BristowWx Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/more-snow-on-the-way-for-dc/ar-BBPUI5v We are not the only ones excited about this timeframe. This was on MSNBC...a 312 hr weather map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Impressive setup on the GFS in Fanatasy land. It changes to rain, but h5 resembles March 58. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 I don't care if it changes to rain. This is the H5 map we've been waiting for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, Amped said: I don't care if it changes to rain. This is the H5 map we've been waiting for. Verbatim it changes back to snow at the end. Its just good to see the ops continue spitting out chances for that window now. Keep it coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 I see the blocking pattern as transitory. December should be warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 3 hours ago, showmethesnow said: I think he is referring to the initial coastal at day 5. You can see the CAD set up farther to the south backed up against the Appalachians as the low is still down around the Florida panhandle. With the positioning of the high almost due east of us there really is no chance for CAD up through our region as the SE air rotating around the high is already scouring out our cold. By the time the low starts impacting our region around 108 hr the cold is long gone. You are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 GEFS strongly favor a TN valley transfer to SC/NC coast around the 2nd-3rd. Not sure if this is just their nondispersive nature showing up again to support the Op at 300 hr leads. Seems possible. But the setup is very nice, that’s for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 20, 2018 Author Share Posted November 20, 2018 27 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I see the blocking pattern as transitory. December should be warmer. I need to make a log of your posts. One day the pattern looks blocky, the cold consistent, the storms are icy. The next day its transitory, warmer, rainier. Gives me a damn headache. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 32 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I see the blocking pattern as transitory. December should be warmer. I can see warmer later in the month, but not the early part. Plus, we get a favorable MJO phase 8 1 2 progression as well in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I need to make a log of your posts. One day the pattern looks blocky, the cold consistent, the storms are icy. The next day its transitory, warmer, rainier. Gives me a damn headache. I've seen a lot of pattern evolutions from late November into early December since the early 2000s. It's kind of like 2005/1989. The El Nino lost strength today because of -PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Euro is colder for both of the storms, zero line is almost pushing it in both cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 37 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GEFS strongly favor a TN valley transfer to SC/NC coast around the 2nd-3rd. Not sure if this is just their nondispersive nature showing up again to support the Op at 300 hr leads. Seems possible. But the setup is very nice, that’s for sure. I checked the ensemble members. Spread is big as to be expected but the majority of the wet solutions are too warm. A couple classic tracks but the mean is a bit misleading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Euro is colder for both of the storms, zero line is almost pushing it in both cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: If the coastal trof forms, it will be colder still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I see the blocking pattern as transitory. December should be warmer. Shut up Chuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 48 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I need to make a log of your posts. One day the pattern looks blocky, the cold consistent, the storms are icy. The next day its transitory, warmer, rainier. Gives me a damn headache. Ignore is really good for some problems! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 2 hours ago, BristowWx said: http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/more-snow-on-the-way-for-dc/ar-BBPUI5v We are not the only ones excited about this timeframe. This was on MSNBC...a 312 hr weather map? Please Bristow, no more MSNBC maps, fake weather lol. Besides 15 days out is fools gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Please Bristow, no more MSNBC maps, fake weather lol. Besides 15 days out is fools gold. What if we post the Fox News map next to the MSNBC map then have a panel on to debate about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 8 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Please Bristow, no more MSNBC maps, fake weather lol. Besides 15 days out is fools gold. Sorry, I was just making a point how mainstream media is hyping something at hr 312. No endorsement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 25 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Afternoon AFD from LWX highlights this and discusses this as well: Quote .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A upper level ridge will be in place over our region through most of Friday. A surface low at the surface will slowly start to shift northeastward out of the region. Cool and dry weather will continue through the early parts of Friday. Winds will become southerly as the surface high moves northeastwards. The southerly flow will help transport some slightly more moist air into the region. The 00Z Euro and the 12Z GFS both agree that the surface high will settle over New England and the the New England coast. Saturday into Sunday, a frontal boundary will approach from the west with a upper level trough at 500mb. Both GFS and Euro agree that precipitation will start to affect the western parts of our CWA early Saturday morning. The models start to differ on how the surface low that forms over the panhandle of Florida moves northward. The Euro keeps the track closer to the coast while the GFS takes the main low out to sea through the Carolinas. Precipitation will be likely on Saturday and possibly into the early parts of Sunday. The big unknown for this system will be the type of precipitation especially along our mountainous zones. The 850 temperatures hover in the one to 3 degree range especially over the higher elevations while Euro surface temperature output suggest near or slightly below freezing at the surface. This would be freezing rain to a winter mix for most areas around the Blue Ridge and possibly as far east as I-95. The canadian model shows a similar solutions with warm air aloft and could air at the surface. High pressure to the northeast could help dam in cold air over the region. We will be tracking the type of precipitation for Saturday morning and into Sunday. Most precipitation is expected to be out of the region by Sunday morning. Weak high pressure will briefly build into the region on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What if we post the Fox News map next to the MSNBC map then have a panel on to debate about it. We don't need no alternative weather maps in here!!! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I see the blocking pattern as transitory. December should be warmer. Wow what a whopper from Chuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Storm chances aside...Eps keeps looking colder in the LR (D11-15). With that look up top and on the west coast I would think we have a pretty good period in early dec of some sig neg departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Pattern looks transient to me. I expect by April or May it will warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: Pattern looks transient to me. I expect by April or May it will warm up. You are so controversial! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Pattern looks transient to me. I expect by April or May it will warm up. Shit - winter cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: You are so controversial! Hot takes are in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 keep the political stuff out of this thread, a friendly heads up. someone posting MSNBC stuff doesn't mean they are endorsing anything from MSNBC, and vice versa for any other MSM network. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 1 minute ago, mappy said: keep the political stuff out of this thread, a friendly heads up. someone posting MSNBC stuff doesn't mean they are endorsing anything from MSNBC, and vice versa for any other MSM network. thanks I don't think anyone was being serious. I think they were just joking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don't think anyone was being serious. I think they were just joking. thats fine, but at least it's been said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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