wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Enjoy your flurries Dave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Only to hour 60 dude. Euro and cmc have 6 to 10 south shore at hour 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Not on euro or cmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Dude i'm just fooking around with Dave since he wants to "poo poo" this event every single day.. So he tries to take the fun out for everybody.. i agree this will go NW and give everyone a nice dose of snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 I will also add that the CMC has the highest resolution of any global model at 25km, not the best model to use in this situation, when it comes to enhancement/les.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 25, 2018 Author Share Posted November 25, 2018 My 10,000th post! It's been fun tracking with ya'll the last decade or so. I truly enjoy all aspects of winter almost equally. You'll see me in the plains forums for severe, southeast forums for the hurricanes, and the GL for snowstorms/LES. I hop around which has led to this post count. I've learned so much about meteorology and climatology from these forums, and thank all those knowledgeable posters on here. (Really wish LEK would post more, he's one of the best on here!) Still have some high hopes for this winter, hopefully we can keep it civil in here. It is just snow after all, there are more important things in life! Still looks good for Tug and Western Southern Tier (especially higher elevations) Thinking lake effect snow warnings for both locations. The last few days model runs have changed quite a bit. I think everyone gets a decent amount between Tues/Weds. 2-4" for everyone. There is a ton of moisture being thrown back as the primary is the main low now. The last week of model runs with that crazy retrograding low never came to fruition. First call 1-2' for the tug and around a foot for southern tier. The next few weeks look like a pattern shake up. PNA negative, EPO negative, NAO positive, WPO neutral, AO neutral. I like the look if we can get a little more pacific help. We should experience lots of ups and downs. A few days below average, a few above, rinse and repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 25, 2018 Author Share Posted November 25, 2018 Hopefully its like this when I go out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Hey BuffaloWeather, are you near the water tower in Hamburg that is going to be painted to look like a hamburger? https://www.wivb.com/news/local-news/hamburg-water-tower-to-get-mouth-watering-redesign/1616608537 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 That's kinda silly lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 25, 2018 Author Share Posted November 25, 2018 13 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Hey BuffaloWeather, are you near the water tower in Hamburg that is going to be painted to look like a hamburger? https://www.wivb.com/news/local-news/hamburg-water-tower-to-get-mouth-watering-redesign/1616608537 Yes, that’s my town. I’m voting against it haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 So you get to vote on it? From what I’ve read it sounded like a done deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Euro looks to get Niagara to Oswego good this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Maybe the euro scores a coup.. Its the only model with NW all day Tuesday.. West off Erie, NW off Ontario, verbatim.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 So 850 mb temps that were -8 to -10c are now-5c to -7c , thanks to the wind out of the north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 I don’t want take the fun out of it for everyone. Carol should be ok. She should have a little fun. And that one hermit at the top of the hill in Springville. Him too, he might need the snow brush. lol!! Its gonna be fun to track. Weirdo scenario. Maybe a good one to take a drive and take some pics! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Wsw issued, 8”-16” on the tug.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Wsw issued, 8”-16” on the tug.. 6-8” at KBUF? What are they smoking with this map? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shea Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Hello, I thought I should sorta say hi before I started to post randomly. I just moved up to Fort Drum from the far southern Kentucky area so while I know a far amount about severe thunderstorm forecasting and lingo I feel a tad bit lost when reading about snow. But basically I’m just happy to see any appreciable winter weather. After 7 years I’m already in heaven. I’m looking forward to learning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Map needs more south of lake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 South Shore will be lucky to see flakes from this one, besides a squall or 2 from the cf passage, but that's about it! Don't ever know what KBUF is looking at exactly, but whatever. KBUF may see a flake or 2, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Its already too warm, please stop, seriously! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 41 minutes ago, Shea said: Hello, I thought I should sorta say hi before I started to post randomly. I just moved up to Fort Drum from the far southern Kentucky area so while I know a far amount about severe thunderstorm forecasting and lingo I feel a tad bit lost when reading about snow. But basically I’m just happy to see any appreciable winter weather. After 7 years I’m already in heaven. I’m looking forward to learning. Welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 47 minutes ago, Shea said: Hello, I thought I should sorta say hi before I started to post randomly. I just moved up to Fort Drum from the far southern Kentucky area so while I know a far amount about severe thunderstorm forecasting and lingo I feel a tad bit lost when reading about snow. But basically I’m just happy to see any appreciable winter weather. After 7 years I’m already in heaven. I’m looking forward to learning. Are you active duty? Sounds like you were at Ft Campbell and got PCS orders to Drum. Anyhow, welcome - I’m in NE Buffalo and if this winter is like recent history you’ll hear a lot of me bitching about IMBY <1” forecasts a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 29 minutes ago, tim123 said: Map needs more south of lake That maps way to generous already. Roc is gonna be greener than it is right now come Thursday. BUF went real crazy with the markers. Hope im wrong Tim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 in a nutshell KBUF On Tuesday night into Wednesday, model guidance suggests a trough will pivot around the upper low from north to south. This will enhance moisture, and even though 850mb temperatures will warm slightly it still will be just cold enough to support snow. This event will have both a synoptic and lake effect component with some lake and orographic enhancement. Deeper moisture will support higher snowfall rates, but there may not be singular convergence band. Orographic lift will play a key role, with significantly more snow expected across higher terrain even though there should be some snow accumulation in all areas. There are still model differences in timing and wind direction which will have a significant impact on snowfall amounts. However, significant amounts are possible east of the lakes with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shea Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 I’m not, but my husband is and that’s exactly what happened. We spent a few years at Fort Hood prior to Campbell so it’s been a LONG time without winter. We are from Colorado though so we aren’t a stranger to it. I didn’t really start being interested in weather until the December 2015 tornado outbreak in the south. I’m glad I get to expand my horizons beyond severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Yup, without a single strong band we may have trouble accumulating.. Many may go just above freezing with "lighter" precip rates.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, Shea said: I’m not, but my husband is and that’s exactly what happened. We spent a few years at Fort Hood prior to Campbell so it’s been a LONG time without winter. We are from Colorado though so we aren’t a stranger to it. I didn’t really start being interested in weather until the December 2015 tornado outbreak in the south. I’m glad I get to expand my horizons beyond severe weather. You should learn a lot about the fickleness of lake effect snow this winter where the difference of a few degrees in wind direction will leave some smiling and some crying, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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