Scraff Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 It’s “likely” my roads will “cave” in the coming weeks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 GEFS is ripe for December 4-5. Can see a southern stream shortwave enter CA and cross the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 The -PNA is gone by hr84, then it's +PNA/-NAO, and 50/50 Low for the next storm. I say maybe freezing rain and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 The Euro at 240 looks real interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: The Euro at 240 looks real interesting. Hopefully the ridge developing over the Eastern plains doesnt link up with the fading/retrograding NAO ridge....that would be bad. A mid or full lat ridge centered over the Mississippi River longitude would basically equate to the pattern rolling over on itself. It's a long way out but keep that 50/50 there, keep the NAO ridge in tact or at least separate, and keep the bowling ball coming across and we might be in business. Like you said.....interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 I don't know why the vibe is so low right now.. it's a pretty awesome setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Mike masco just posted a really good video of his Fb page speaking the the upcoming pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 He isn't a meteorologist Mike masco just posted a really good video of his Fb page speaking the the upcoming pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 15 minutes ago, Ji said: He isn't a meteorologist Better than Tony Pann though. He is horrific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Too bad that 1037 H is slowly moving out... 18z GFS from 276-312 looked intriguing a lil bit... until there was no transfer lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 3 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I don't know why the vibe is so low right now.. it's a pretty awesome setup. I think we all get impatient to some degree. A great setup still takes time and then maybe nothing happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 A picture is worth a thousand words, so here are some snapshots from the latest edition of the EPS weeklies for your interpretation. Pretty good overall IMO, but there is some relaxation up top. The last panel looks quite delicious as we head into Jan. And as always, take it fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Transfers pretty quickly to a coastal low, I think the 1st piece will take all of the energy early and possibly retrograde back. It fits the rainy setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 I like it @C.A.P.E.. As the season shows it's hand I think you can give more weight to the panels that show what our background state looks like. Aleutian low, +PNA/-EPO and hedging toward a -AO. Not that the panels showing something different are wrong but even with the muted depiction you can still see the "background state" in there. This run is a win imo.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 I like days 11 to 18 :-) Thanks for posting ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Looking at the evolution in this animation you have to think we score at least something. And no 80 degrees, yippie ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 9 minutes ago, poolz1 said: I like it @C.A.P.E.. As the season shows it's hand I think you can give more weight to the panels that show what our background state looks like. Aleutian low, +PNA/-EPO and hedging toward a -AO. Not that the panels showing something different are wrong but even with the muted depiction you can still see the "background state" in there. This run is a win imo.... Yeah I feel really confident in a favorable PAC at this point, especially as we move through December and into Jan. The AO/NAO is still a bit up in the air, but I see nothing currently that suggests we endure a prolonged +AO. Fwiw, on the latest weeklies the AO looks neutral for much of the middle third of Dec, but then goes negative at the end of the month. I suspect the period that favors the best chances of a legit and persistent -NAO will be mid Jan into early March. Until then we will probably have some transient/bootleg NA blocking episodes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 8 minutes ago, frd said: I like days 11 to 18 :-) Thanks for posting ! I like the chances for a snowy NYE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Interesting technical read here wrt the ENSO impact on the NAO. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00037.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah I feel really confident in a favorable PAC at this point, especially as we move through December and into Jan. The AO/NAO is still a bit up in the air, but I see nothing currently that suggests we endure a prolonged +AO. Fwiw, on the latest weeklies the AO looks neutral for much of the middle third of Dec, but then goes negative at the end of the month. I suspect the period that favors the best chances of a legit and persistent -NAO will be mid Jan into early March. Until then we will probably have some transient/bootleg NA blocking episodes. If anything pressure continues on the PV - the weeklies might even be underestimating any -NAO and -AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I like the chances for a snowy NYE That be awesome !!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Just now, frd said: If anything pressure continues on the PV - the weeklies might even be underestimating any -NAO and -AO Yeah I have been keeping an eye on the modeled strat PV perturbations. I guess it remains to be seen what the long term impacts will be. Just a hunch(based on how things have gone so far) but something tells me we wont see some prolonged re consolidation of the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah I have been keeping an eye on the modeled strat PV perturbations. I guess it remains to be seen what the long term impacts will be. Just a hunch(based on how things have gone so far) but something tells me we wont see some prolonged re consolidation of the PV. Agree.....this fits too the backdrop of many winter forecasts, for example Isotherm's ,where he states the pressure will remain on the PV throughtout the winter in varying degrees. Nothing right now points to a powerful PV in the near or medium range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 I like the countless good signs heading into not just December, but the winter as a whole. So far, anything bad that was advertised on previous models keeps busting and turning into a favorable pattern. I've seen this with the CFS, forecasting a warm November but that obviously is busting. I'm still on board with a decent start to December with a few threats to alleviate our PTSD (Post-Tracking stress disorder), and the DJF as a whole. I don't see any signs of a strong PV or a raging positive AO/NAO, instead that the upcoming winter will be fun (At least we are starting December with a not-craptastic pattern, given the consistency of warm/unfavorable December patterns for snow and cold that I've seen the past five years. Just my two cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherLovingDoc Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Pardon me all. I've reviewed many posts since yesterday. Are we here in Washington DC area suppose to get way below normal temps for Thanksgiving and Friday for sure? I have family coming in. Tyvm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, WeatherLovingDoc said: Pardon me all. I've reviewed many posts since yesterday. Are we here in Washington DC area suppose to get way below normal temps for Thanksgiving and Friday for sure? I have family coming in. Tyvm. Yes. Tell them to dress for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 @C.A.P.E. Nice posts. Assuming the pattern for Nov 30 - ~10 Dec still looks this ripe in another 4-5 days, I would start getting my hopes up. It's really just an absolute classic MA snowstorm pattern. A bit of a bummer it's coming so early in the season because in another month we'd have KU potential. It's pretty amazing to see individual s/w packets on the GEFS and EPS in the Day 12+ time frame coming into the Pac coast and coming across the CONUS. That's a robust signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: @C.A.P.E. Nice posts. Assuming the pattern for Nov 30 - ~10 Dec still looks this ripe in another 4-5 days, I would start getting my hopes up. It's really just an absolute classic MA snowstorm pattern. A bit of a bummer it's coming so early in the season because in another month we'd have KU potential. It's pretty amazing to see individual s/w packets on the GEFS and EPS in the Day 12+ time frame coming into the Pac coast and coming across the CONUS. That's a robust signal. Agreed. This one sort of caught my eye today on the 12z run of the EPS. A chilly rain verbatim but its pretty far out and a pretty good look overall. Not a lot of super cold air in our source region but probably good enough, and still time for that to improve. Plus this is my birthday, so lets go for the 3rd instead of the 5th lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 To add to the weeniefest going on.... lol Cfs weeklies are below normal temps weeks 3-6 and above normal precip week 3. Cfs monthly is below normal temps Dec and Jan with Jan looking very cold. Wall to wall winter incoming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: To add to the weeniefest going on.... lol Cfs weeklies are below normal temps weeks 3-6 and above normal precip week 3. Cfs monthly is below normal temps Dec and Jan with Jan looking very cold. Wall to wall winter incoming? Frozen bay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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