TugHillMatt Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 You guys in Buffalo might get more thunder than you did all summer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: You guys in Buffalo might get more thunder than you did all summer... Actually, this one played out pretty much just like the summer. The line weakened dramatically as it came off the lake, and instead of serious convection and lightning, all we got was a brief shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 35 minutes ago, WNash said: Actually, this one played out pretty much just like the summer. The line weakened dramatically as it came off the lake, and instead of serious convection and lightning, all we got was a brief shower. Lol... Bummer! Just has not been your year for weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Ending the 24th, Not to bad a look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 I guess we'll see a green Christmas after a White Turkey day which has become quite common around these parts as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Everyone excited for El Niño, I don’t know why, they can be devastatingly bad for NE snow lovers. Hopefully we get that promised pattern shift come late December. You might be looking at that gorgeous avatar for quite some time. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 And by everyone, I mean the folks on twitter and other boards- present company excluded, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Yuck...that screams Pacific Jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Everyone excited for El Niño, I don’t know why, they can be devastatingly bad for NE snow lovers. Hopefully we get that promised pattern shift come late December. You might be looking at that gorgeous avatar for quite some time. LolIt already snowed? Do I have to go find the post, lol? Your definitely not a man of your word, no integrity bro, but that's ok.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 RlmaoSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Wicked Thunder just passing through accompanying this shower! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Sitting here with the wife and we both jumped at a huge boom of thunder. 39 degrees, 6 inch snow pack, and a thunderstorm...sorry, Buffalo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Very small cells out ahead of the front! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 0z Gfs has a stronger "transient" band then 18z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Gfs says we do this again next weekend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: 0z Gfs has a stronger "transient" band then 18z... Thats not a bad event for you guys up North! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Could get interesting for our new friend Shea.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 To much SW for my liking , Gfs is best case scenario at the moment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Not bad for 5 day totals, but that's it for the next 15 days or so. That's what the EURO thinks anyway. I wouldn't put much stock into any one model right now cause the differences between 12Z and 00Z are not consistent to say the least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 I'll gladly take 3-6" of new snow after the washout but its just gonna happen again in 10 days anyway. I seriously wouldn't of minded if the first 15-20 days of Dec were mild then the onslaught, but I guess we have to go through this once again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Could be decent for the metro as well.. Obviously Know more once hi rez guidance starts to get into range.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Did you read all that munbo jumbo about sharing maps from the site? Great site right? I just cancelled WXB as well and will get this one soon enough, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 I think the Euro is a bit to far North but we'll see I guess! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Yep lol Your not suppose to distribute the euro from any site including WB and Vista but people do anyway lol Its better then social media where many more people will see it I will add that I have been trying to keep my Euro posting to a minimum, using the free site weather.us to post snowfall accumulations.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Kbuf Wednesday and Wednesday night westerly flow will become better aligned across both lakes. Background synoptic scale moisture will improve, and lake induced equilibrium levels will rise to 7-8k feet. While not ideal, the lake effect parameters will be sufficient to support at least some accumulations east of the lakes. Off Lake Erie, there may be a few inches of accumulation across the higher terrain east of the lake on Wednesday. Wednesday night the band of snow will move a little farther north towards the Buffalo Southtowns, but appears likely to weaken with mid level drying and some increase in shear. Accumulations Wednesday night look to be very light. Off Lake Ontario, lake effect snow will increase late Wednesday and especially Wednesday night. West or WSW flow will target the northern portion of the Tug Hill Plateau, and extending east across northern Lewis County with light to moderate accumulations possible. Thursday and Thursday evening will be the most active time period as a potent clipper crosses the eastern Great Lakes. Deeper moisture and ascent associated with the clipper will likely produce a few snow showers and minor accumulations areawide late Thursday and Thursday evening. More importantly, the large scale ascent, deep moisture, and pool of cold air aloft associated with the clipper will bring a period of very favorable lake parameters. Lake induced equilibrium levels will rocket to almost 20K feet briefly around the time of the clipper passage, with model point soundings showing steep lapse rates extending all the way up to the tropopause. Thunder and lightning are a distinct possibility late Thursday along intensifying lake effect bands, especially over and east of Lake Ontario. Off Lake Erie, expect weak lake effect snow showers across the Niagara Frontier in southwest flow through early afternoon. These will then strengthen as low level convergence increases ahead of the clipper cold front, with this strengthening band moving quickly onshore and into the western Southern Tier by evening. This may drop at least a few inches of accumulation from the Niagara Frontier southward into the western Southern Tier with a rapidly moving band, and advisory amounts are not out of the question in some areas. Off Lake Ontario, the setup looks even more favorable. Lake effect snow will move from the northern Tug Hill into central or northern Jefferson County on Thursday. The lake band will then start to merge with the clipper cold front and rapidly intensify by late afternoon, moving south across the Tug Hill region during the evening and eventually breaking apart into multiple bands southeast of the lake overnight. Convergence and instability look stronger over Lake Ontario than Lake Erie, so this band may have intense snowfall rates as it moves southeast across the area. The lake effect snow Wednesday night and early Thursday may also be healthier than Lake Erie. Considering the event as a whole from Wednesday night through Thursday night, potential is there for at least moderate accumulations and possibly watch/warning criteria amounts in some areas. At this early juncture the greatest accumulations look to be across the northern Tug Hill region where the band will have greatest residence time. Later Thursday night boundary layer flow becomes northwest in the wake of the clipper. Mid level drying and increasing subsidence will bring lake induced equilibrium levels back down to around 8K feet. Expect weaker multiple bands of lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes overnight. An upstream connection to Georgian Bay may develop into Lake Ontario overnight, and this has some potential to cross the Rochester area from NE to SW late Thursday night as boundary layer flow veers. If that were to occur, a few inches of accumulation is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shea Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 6 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Could get interesting for our new friend Shea.. Yay! I was hoping it would but I didn’t really know what I was looking at. I was reading the kbuf discussion this morning and it is making me excited. I might get to use the new snow blower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 49 minutes ago, Shea said: Yay! I was hoping it would but I didn’t really know what I was looking at. I was reading the kbuf discussion this morning and it is making me excited. I might get to use the new snow blower. Love having someone representing Jefferson County. You haven't used your snowblower yet? I didn't realize you guys hadn't gotten much snow yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shea Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Love having someone representing Jefferson County. You haven't used your snowblower yet? I didn't realize you guys hadn't gotten much snow yet. One system gave us 8 inches of snow but we didn’t have the blower yet. That was actually the storm that convinced us to buy one. Since then nothing of note, at least on Drum. I think Watertown has been luckier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Checking out webcams this morning and noticed a few things. The ridge sure does lose snow faster than the Tug! They had several feet fall, and Perrysburg is already down to a couple inches of slush and some grass. The northern Tug seems to lose snow faster than down here in Central/Southern Tug. I know Buffalowx mentioned this when I was looking for a location. My guess is the warm SEly winds downslope from the higher elevation. Still solid several inch snowpack here...other than where rainwater was draining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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