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November/December Medium/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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3 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

I think he is referring to the initial coastal at day 5. You can see the CAD set up farther to the south backed up against the Appalachians as the low is still down around the Florida panhandle. With the positioning of the high almost due east of us there really is no chance for CAD up through our region as the SE air rotating around the high is already scouring out our cold. By the time the low starts impacting our region around 108 hr the cold is long gone.

 

CADsetup.gif.27d3c2a2e95220137daf972ee3498a60.gif

You are correct.

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27 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

I see the blocking pattern as transitory. December should be warmer. 

I need to make a log of your posts.  One day the pattern looks blocky, the cold consistent, the storms are icy.  The next day its transitory, warmer, rainier.

Gives me a damn headache.

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32 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

I see the blocking pattern as transitory. December should be warmer. 

I can see warmer later in the month, but not the early part.  

Plus,  we get a favorable MJO phase 8   1    2   progression as well in December. 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I need to make a log of your posts.  One day the pattern looks blocky, the cold consistent, the storms are icy.  The next day its transitory, warmer, rainier.

Gives me a damn headache.

I've seen a lot of pattern evolutions from late November into early December since the early 2000s.          It's kind of like 2005/1989.   The El Nino lost strength today because of -PNA. 

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37 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GEFS strongly favor a TN valley transfer to SC/NC coast around the 2nd-3rd. Not sure if this is just their nondispersive nature showing up again to support the Op at 300 hr leads.  Seems possible. But the setup is very nice, that’s for sure.

I checked the ensemble members. Spread is big as to be expected but the majority of the wet solutions are too warm. A couple classic tracks but the mean is a bit misleading. 

f312.gif

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25 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

euroice.PNG

Afternoon AFD from LWX highlights this and discusses this as well:

Quote

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A upper level ridge will be in place over our region through most of
Friday. A surface low at the surface will slowly start to shift
northeastward out of the region. Cool and dry weather will continue
through the early parts of Friday. Winds will become southerly as
the surface high moves northeastwards. The southerly flow will help
transport some slightly more moist air into the region. The 00Z Euro
and the 12Z GFS both agree that the surface high will settle over
New England and the the New England coast.

Saturday into Sunday, a frontal boundary will approach from the west
with a upper level trough at 500mb. Both GFS and Euro agree that
precipitation will start to affect the western parts of our CWA
early Saturday morning.  The models start to differ on how the
surface low that forms over the panhandle of Florida moves
northward. The Euro keeps the track closer to the coast while the
GFS takes the main low out to sea through the Carolinas.
Precipitation will be likely on Saturday and possibly into the early
parts of Sunday.  The big unknown for this system will be the type
of precipitation especially along our mountainous zones. The 850
temperatures hover in the one to 3 degree range especially over the
higher elevations while Euro surface temperature output suggest near
or slightly below freezing at the surface. This would be freezing
rain to a winter mix for most areas around the Blue Ridge and
possibly as far east as I-95. The canadian model shows a similar
solutions with warm air aloft and could air at the surface. High
pressure to the northeast could help dam in cold air over the
region. We will be tracking the type of precipitation for Saturday
morning and into Sunday. Most precipitation is expected to be out of
the region by Sunday morning. Weak high pressure will briefly build
into the region on Sunday.
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