rochesterdave Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 It’s the first real sign of something more intriguing than an utter washout. GFS Para splits the energy in two and leaves a Low back that ultimately climbs up the eastern apps and taps cooler air, resulting in some snow. It will have to improve but at least I’ve stepped away from the very edge of the bridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Many of the models have been starting to show that set up. To me, it has looked like they're trying to show two separate lows, and are having trouble determining which one will be stronger. Upstate is looking to be in between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Been getting some Upslope snows here for the past hour and a half...having some trouble accumulating...dusting right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 It'd be nice if it was cold enough for snow,,lol, unreal, as we had better wintry conditions through the month of November and now we can't even get below freezing but by this evening that will be a diff story and by then the moisture is being stripped away from incoming dry air so..... Timing issues are real in weather situations. 37F where I am with graupel mixed with ice flakes, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2018 Author Share Posted December 17, 2018 3 hours ago, WesterlyWx said: What makes you think that? Blind optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vicarious Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 lake Erie was 41 back in 2001 when Buffalo got those insane multiple days of lake effect and right now Erie sits at 40 but with this warm weather might bump it up to 41 or keep it even at 40 by Christmas. Dec might be a little disappointing but the Lake is still plenty warm for some big time bands in Jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Euro has some decent accumulation over WNY on the backside of this system.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 The event for this upcoming weekend is far from being resolved as there's a chance this heads much further East than whats being advertised. Its a very anomalous track, to say the least, but it does happen on occasion but I doubt this is that occasion, especially considering the main ST this yr has been inland, so far, but not on the Western side of the apps, inland, lol, so I'm in the East side camp right now until I see this on Friday showing the same solution, which seems quite impossible, if you ask me my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 IDK. I’ve seen worse set ups. This could easily become a heavy wet snow event. Lots of time and the trend has been friendly. Honestly, for most of us, this is the white Christmas long shot. Nothing but wet snowshowers after. The EURO is pretty dang impressive for BUF. A tad bit colder and further east and we’d all get in on this. I’m not sold but increasingly intrigued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Doubtful there will be enough cold air around for a big wet snow event. Warmth is waaaaay up there in Canada. I wish it wasn't the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 What's happening up on Tug now? Thinking of skiing BREIA tomorrow......near Boonville. Point and click not calling for much up there but radar sure looks impressive. Any intel from up there? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Looks impressive on radar that's for sure!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 As a matter of fact, the Tug stands the best chance of seeing a few fluffy inches through this evening and the overnight because there in a great spot for several SW"s that are currently moving through the area. Theres I think 3 that have to pass through and we're seeing the results of the first, in a series, so the Tug looks like the best spot to be!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 just for kicks but it’d take something like this! JMA. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Getting some pretty heavy snow at the moment, mixing with graupel.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Getting some heavy snow in the Tug region currently. Working on a couple inches rright now. This is on top of a several inch glacier. It will be great for skiing in tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: just for kicks but it’d take something like this! JMA. Lol Got the German model? That seemed to fair pretty well when the other models struggled last winter at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 May be our best shot at a white christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: May be our best shot at a white christmas By “our”, you must mean the 4 people who live in Oswego county. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 We have 8 just on this board 9 if you count freaks double account Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Little shift to the east on the gfs, looks like a little more wrap around snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 By “our”, you must mean the 4 people who live in Oswego county. LOLYeah those 4, plus the 7200 students at OSU bonehead, lol! When you speak of the Tug, in such ways then its understandable, but NOT Oswego County.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 The GFS will.lose the weekend storm altogether come Wednesday, then it will come back to it's original forecast, lol. Gotta love the GooFuS but it has gotten a bit better as of late!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Lol...the church here in Redfield even has about 75 that attend it. The people in this area are more involved in the community than you might think. I have met lots of good people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 All rain except for the last 2 frames which would at least whiten up the area right before Xmas but I'm not counting on anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 6 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Yeah those 4, plus the 7200 students at OSU bonehead, lol! When you speak of the Tug, in such ways then its understandable, but NOT Oswego County. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 7 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Yeah those 4, plus the 7200 students at OSU bonehead, lol! When you speak of the Tug, in such ways then its understandable, but NOT Oswego County. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk He means the four people who post here. And also, it’s called hyperbole. You say similarly exaggerated things everyday. Chill the f out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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