wolfie09 Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 GFS Dosen't look to bad.. The last 7-10 days of the month look to be cold/snowy, from this vantage pount.. Active pattern with several chances at some snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2018 Author Share Posted December 10, 2018 Not a good look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Good thing that’s a probability map and not anomaly lol Euro even brings some accumulating snow to northern Nj with the next system.. It can snow in a bad pattern just probably not sustainable.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 New wrinkle on the GFS.. Following up the intial system with a northern stream disturbance .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 More dinking and dunking.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: More dinking and dunking.. Would actually be about 3” here 10:1. Would be quite a nice little surprise if it comes true but doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2018 Author Share Posted December 11, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 When you look at that table, much of Upstate NY, including Buffalo, is doing better than most of New England. When I checked out the New England sub, they were getting pretty snippy with each other...that could either be due to lack of snow...or the fact that they are often that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: When you look at that table, much of Upstate NY, including Buffalo, is doing better than most of New England. When I checked out the New England sub, they were getting pretty snippy with each other...that could either be due to lack of snow...or the fact that they are often that way. I'd say both! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 Starting to see a trend towards the euro and mostly a non event for this weekend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 Clipper Mania Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 I appreciate BUF's honesty in their AFD. "Confidence is low and the models are confusing." was the jist of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 Christmas day miracle? Actually its the day after but timing is never good this far out.. GFS usually Does a good job at showing time periods of interest.. Few of the latest GFS OP runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 That first chart looks like a potential cutter. Positioning of the HP on the 6z run is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 18 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Christmas day miracle? Actually its the day after but timing is never good this far out.. GFS usually Does a good job at showing time periods of interest.. Few of the latest GFS OP runs.. Some work to do on those model runs...to avoid a Christmas Day gully washer. Fortunately, there's time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 I’m dreaming of a White Christmas? Still 2 weeks to go, we’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 The 12Z Gfs looked exciting in the long range, with many snow chances. Steady light snow picking up here on the Tug right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 icon with an interesting piece Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2018 Author Share Posted December 11, 2018 15 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: When you look at that table, much of Upstate NY, including Buffalo, is doing better than most of New England. When I checked out the New England sub, they were getting pretty snippy with each other...that could either be due to lack of snow...or the fact that they are often that way. I like snow and all but they take it to a new level over there in that forum. I can't imagine ever feeling like they do about snow. They all need to move to Northern Canada. We've had snow cover since Mid November with a few days of green. I just want a big LES event, last year around this time we had back to back big time events. The upcoming pattern is not good at all for snow. Pattern change has been consistent around Christmas week. I go there in a bad NE pattern for some laughter on the regular. Don't say anything though or they make fun of us because all we get is "fake snow". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I like snow and all but they take it to a new level over there in that forum. I can't imagine ever feeling like they do about snow. They all need to move to Northern Canada. We've had snow cover since Mid November with a few days of green. I just want a big LES event, last year around this time we had back to back big time events. The upcoming pattern is not good at all for snow. Pattern change has been consistent around Christmas week. I go there in a bad NE pattern for some laughter on the regular. Don't say anything though or they make fun of us because all we get is "fake snow". Haha...So true! I remember Will from Fort Kent coming to the Great Lakes sub and mocking all of us for the fake snow we get...yet he moved to Calumet, one of the lake snow champs in the country. I really enjoy this sub and Central PA sub. I grew up there, and those folks are welcoming and laid back. They despise the Mid-Atlantic crew. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 Thats actually not the worst little band right now. I bet there is some downright moderate snow in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 P.S. Large fluffy flakes coming down here at a moderate rate. Quickly accumulating... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2018 Author Share Posted December 11, 2018 13 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Haha...So true! I remember Will from Fort Kent coming to the Great Lakes sub and mocking all of us for the fake snow we get...yet he moved to Calumet, one of the lake snow champs in the country. I really enjoy this sub and Central PA sub. I grew up there, and those folks are welcoming and laid back. They despise the Mid-Atlantic crew. Lol I'm a big fan of the Mid-Atlantic Mid/Long range discussion, also the Tennessee has some good long range forecasters surprisingly. Isotherm, OhioWeather, OSU, and LakeEffectKing are my favorite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I'm a big fan of the Mid-Atlantic Mid/Long range discussion, also the Tennessee has some good long range forecasters surprisingly. Isotherm, OhioWeather, OSU, and LakeEffectKing are my favorite. I agree! Gotta add Raleighwx to the list. Although I think I heard he left for several reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 "Snowing" decently under this band ATM. Only thing is it's about 98% graupel and 2% real flakes...27 degrees here though so it is sticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2018 Author Share Posted December 11, 2018 It will be an understatement to say that forecast confidence will be low during this period...as there is a very large variance in the solutions offered by the ECMWF and many of the GEFS ensembles. This presents a HUGE forecast problem for our region...as the two main lines of `thinking` include a prolonged period of `rainy` weather versus a rather short duration of nuisance pcpn. Have continued to shave back on pops from continuity...which is the solution that is more in line with the more trusted ECMWF. It would otherwise be futile to get into details of an otherwise complicated and wide ranging forecast...so will only add that there is the likelihood that our temperatures will average above normal. Stay tuned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 Just some light rain on the gfs, similar to that of the euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 GFS Develops another storm on monday.. Looks like the gfs leaves behind some energy which phases with some northern stream energy, atleast thats what it looks like on the surface lol Or Myabe more of a "classic" miller B with secondary development off the coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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