CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 The other issue being that's it's mainly a mid-level disturbance without any real surface reflection, as was alluded to, in KBUF's afternoon disc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 6 hours ago, wolfie09 said: The best events are the ones that pop up out of nowhere.. Agree. As unremarkable as the SR and LR looks, we've seen this before...something usually develops. We may not like the outcome always but it's not like we live in the high desert of Nevada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I'm really surprised this isn't creating a bit more precip throughout the area as its a nice little disturbance aloft, but with absolutely no moisture to work with, there's really nothing to tap from! Left my home at 1650 feet, light to moderate snow falling, ground coated. In the valley below, 1200 feet, very light snow, hardly anything on the ground. The dry air is eating it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 elevation event? Don’t trust this pattern... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Things are still evolving, more change to come.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2018 Author Share Posted December 13, 2018 46 and sunny here today, beautiful day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 UKMET a bit disorganized, looks like your typical lake enhancement so to speak.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Can’t say the same east of Ontario, granted it still feels pretty nice out there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Crazy how things change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Me likey, too bad it’s 372 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2018 Author Share Posted December 14, 2018 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: Crazy how things change. The 23rd is when we all said the pattern would start to flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Potential active pattern coming up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Well I've been trying to upload hour 228 on this mornings GFS run as it shows what would be a Christmas Eve miracle...you know if it wasn't 228 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 He goes on to say in his Twitter response that this should become winters main event but doesn't happen til early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2018 Author Share Posted December 14, 2018 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: He goes on to say in his Twitter response that this should become winters main event but doesn't happen til early January. I saw the ice boom went into place yesterday. I think that thing quickens the rate at which Erie freezes by about 50%. The ice would otherwise just flow down Niagara River until it got really cold. Are there any stats in place before the ice boom was put into the lake and the average freeze date? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I saw the ice boom went into place yesterday. I think that thing quickens the rate at which Erie freezes by about 50%. The ice would otherwise just flow down Niagara River until it got really cold. Are there any stats in place before the ice boom was put into the lake and the average freeze date? I can't be sure, but my intuition is that is has very little effect on the overall freeze up of the lake. Ice flows would just start jamming up around the peace bridge pretty quickly on their own. The boom just allows them to control where the jamming occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2018 Author Share Posted December 14, 2018 13 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I can't be sure, but my intuition is that is has very little effect on the overall freeze up of the lake. Ice flows would just start jamming up around the peace bridge pretty quickly on their own. The boom just allows them to control where the jamming occurs. It definitely has some effect on the buildup of ice. The smaller flows would float down the river until it got pretty cold, high wind events which happen quite a bit in winter would surge the ice down the river. I know it keeps the areas surrounding the boom much colder in spring which is why I didn't want to purchase a house along the lake. From March-May anywhere within 1-2 miles of the lake is so much colder then the surrounding region as the last place to melt is the northeastern tip of Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: It definitely has some effect on the buildup of ice. The smaller flows would float down the river until it got pretty cold, high wind events which happen quite a bit in winter would surge the ice down the river. I know it keeps the areas surrounding the boom much colder in spring which is why I didn't want to purchase a house along the lake. From March-May anywhere within 1-2 miles of the lake is so much colder then the surrounding region as the last place to melt is the northeastern tip of Erie. Ice is an insulator, if ice continued to flow down the river, the lake could actually cool more quickly in your scenario as liquid water would continually be exposed to cold air. That said, the impact is negligible relative to the scale of that lake. Also, there have been studies on the ice boom and spring temps and absolutely no correlation was found. The ice boom protects homeowners along the river and prevent issues with hydro electric power, but that boom is so tiny relative to the size and volume of lake Erie that no tangible weather effects have ever been observed. It's all Buffalo Folklore. I should add, that maybe a mile or two directly around the boom might have a slightly colder day or so during a tiny time period right around the removal time if there was still pack ice, but overall this is virtually in the noise http://niagara.nypa.gov/ALP working documents/finalreports/html/IS39.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Very interesting conversation! Much better than tthe incessant bickering on other forums! Thankful for you all...seriously! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2018 Author Share Posted December 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Ice is an insulator, if ice continued to flow down the river, the lake could actually cool more quickly in your scenario as liquid water would continually be exposed to cold air. That said, the impact is negligible relative to the scale of that lake. Also, there have been studies on the ice boom and spring temps and absolutely no correlation was found. The ice boom protects homeowners along the river and prevent issues with hydro electric power, but that boom is so tiny relative to the size and volume of lake Erie that no tangible weather effects have ever been observed. It's all Buffalo Folklore. I should add, that maybe a mile or two directly around the boom might have a slightly colder day or so during a tiny time period right around the removal time if there was still pack ice, but overall this is virtually in the noise http://niagara.nypa.gov/ALP working documents/finalreports/html/IS39.htm This is good stuff, I haven't really researched it too much but this makes sense. Going to read this tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2018 Author Share Posted December 14, 2018 Slow transition starting around the 23rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2018 Author Share Posted December 14, 2018 Mainly EPO driven, I'd worry about that PNA weakening. No big time cold, but should be around normal/slightly below. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2018 Author Share Posted December 14, 2018 Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Saturday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43 Sunday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Monday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near 27. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 37. Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2018 Author Share Posted December 14, 2018 Average high/low at Buffalo is 35-36/23-24 right now. So averaging above normal, especially for the lows for the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2018 Author Share Posted December 14, 2018 Normal temps this time of year lead to snow as the precip type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2018 Author Share Posted December 14, 2018 The long range is starting to look much better and even then Mon night/tues the tug could get a few inches. Dec 21-23rd is when pattern change starts. But I don't see any true arctic air coming into the picture this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 20 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The long range is starting to look much better and even then Mon night/tues the tug could get a few inches. Dec 21-23rd is when pattern change starts. But I don't see any true arctic air coming into the picture this year. As you were saying normal or slightly below normal temps gets us snow this time of year and I’d rather have a pattern like that than brutal arctic cold but the storm track is suppressed to the south over the M/A or SE. Honestly I hate the cold as I’m getting older so give me 30 and snow and I’ll be a happy camper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 The coastal system around Christmas has now become a northern stream clipper type as the southern stream energy gets left behind in the southwest, at least on the operational GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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