be shocked if we had 1/2 of that. Now if they're including melted frozen thats melting on the grass but not a snowboard them I can't day that's false.

 

https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=buf 

4.5" season total

1.5" today 

6" total. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
WNash

WNash

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Wait the airport has had 6"??? I lI've about 2 maybe 3 miles north as the crow flies and I'd be shocked if we had 1/2 of that. Now if they're including melted frozen thats melting on the grass but not a snowboard them I can't day that's false.

 

Yeah I live a couple miles due west of the north side of the airport and we have had less than three inches total.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

kbuf 

On Tuesday this upper level trough will become negatively tilted,
and a new surface low will emerge to the lee of the Appalachians.
This new surface low will bring impacts along the east coast, with
lingering surface troughing back across WNY continuing the threat
for showers...of which most will be snow as much colder air aloft
wraps across the Eastern Great Lakes. This colder air, with 850 hPa
temperatures dropping to -10 to -12C...will likely yield bands of
lake effect snow...which at this time may be downwind of the Great
Lakes on a westerly flow. However there is still some model
differences in the position of the upper level low and where it
forms a cut off...that will influence the surface wind direction.
Regardless there will be chances for lake effect snow through the
end of the period with temperatures again returning to below
normal, with highs Wednesday possibly remaining below freezing.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
CNY-LES FREAK

CNY-LES FREAK

Posted
Posted

I guess Binghamton put out a good forecast with the advisory today. They had two to five with locally higher amounts if the band set up anywhere for any length of time like for instance the way it is now in the northern Finger Lakes

Just a brutally cold Thanksgiving Day in store. Just amazes me how this shot of brutally Arctic air arrived perfectly on Thanksgiving Eve and will last through Thanksgiving and then leave the day after followed by a brief but significant warm up!

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites
lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I can’t believe this team. Shocked we’re playing so well without ROR. I’m ready for some playoff hockey.

Why? ROR was an overrated centerman with a bad attitude. Team is infused with young talent with Middlestadt and Dahlin as well as Eichel, Okposo, Rinehart, Pominville all stepping up in a big way then add in the offseason additions of Skinner, Sheary, Bergland, Sobotka, and a very competent goalie with Hutton and it's no surprise they're playing as well as they are. This is a good team with people who actually want to be here now. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...