November/December Medium/Long Range Disco

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

To add to the weeniefest going on.... lol

Cfs weeklies are below normal temps weeks 3-6 and above normal precip week 3. Cfs monthly is below normal temps Dec and Jan with Jan looking very cold.  

Wall to wall winter incoming?

That is quite the look for January. Of course with the CFS, in a few runs we could see a complete inversion of that h5 panel lol.

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Frozen bay? 

Would be unusual for a nino. 02-03 had decent ice cover iirc. Seeing 02 popping up on analogs so that's encouraging. 

3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That is quite the look for January. Of course with the CFS, in a few runs we could see a complete inversion of that h5 panel lol.

Pretty eye opening to see all long range guidance showing different versions but all include cold temps and decent hemispheric patterns for snowfall here. Every week that goes by looks better too. 

My guess is the relaxation with the AO on the euro weeklies will gradually evolve towards less or no relaxation. Would fit historical data of other December's that had strong blocking events.  

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

It's going to be a nice Winterstorm in the 5-6 day. Look at the NAM looped, it looks good. Maybe WSW criteria in the northern counties.

Every trend has been toward more rain to match the rain every 2-3 days trend since April. 

[aldie 22]

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Would be unusual for a nino. 02-03 had decent ice cover iirc. Seeing 02 popping up on analogs so that's encouraging. 

Pretty eye opening to see all long range guidance showing different versions but all include cold temps and decent hemispheric patterns for snowfall here. Every week that goes by looks better too. 

My guess is the relaxation with the AO on the euro weeklies will gradually evolve towards less or no relaxation. Would fit historical data of other December's that had strong blocking events.  

 

Should know more in two weeks 

[psuhoffman]

@Bob Chill they aren't going to let you forget that 2 weeks thing!  I can't complain about anything I'm seeing right now. Things still progressing as we want them too. Just have to be patient now. Last week was a nice tease but it got the winters here feeling going and then you realize it's still only mid November and usually we're still like 60 right now and not even thinking of tracking yet. 

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

Should know more in two weeks 

We'll be shoveling again in 2 weeks. And again 2 weeks after that. 

[frd]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Would be unusual for a nino. 02-03 had decent ice cover iirc. Seeing 02 popping up on analogs so that's encouraging. 

Pretty eye opening to see all long range guidance showing different versions but all include cold temps and decent hemispheric patterns for snowfall here. Every week that goes by looks better too. 

My guess is the relaxation with the AO on the euro weeklies will gradually evolve towards less or no relaxation. Would fit historical data of other December's that had strong blocking events.  

 

This Thursday represents the second time this Fall season that the coldest air on the globe is over our areas. Last time temps were in the in the 30's , this time will be in the 20's and single digits in the coldest spots for lows. 

I wonder if this repeats after a period modification later in the winter season, say Jan or Feb.,  but this time even colder yet for us.

Seems the atmosphere and general pattern want to deliver wet and cold going forward. I think that even though this is an El Nino it is not a typical one at all. HM alluded to this and the walker cell and other factors. Plus cold Ukmet and colder trends with the recent seasonal models.  Plus record NH snow cover. 

The never ending warmth up North and still ice free seas beckon more blocking I think . 

I feel there is a connection to the areas with a lack of sea ice and above average temps up Northeast of Greenland, because that is exactly the area(s) where the crazy 580 block developed.     

 

 

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

[midatlanticweather]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

We'll be shoveling again in 2 weeks. And again 2 weeks after that. 

Shoveling one thing or another 

[North Balti Zen]

3 hours ago, nj2va said:

Frozen bay? 

The frozen bay chasing remains the weirdest weather fetish i have run across since I moved here in 2009.

[yoda]

00z GFS is tasty at the end of its run... Dec 4 and 5th threat is there and you can see another threat coming right after

[Scud]

2 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Should gets some "pingers," in the metro, to herald in the WAA, per November, 15 degree rule

Scud

[showmethesnow]

Have liked what I have seen for the last couple of days as far as the potential for after our early next week storm. Was just waiting for the models to get a grasp on how they wanted to handle that storm to give us some clarity for beyond that period of time. Well the models seem to be coming into fairly good agreement with that storm so now it is time to start paying attention to what the models spit out in the extended. And let me tell you, the overnight runs are getting my attention. Temps permitting (still early in the winter after all) we could be looking at a fairly exciting stretch in the extended.

[CAPE]

There is a noticeable uptick in the mean snowfall over the past couple EPS runs for days 10-15. This fits with what continues to look like a period with some potential based on recent model guidance. It doesn't look like a particularly cold period, but probably somewhat below normal temps, which could work with a storm tracking across the south and moving up along the SE/MA coast. EPS continues to hint at this in Dec 3-5 time frame.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Have liked what I have seen for the last couple of days as far as the potential for after our early next week storm. Was just waiting for the models to get a grasp on how they wanted to handle that storm to give us some clarity for beyond that period of time. Well the models seem to be coming into fairly good agreement with that storm so now it is time to start paying attention to what the models spit out in the extended. And let me tell you, the overnight runs are getting my attention. Temps permitting (still early in the winter after all) we could be looking at a fairly exciting stretch in the extended.

Looks like we are both up early with the coffee looking at weatherbell panels  

[showmethesnow]

4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

There is a noticeable uptick in the mean snowfall over the past couple EPS runs for days 10-15. This fits with what continues to look like a period with some potential based on recent model guidance. It doesn't look like a particularly cold period, but probably somewhat below normal temps, which could work with a storm tracking across the south and moving up along the SE/MA coast. EPS continues to hint at this Dec 3-5 time frame.

Still somewhat like the Nov 30- Dec 1 period of time. Eps still has that in play. GEFS not so much though because of suppression. Wonder if the GEF's habit of over playing the northern stream is coming into play here? Have no idea with this newest version. But take that suppression out and I think the GEFS would be hinting at a storm as well.

[showmethesnow]

9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

There is a noticeable uptick in the mean snowfall over the past couple EPS runs for days 10-15. This fits with what continues to look like a period with some potential based on recent model guidance. It doesn't look like a particularly cold period, but probably somewhat below normal temps, which could work with a storm tracking across the south and moving up along the SE/MA coast. EPS continues to hint at this Dec 3-5 time frame.

Did you see the control run? A low at day 12 running up the coast at 986 over OC, 981 over the Delaware bay and 977 over central Jersey? Shift that 100 miles east and then take our chances with the temps. 

[Scud]

06z data showing a developing coastal trof with a CAD next system. 

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Did you see the control run? A low at day 12 running up the coast at 986 over OC, 981 over the Delaware bay and 977 over central Jersey? Shift that 100 miles east and then take our chances with the temps. 

Yep. Saw that.  Looks tasty and plenty of time for things to trend more favorably.  

[kurtstack]

Hey guys - I'm back for the winter.  I usually don't drop in here until December 15th, but I looked at the AO and NAO indices and it's telling me we are going to have some early season events to track.  Good to be back and always good to read your great posts.  I'll be lurking and reading most of the winter, but happy to be back tracking with you all.

 

[frd]

Wow, this does look impressive. I would think the outcomes are more El Nino like conditions and a longer lasting El Nino into the Spring and beyond possibly.

No wimpy kid here. 

This combined with seasonal blocking patterns hopefully delivers a big dog eventually. 

 

 

[Thanatos_I_Am]

2 hours ago, Scud said:

06z data showing a developing coastal trof with a CAD next system. 

Are you referring to the storm at the end of the run? Because that... that looks mighty juicy. 1034 high overtop, closed low over Arkansas, and the trof going negative.

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, frd said:

Wow, this does look impressive. I would think the outcomes are more El Nino like conditions and a longer lasting El Nino into the Spring and beyond possibly.

No wimpy kid here. 

This combined with seasonal blocking patterns hopefully delivers a big dog eventually. 

 

 

Is it still possible that...it could reach moderate status at some point? (And this officially Modoki, btw?)

[showmethesnow]

35 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Are you referring to the storm at the end of the run? Because that... that looks mighty juicy. 1034 high overtop, closed low over Arkansas, and the trof going negative.

I think he is referring to the initial coastal at day 5. You can see the CAD set up farther to the south backed up against the Appalachians as the low is still down around the Florida panhandle. With the positioning of the high almost due east of us there really is no chance for CAD up through our region as the SE air rotating around the high is already scouring out our cold. By the time the low starts impacting our region around 108 hr the cold is long gone.

 

[BristowWx]

I think he is referring to hour 372-384 on 6z GFS.  Way to far out to think about.  GEFS looks ok at h5...I think

[frd]

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Is it still possible that...it could reach moderate status at some point? (And this officially Modoki, btw?)

The most important take away is that the Nino is Modaki and central based. That is  critical. Another plus, the El Nino is not weakening. 

Most forecasts call for a high-end weak Modaki El Nino.  

However, keep in mind that there is some uniqueness here with this El Nino. 

HM alluded to the walker cell and how talked about this last week. 

I almost think this type of El Nino so far seems to be wanting to favor cold. IMHO

As per DT on this :

 

 

 

[Scraff]

ALEET!

Roads likely to cave somewhere beyond Friendsgiving...

[frd]

No No No No he did not post this .........

Yes Yes Yes I like it though :-)   :-)  

Eh....the way things are going, well why not ??  

A little DC lovin 

 

[Amped]

Looking at the SLP anaomolies the GEFS is hinting at something DEC 3-4. You can see a bit of a CAD signature with a high over S Ontario.

[CAPE]

34 minutes ago, frd said:

No No No No he did not post this .........

Yes Yes Yes I like it though :-)   :-)  

Eh....the way things are going, well why not ??  

A little DC lovin 

 

As I posted this morning, the EPS snowfall mean has ticked up some. The jacked up map above is the best one out of about 8 members that have significant snow for the DC area through day 15. A few more are close misses, then the majority are either too warm/rain/ nothing. Still a pretty decent signal for this far out. Looking at the mean all the snow occurs day 10-15. As we have been discussing, the ensembles seem to be focusing on Dec 3-5 currently.