BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 Happy anniversary of Snowvember! The Northeast looks to remain cool with a brief warmup from thanksgiving into the weekend. The end of the month looks to turn colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2018 Author Share Posted November 17, 2018 CPC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2018 Author Share Posted November 17, 2018 The PNA ridge looks to strengthen at the end of the month, The pacific looks neutral, with a negative NAO and negative AO which usually leads to the best mid Atlantic snowstorms. All in all it should result in slightly below normal temps which should translate to mostly snow at this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2018 Author Share Posted November 17, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2018 Author Share Posted November 17, 2018 The MJO looks to cycle its cold phase as well. All good signs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 27 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The PNA ridge looks to strengthen at the end of the month, The pacific looks neutral, with a negative NAO and negative AO which usually leads to the best mid Atlantic snowstorms. All in all it should result in slightly below normal temps which should translate to mostly snow at this time of year. Honest question...how does a tank AO and tank NAO with a ridge out west only get us to slightly BN temps? We're probably 6 or 7 bn for this month and we didn't have that set up at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 We are headed into the tank and this pattern has the capability of locking in for a few weeks so we'll see how it unfolds the next few weeks.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2018 Author Share Posted November 17, 2018 33 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Honest question...how does a tank AO and tank NAO with a ridge out west only get us to slightly BN temps? We're probably 6 or 7 bn for this month and we didn't have that set up at all. The pacific is neutral. We need a neg epo/wpo. This type of pattern is also the best for Southwest flow les events as we get a long wave through across the Great Lakes as the entry point of cold air we want across the dakotas/Montana, not confined to the northeast. A negative nao/ao favors a northwest flow due to blocking. So it’s not really the best pattern for Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 31 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The pacific is neutral. We need a neg epo/wpo. This type of pattern is also the best for Southwest flow les events as we get a long wave through across the Great Lakes as the entry point of cold air we want across the dakotas/Montana, not confined to the northeast. A negative nao/ao favors a northwest flow due to blocking. So it’s not really the best pattern for Buffalo. So that's kind of my point...it reminds me of 09-10 when we were frigid but dry because the storm track was off to our east (I think that's the year of all the big easy coast storms) and we were high and dry but frigid...save for that one odd NW flow event that clobbered Niagara Falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2018 Author Share Posted November 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: So that's kind of my point...it reminds me of 09-10 when we were frigid but dry because the storm track was off to our east (I think that's the year of all the big easy coast storms) and we were high and dry but frigid...save for that one odd NW flow event that clobbered Niagara Falls. Exactly, but it's still relatively early so we won't be frigid in late Nov even with 5-6 deg. departures. I'm leaning towards slightly below normal due to Pacific. We need to get a metro lake effect event in December or we will have to rely upon synoptic to reach above average snowfall. But don't forget in 76-77, Lake Erie was frozen by the New Year and that was our best winter of all time. There are always statistical anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2018 Author Share Posted November 17, 2018 Never thought I'd see a map like this for Nov 17th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 Posted in the Lakes... Thought I'd share here too. 16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Never thought I'd see a map like this for Nov 17th. Posted in the Lakes... Thought I'd share here too. Your area is off to a great start. Hope Erie doesn't cool too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 Have a chance to not get out of the teens on Thanksgiving, with snow showers with a stiff NW wind, so that's close to 25 degrees below the norm for mid-to-late November. That type of cold, for this time of yr, is definitely not needed, lol, only needs to be 32 to snow!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2018 Author Share Posted November 18, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Went down to the Rome/Utica area....there is a HUGE difference in snow depth there compared to my house 40 minutes away from Rome. So much less down there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Posted in the Lakes... Thought I'd share here too. Posted in the Lakes... Thought I'd share here too. Your area is off to a great start. Hope Erie doesn't cool too soon. I have serious doubts about the depth in Niagara County or the Enscarpment itself. There are areas that literally got nothing up there, seriously? How is that even possible? Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 40 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: I have serious doubts about the depth in Niagara County or the Enscarpment itself. There are areas that literally got nothing up there, seriously? How is that even possible? Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Looks like maybe a single wx reporter reporting zero. It has an odd circular shape (typically unusual). I’d think they must of had at least an inch or two? On the other hand, Niagara and Orleans are infamous snow holes and this year hasn’t had crap come off Erie on a SSW flow. Mostly elevation synoptic, WNW LES and our recent dump that left them shafted with sleet. Great map, otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Quite the chilly night tonight , down to 19° , cloudy skies but still a decent snowpack and light winds.. Interesting time period day 8-10..Both Euro and GGEM show 2 big storms during that time period with a ton of precipitation.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 6 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: I have serious doubts about the depth in Niagara County or the Enscarpment itself. There are areas that literally got nothing up there, seriously? How is that even possible? Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk The snow hole in Niagara has a 1.5-2" season total. Areas that have seen no snow to date would be just plain white, so the only place on the map I see that hasn't had any snow is on the Jersey shore. I think the map is pretty accurate... not 100%, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 We gotta watch the little feature slated for Tuesday. If we can get a little earlier interaction between the two pieces of energy, it’ll be west. Looking at deep cold on turkey day. There’s another small feature coming north of the lake. If it stays north, it will back the winds to SW. BUF, I smell something here! Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Maybe a funky run but euro slams roc with 20 inches in day 8 to 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 56 minutes ago, tim123 said: Maybe a funky run but euro slams roc with 20 inches in day 8 to 10 Just roc??? What about all of WNY??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Yes all of wny 10 to 25 inches. But that seems extreme. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 40 minutes ago, tim123 said: Yes all of wny 10 to 25 inches. But that seems extreme. Lol Who cares anyway, 10 days out? If it was 9 days, Id be interested! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 I’m getting at least 20” over the next 10 days. With the leaf piles I left and some creative side sticking- I could probably measure that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 There's no warm-up coming anytime soon, in fact, its gonna get even colder and stormier, so if anyone is expecting one last tee time, I'd call it off for the forseeable future, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Yea, wouldn’t be to confident with this look lol It’s 8-10 days away and models are showing two distinct events.. This looks like some sort of inverted trough , conveyer belt of moisture streaming in from the Atlantic.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Hey Tim, Wofie, which euro provider did you go with? Weatherbell? Ive gotta up my game. I want access to the new 6/18z runs. Are you getting those? Wxbell was good because it also had some meso models if I recall correctly (doubtful). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Just now, wolfie09 said: Yea, wouldn’t be to confident with this look lol It’s 8-10 days away and models are showing two distinct events.. This looks like some sort of inverted trough , conveyer belt of moisture streaming in from the Atlantic.. That won't be like that in 12 hrs, much less 10 days, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Yea, wouldn’t be to confident with this look lol It’s 8-10 days away and models are showing two distinct events.. This looks like some sort of inverted trough , conveyer belt of moisture streaming in from the Atlantic.. I remember one like that, but not that localized. The S BUF and SYR boys would be on suicide watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.