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Upstate/Eastern New York

BuffaloWeather

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted
Just now, wolfie09 said:

Not if the NAM models are correct lol

If the band is this thin we'd be lucky to see a few inches..

The predominant flow is out of the SW, our best shot was a slow moving band as the flow veers SW-NW behind the front..

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh20-28.gif

Either the NAM is gonna score a coup or it’s gonna get embarrassed badly. Not sure which one it’s gonna be. It has the band RACING through from Niagara Falls to Olean in 4 hours. That would be like a 15 minute residence time for any one given location. Lol.

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ayuud11

ayuud11

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said:

Either the NAM is gonna score a coup or it’s gonna get embarrassed badly. Not sure which one it’s gonna be. It has the band RACING through from Niagara Falls to Olean in 4 hours. That would be like a 15 minute residence time for any one given location. Lol.

Yea I'm not liking the look of this bro, the band is literally sweeping thru the metro area both times lol.. actually wouldn't be surprised if it actually stalls near the 290 corridor for awhile tomorrow!

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TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Boy it sucks how often the NWS lacks radar representation off Ontario..

More then half the LES Archive page has no montague radar..

This may be the most impressive event off Ontario that I have seen so far..

Near 90” in parish in 3.5 days..

D94C45FC-79EE-4EB0-8858-60BF075AF8B0.png

Looks like a WNW wind. Talk about a tight gradient! 1 foot in Pulaski, while 10 miles south it is over 7 feet!

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TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

Posted
Posted

Hoping you Buffalo guys get some of the fluff. Looks like some nice snow showers about to move in to the metro area.

 

Just checked out Watertown cam. One of my favorite webcams.. Snowing very nicely there. I wouldn't be surprised if they make it to a foot.

https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/usa/new-york/watertown-thompson-park.html

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Looks like a WNW wind. Talk about a tight gradient! 1 foot in Pulaski, while 10 miles south it is over 7 feet!

What an event!!  I got 30" during that one and this is the one King and I chased with 8"/hr rates.  Thats where he used to live before he moved closer to the city.  thats the biggest event I've seen since I've moved here.  

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted

Whats even funnier is the fact that I'm under light green returns and nothing is falling so that tells me that its super dry just off the deck and needs to saturate a bit before it starts to fall.  There's really not much moisture to play with but there's a batch of deep synoptic moisture moving our way, so that will definitely help the situation.

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted

That band is definitely sheared apart pretty bad. Great call by the NWS on forecasting that. The band looks like it’s dead stationary about 3-5 miles to my south or if anything the motion on it looks like it may actually being starting to sink south a bit which is very surprising. What if this is as far north as it gets and it never even makes it to the city? Haha.

got about 1/2” outside at my house in WS. Looking at webcams Hamburg is getting hit pretty good and must have several inches already. 

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted

All 06z model runs look like the city may only see 1-2” at best and even the Southtowns like Hamburg and OP may only see about 6” with how sheared apart that band is. Models cut way down on QPF and residence time looks to be very limited.In a few hours models have the band shooting north to about Amherst/Tonawanda and then very quickly scooting back through and dropping through the city and then into ski country within a few hours. On to the next one!

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CNY-LES FREAK

CNY-LES FREAK

Posted
Posted

Eries band should move North of the city this morning sometime, at least that's what's forecasted, but who really knows right, then it should start to sag back South during the afternoon so Kbuf should get affected twice today. Once from the band moving North, then as it moves South this afternoon so we'll see how this plays out. Most meso's are off their mark right now as far as placement especially the HRRR.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted

The band on Erie has the potential to get quite strong if it would just stop moving around so much, lol.  If it becomes stationary for over an hr or 2 then things can get interesting but as long as she's oscillating, either North or South, Not much should accumulate in any on area except of course for the upslope areas of the ridge, where it just snows with just about any angle of wind, lol!  Looking at the radar out of KBUF, one would think its snowing quite heavily in and around the city , both the North and South towns, no>

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

I like to see KFzy get 8”-12”..

They obviously see something I do not ..

77547EBF-CB9D-41D2-A648-320CCC550A2D.png

No way, something went wrong I think cause we're not getting anywhere near 8-12", no way no how unless like you said, their seeing quite a bit more than even KBGM kis seeing.  If that is the case, why weren't the adv's upgraded, unless they were cause I didn't check.

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted 
Snowfall rates will average one inch per hour in the organized lake
bands early this morning...but could generate up to two inches of
snow per hour when the deepest convection could occur during the
midday and afternoon. The convective depth should easily exceed 10k
ft...and with the -10c isotherm around 5k ft...favorable
conditions will be in place for electrification of the more
organized bands. Have thus added some thunder and lightning to
the forecast. If you are looking for thundersnow...the most
likely area for electrification will be on the Tug Hill late
today and this evening. Snowfall amounts today will range from
4-7 inches across parts of Jefferson County to 3 to 5 inches
over much of the IAG Frontier...particularly the northern half
of Erie County.
While the areas of greatest concern will be in the above outlined
areas of lake effect...the first of two cold fronts will push across
the region late this afternoon/early this evening. This should bring
an inch or so accumulation of snow to areas outside of the lake
effect...so slick roadways can eventually be expected regionwide.

Winds will veer to 260-280 just ahead of and in the vcnty of the
first cold front later today...so as mentioned the organized lake
snows will push south of the BUF and metro areas as we advance
through the evening commute. There is still not high confidence that
winds will veer fast enough to prevent problems in these metro areas
between 4 and 6 PM...especially in the ART area.

As we push through tonight...a second...reinforcing cold front will
make its way through our region. The steering flow will further veer
to around 300 during the wee hours of the morning...while a notably
drier synoptic environment will accompany a cap that will drop well
below 10k ft. This will weaken the lake snows that will be southeast
of both lakes in the more typical lake snow belt areas.
On Friday a cold northwesterly flow will remain entrenched across
our region...in between departing low pressure over the Canadian
Maritimes and high pressure building into the Ohio Valley and
southern Great Lakes. While this will maintain some lake effect snow
showers southeast of the lakes...these should mainly be on the
lighter side given the short fetch and capping inversion around
4-6 kft...which should help hold accumulations to the 1-2 inch range
for the most part. Otherwise it will just be mainly dry and cold...
with highs ranging from the lower 20s across the North Country to
the mid 20s elsewhere.
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