BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2018 Author Share Posted December 14, 2018 1 minute ago, WesterlyWx said: As you were saying normal or slightly below normal temps gets us snow this time of year and I’d rather have a pattern like that than brutal arctic cold but the storm track is suppressed to the south over the M/A or SE. Honestly I hate the cold as I’m getting older so give me 30 and snow and I’ll be a happy camper. High 20s and heavy lake effect snow is the best pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 The Coastal storm on the euro isin't so rainy any more..To bad HP keeps it from making it up here lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 KBGM could retake the lead in the gold snowball award, at least for now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2018 Author Share Posted December 14, 2018 Looking a little further ahead, it does appear likely cold air will return by next weekend. Model guidance shows typical variance in the synoptic scale details, but in a broad sense a deep trough will begin to carve out over central and eastern North America, allowing colder air to move back into the Great Lakes and New England. GEFS and CMCE ensembles over the past few days show good support for troughing and cold air becoming established most of the time for the week between Christmas and New Years. Thus, it appears the warmup this weekend and again later next week will be transitory with more consistent winter weather on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 A strong cold front will blast through the area with gusty cold advection likely on Monday. Inversion height rise rather rapidly and lake-induced instability maximizes southeast of the lakes on Monday. This will be especially true over Lake Ontario. Shear in the unstable layer reduces and a period of maybe 9 or so hours of lake effect snow seems likely southeast of the lakes. At the moment, with the better instability and fetch off of Lake Ontario, accumulations were ramped up there, however model trends will need to be monitored as higher resolution guidance becomes available, as headlines in briefly moderate/heavy lake effect snow may be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Congrats SE NY.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2018 Author Share Posted December 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Rgem a little farther inland.. I guess it can snow in a bad pattern lol Looks elevation dependent, mainly Catskills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 GFS pre Xmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Euro also has a rain storm changing to snow on the 21st/ 22nd before bringing another clipper through on christmas eve with some lake effect snow showers.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Thats what u call a real white christmas lol Might as well start concentrating on the 21st-25th time period.. GFS Para has 3 Events during that time frame.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 Nice little bump NW on the NAM, maybe catch a few flakes.. Edit: Nice bump up from 12z , similar to 18z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 Wow, that is quite the difference. Amazing how the pattern has been all over the place...up to the same day of an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 Starting to think preicp may make it up here, but in what variety lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 Being on the northwest edge, winter precipitation is much more likely...especially with colder air sweeping in behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 Tonight I am reminded of why I looked forward to moving here. Temps dropped quickly here with temps in the upper 20s with snow pack freezing up, while in many areas in Upstate it is still in the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 Saw a large Meteor at 7:30. Had a tail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 51 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Saw a large Meteor at 7:30. Had a tail. The Geminid meteor shower has really lived up to its fireball reputation this year. Is it clear out there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 Not anymore. I only saw the one this year. It was definitely a fireball. I wasn’t even looking but it grabbed my attention. Streaked the entire sky. Love those. I also like the quick zippers. Sometimes I wonder if I’m the only human who saw it. It travelled millions of miles and burned up before my eyes only. Trippy. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 Awesome pattern Haha Things wanna cut this year, thats 4 sure.. We may be able to survive but not the coast lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 42° day but feels like 50s, beautiful early spring like day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 Been watching christmas day as well with another northern stream disturbance swinging through.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 Models showing quite the solstice soaker. Nothing says Christmas like plastic Santa’s getting washed down the road in a raging torrent. Looks ok for a little whitening in time for Christmas Eve though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 What did the Euro show for Tomorrow?Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2018 Author Share Posted December 15, 2018 22 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: What did the Euro show for Tomorrow? Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Cloudy with a chance of meatballs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 Too warm for anything other than rain but the surface can get cold enough for freezing rn if anyone likes that kind of precip, I don't! H850 it's marginal at H700 for freezing precip, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 Best chance for some accumulating snow should be on monday with the cold front.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 For a while before a massive rain event, for now at least, as I think it goes up the East side of the spine, as the West side is an extremely anomalous track, but I've seen it happen so we'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 Let’s see how this looks a week from now behind the cutter/Apps runner.. All global models show back end snow at this juncture.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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