wolfie09 Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 ...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT EASTERN JEFFERSON...LEWIS AND NORTHEASTERN OSWEGO COUNTIES... At 801 PM EST, A band of lake effect snow producing snow fall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will continue across southern and eastern Jefferson County, northern and western Lewis County, and northern Oswego County. The heavier snow will only last for less than an hour in any one location, but will result in deteriorating travel conditions. This includes Interstate 81 between exits 36 and 47. Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra time when traveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Nearing 2" on the day as it is absolutely pouring snow out right now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 SN- around SYR. Fluffy dendrites. Maybe a 1/2" of low density fluff so far. We may get to 130" avg at 1" per day at this rate.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 About 2.5 inches here. More than expected, and a nice freshen up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Looks like a consensus is starting to form for this weekend, with the majority of models keeping precip south of NY state.. GFS Para throwing us a nice christmas party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Very dry the next 10 days, should change Xmas week, at least thats what its looking like anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Boy, the forecasted pattern for the long range is all over the place. Backdoor cold fronts, clippers, southeast lows, possible cutter or two... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2018 Author Share Posted December 12, 2018 13 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Boy, the forecasted pattern for the long range is all over the place. Backdoor cold fronts, clippers, southeast lows, possible cutter or two... Yeah every model shows something different. Starting tomorrow for the next week it will be around 40 and partly cloudy every day. Pretty boring weather for what is typically peak lake effect season off of Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Although this weather has been/will be boring, this is very good for us in the Susquehanna/Delaware River watersheds (and I think most of upstate NY). We needed a prolonged cold/dry spell to let water run off. 1.5 weeks ago I was afraid we were one good rain event away from major flooding. As much as I love snow, I’m considering us lucky to be getting this dry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Christmas continues to be the time frame to watch. This upcoming period might not be quite as warm as originally thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2018 Author Share Posted December 12, 2018 17 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Christmas continues to be the time frame to watch. This upcoming period might not be quite as warm as originally thought. Not in the near term, but I think the 18th-22nd look quite warm on the EPS. Either way, If it's not going to snow, give me warm and sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 So the ECM is still Blahh It now has the clipper around the 17/18th that other model have been showing.. Tomorrow's very light snow event moved north about 50 miles, within 24 hours of the event.. Hard to really trust any model verbatim.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Seems like the trend as of late, clipper/fropas brings in some nusiance snow , flow turns NW on the backside.. Good thing we've had two synoptic/hybrid events or we'd be in trouble lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Transition period is all, no biggie! No real warmth in site or real cold for that matter so a boring period right before the real activity begins! We need Synoptic events, simple as that, and I know you guys downwind of Erie and Ontario are waiting on that elusive blockbuster. Unless we get some kind of serious pattern change, we'll be hard pressed to get any moisture in here. We need moisture and a good pattern and we're not in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Gfs onto something or on something lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Upstate New York, according to models, looks to be one of the very few places across the country to have a chance, albeit not much, accumulating snow over the next week. I have had constant snow cover for over a month...so while it has been somewhat boring, we are faring much better than most. Just check the other subs out. Lots ready to "cancel winter." This is especially true for the SNE and Mid-Atlantic crews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2018 Author Share Posted December 13, 2018 14 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Upstate New York, according to models, looks to be one of the very few places across the country to have a chance, albeit not much, accumulating snow over the next week. I have had constant snow cover for over a month...so while it has been somewhat boring, we are faring much better than most. Just check the other subs out. Lots ready to "cancel winter." This is especially true for the SNE and Mid-Atlantic crews. Yeah, it's been full on winter here for almost the last month. 4-5" of wet snow on the ground and cold temps last few days. I'm all about snow falling (especially high rate LES), don't really care about the snowcover as much. Going to be at least another 2 weeks before our next LES event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah, it's been full on winter here for almost the last month. 4-5" of wet snow on the ground and cold temps last few days. I'm all about snow falling (especially high rate LES), don't really care about the snowcover as much. Going to be at least another 2 weeks before our next LES event. Oh, I love it all. Biggest disappointment for me has obviously been the lack of any good west wind lake snows. Glad we got those two synoptic events in November...otherwise we would be singing a similar tune on here as the other subs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Starting to look a bit more interesting.. We could see a late capture and a pull back west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Gfs is a little warmer for the lake region verbatim as it takes a little longer to cool, but similar concept.. Once winds turn NW temps drop like a rock.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 NoGO on the GFS Para and CMC..All comes down to timing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 The best events are the ones that pop up out of nowhere.. UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2018 Author Share Posted December 13, 2018 We're in a bad pattern, but still finds a way to snow almost everyday. Pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Ukmet precipitation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Thats a lot of rain along the Jersey coast, and it doesn't look all that bad for our area, nice, but is it even close to being right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Euro has something but its confused as it doesnt want to commit to any one solution. Man the models are surely confused about this pattern that's for certain. With all the variables in play this yr, it may be a rough yr for all the models, excluding the SR meso's of course. Its just tough to believe anything the models say right now and that sucks, lol, even within 3 days it seems like.The light snow we receive early Morning through tomorrow morning was first forecasted to traverse PA and head off the Jersey coast and now its heading straight east into New England?? Models had this happening during yesterdays runs, so models have no clue right now so I would take it all with a grain of salt, at least I am.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Heavy little burst here. Nice little shot. It will only add up to an inch or two but keeping things fresh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 RLMAO, I guess it'll do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 I'm really surprised this isn't creating a bit more precip throughout the area as its a nice little disturbance aloft, but with absolutely no moisture to work with, there's really nothing to tap from! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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