November/December Medium/Long Range Disco

[showmethesnow]

Looking at the weak Tuesday system, the GEFS has backed off somewhat for any potential snow through the northern portions of our region. EPS isn't enthusiastic at all and hasn't been. Considering that the EPS had a better handle on the temp profile of last weeks storm I would probably side with it and think that it will be more wet then white for our region.

[showmethesnow]

Until the models resolve how they want to handle the storm/storms through the day 7-9 period I think what to expect day 10 onward is pretty much a crap shoot. Models have no clear signal in regards to storms and are pretty much all over the place. All I know at this point is the general pattern is good through that time period and will go from there. Think once the models get a handle on the day 7-9 period is when we start seeing stronger storm/storms signals in the extended. Now whether we are talking of the wet or white variety is still to be determined.

[CAPE]

20 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Until the models resolve how they want to handle the storm/storms through the day 7-9 period I think what to expect day 10 onward is pretty much a crap shoot. Models have no clear signal in regards to storms and are pretty much all over the place. All I know at this point is the general pattern is good through that time period and will go from there. Think once the models get a handle on the day 7-9 period is when we start seeing stronger storm/storms signals in the extended. Now whether we are talking of the wet or white variety is still to be determined.

This looks slightly interesting, especially if you ignore the low pressure around the Great Lakes lol.

[showmethesnow]

7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

This looks slightly interesting, especially if you ignore the low pressure around the Great Lakes lol.

 

Shhhh.... We don't discuss that on these boards. 

I haven't fully given up on that period of time yet for us possibly seeing a little snow. There have been some looks here and there that had me going hmmmm. The cold is just so far away that I can only think of a couple of scenarios that could play out that would work. Unlikely scenarios at that. But still a week away so you never know.

[CAPE]

45 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Shhhh.... We don't discuss that on these boards. 

I haven't fully given up on that period of time yet for us possibly seeing a little snow. There have been some looks here and there that had me going hmmmm. The cold is just so far away that I can only think of a couple of scenarios that could play out that would work. Unlikely scenarios at that. But still a week away so you never know.

Yeah it would really take something extraordinary for anything other than rain as it looks right now.

[poolz1]

Usually the euro starts coming to it's senses by now if it's off it's rocker.... but 00z run comes in even a bit colder for T-Day.  Pretty impressive cold...mid-winter style.  Mid 10's for Friday morning.

[midatlanticweather]

NWS has introduced rain and snow possible next Saturday.. hmmmmm - not feeling it.. We will see.

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

NWS has introduced rain and snow possible next Saturday.. hmmmmm - not feeling it.. We will see.

I read the AFD from this morning.  Not feeling it either with stale cold air and eastward moving HP.  NE areas perhaps.  They said stay tuned...we will

[BristowWx]

9 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Usually the euro starts coming to it's senses by now if it's off it's rocker.... but 00z run comes in even a bit colder for T-Day.  Pretty impressive cold...mid-winter style.  Mid 10's for Friday morning.

I am getting spoiled by this season.  Snow before thanksgiving then cold on the actual day.  I need to get my latitude in check.  

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Usually the euro starts coming to it's senses by now if it's off it's rocker.... but 00z run comes in even a bit colder for T-Day.  Pretty impressive cold...mid-winter style.  Mid 10's for Friday morning.

 

NWS is gradually trending downward with the high temps. My forecast high for T-day a couple days ago was 49, then 43 yesterday, now 36.

[poolz1]

20 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I am getting spoiled by this season.  Snow before thanksgiving then cold on the actual day.  I need to get my latitude in check.  

yeah man...getting spoiled myself.  I find myself getting bummed that we dont have something to track...but it's freaking Nov still!  Reality will slowly creep back in...

[BristowWx]

11 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

yeah man...getting spoiled myself.  I find myself getting bummed that we dont have something to track...but it's freaking Nov still!  Reality will slowly creep back in...

Or the hits just keep coming Dec to March. Right now we are flush with cash, drinks are flowing and we keep getting aces dealt to us...maybe the house won’t win heh

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah it would really take something extraordinary for anything other than rain as it looks right now.

This isn't really just an early season problem. Anytime a blocking regime establishes but the antecedent airmass over the Conus is warm it takes a while. We can look at the last two significant blocking periods as examples. Last year the blocking started to establish the very end of February but we then had to waste a couple perfect track storms to rain early March before enough cold got into the pattern to support legit snow threats. January 2016 was the same and that was mid season. I distinctly remember a perfect coastal track storm but it was too warm. My area mixed with slush bombs when the precip was heavy but that's it. The boundary layer was torched still. It took a week or so and a few rain storms before we got a real threat. So even in mid winter if the airmass is warm when blocking develops it takes a while. Unfortunately typically that's the case as when we get blocking it's often the result of the PV being bombarded by waves and like this case both a retrograding ridge and a Conus ridge combine to displace and weaken the PV and create high lat blocking. But the Conus ridge also scours out all the cold too so we start the new pattern with an awful airmass in place.  

Im also not concerned about needing a "perfect" pattern. This isn't a Nina. There is no glaring flaw we have to overcome this year. Remember the years where it just seemed to want to snow? A cow in Ohio would fart and we would get snow.  My gut says this is one of those years.  The pattern the last few weeks has been decent but ambiguous in most ways. Far from perfect. Yet we have had numerous coastal systems that in winter would have been a snowfall event and one actual snowfall out of an only half decent pattern in NOVEMBER!  I feel that even if we only have a decent h5 pattern at times this is a year that can work.  

[CAPE]

23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This isn't really just an early season problem. Anytime a blocking regime establishes but the antecedent airmass over the Conus is warm it takes a while. We can look at the last two significant blocking periods as examples. Last year the blocking started to establish the very end of February but we then had to waste a couple perfect track storms to rain early March before enough cold got into the pattern to support legit snow threats. January 2016 was the same and that was mid season. I distinctly remember a perfect coastal track storm but it was too warm. My area mixed with slush bombs when the precip was heavy but that's it. The boundary layer was torched still. It took a week or so and a few rain storms before we got a real threat. So even in mid winter if the airmass is warm when blocking develops it takes a while. Unfortunately typically that's the case as when we get blocking it's often the result of the PV being bombarded by waves and like this case both a retrograding ridge and a Conus ridge combine to displace and weaken the PV and create high lat blocking. But the Conus ridge also scours out all the cold too so we start the new pattern with an awful airmass in place.  

Im also not concerned about needing a "perfect" pattern. This isn't a Nina. There is no glaring flaw we have to overcome this year. Remember the years where it just seemed to want to snow? A cow in Ohio would fart and we would get snow.  My gut says this is one of those years.  The pattern the last few weeks has been decent but ambiguous in most ways. Far from perfect. Yet we have had numerous coastal systems that in winter would have been a snowfall event and one actual snowfall out of an only half decent pattern in NOVEMBER!  I feel that even if we only have a decent h5 pattern at times this is a year that can work.  

Agreed. If the overall pattern is what we think it is, there is plenty to look forward to. I invested nothing in last week's event, because it was clearly not going to produce much for places east of the fall line. Although if that AM thump had not been a total whiff here, I would have gotten a couple inches. By the time precip started coming down in earnest, it was around 10 am, and I ended up with 0.3" of mostly sleet. Anyway, climo even for here becomes more favorable for frozen over the next few weeks. Looking at the LR, at this point I suspect we will see a relaxation in the NA for early Dec, but it looks like the E/NPAC will be getting its act together to compensate.

[Superstorm]

Good snowpack in Eastern Canada can help with marginal air masses.


.

[showmethesnow]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

This isn't really just an early season problem. Anytime a blocking regime establishes but the antecedent airmass over the Conus is warm it takes a while. We can look at the last two significant blocking periods as examples. Last year the blocking started to establish the very end of February but we then had to waste a couple perfect track storms to rain early March before enough cold got into the pattern to support legit snow threats. January 2016 was the same and that was mid season. I distinctly remember a perfect coastal track storm but it was too warm. My area mixed with slush bombs when the precip was heavy but that's it. The boundary layer was torched still. It took a week or so and a few rain storms before we got a real threat. So even in mid winter if the airmass is warm when blocking develops it takes a while. Unfortunately typically that's the case as when we get blocking it's often the result of the PV being bombarded by waves and like this case both a retrograding ridge and a Conus ridge combine to displace and weaken the PV and create high lat blocking. But the Conus ridge also scours out all the cold too so we start the new pattern with an awful airmass in place.  

Im also not concerned about needing a "perfect" pattern. This isn't a Nina. There is no glaring flaw we have to overcome this year. Remember the years where it just seemed to want to snow? A cow in Ohio would fart and we would get snow.  My gut says this is one of those years.  The pattern the last few weeks has been decent but ambiguous in most ways. Far from perfect. Yet we have had numerous coastal systems that in winter would have been a snowfall event and one actual snowfall out of an only half decent pattern in NOVEMBER!  I feel that even if we only have a decent h5 pattern at times this is a year that can work.  

Don't think it will take as much to flip the air mass in the CONUS this year though. Much better snow cover farther south in Canada then what we typically see at this time of year so we have deeper cold extending farther south which will be easier to tap into. So we may not necessarily have to do a multiple step down to achieve the cold we need.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Don't think it will take as much to flip the air mass in the CONUS this year though. Much better snow cover farther south in Canada then what we typically see at this time of year so we have deeper cold extending farther south which will be easier to tap into. So we may not necessarily have to do a multiple step down to achieve the cold we need.

Maybe not but I doubt that first storm day 7-8 has much of a chance. After that it might be game on. 

[smokeybandit]

Doesn't appear TT has survived its planned server maintenance.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, smokeybandit said:

Doesn't appear TT has survived its planned server maintenance.

Yep, times like this make you really appreciate how good TT is for a free model site. NCEP site sucks. Pivotal is ok but not nearly as good as TT on mobile devices. 

@psuhoffman 

I totally agree with you about how atl blocking doesn't mean cold here. Usually avoids a torch but we've had many atl blocking periods that are just normal temps. Normal won't work until mid/late Dec. We'll need the EPO ridge to flex to get cold enough air. Pna ridge could do it but not as good as the epo. 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Yep, times like this make you really appreciate how good TT is for a free model site. NCEP site sucks. Pivotal is ok but not nearly as good as TT on mobile devices. 

@psuhoffman 

I totally agree with you about how atl blocking doesn't mean cold here. Usually avoids a torch but we've had many atl blocking periods that are just normal temps. Normal won't work until mid/late Dec. We'll need the EPO ridge to flex to get cold enough air. Pna ridge could do it but not as good as the epo. 

The -AO has the strongest correlation to cold and snow in our region, and since the AO/NAO are closely related, when we have a persistent -AO, we often end up with NA blocking as well. That is a tough combo to beat, assuming the PAC isn't totally hostile lol. But yeah, as we have seen in some recent winters, especially when the AO is not as friendly, a persistent and stout EPO ridge can deliver big time.

[CAPE]

12z Euro even colder for Thanksgiving morning. Highs still don't get out of the 20s for most of the area.

 

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

It's not a Strong El Nino, Euro has a storm at 168 and 240. snow-snow (or frozen)

[psuhoffman]

Sorry I was looking at the gfs not the euro lol.  But euro is a good run too.  Implies by day 10 it gets cold. Gfs is a good run. Cutter day 8-9 sets the table. Day 10 the whole Conus is COLD and the next system getting organized in the gulf. 

Euro and gfs agree that after the day 8-9 storm it gets cold enough that some real threats should show up after. 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Op euro is a good run. Cutter day 8-9 sets the table. Day 10 the whole Conus is COLD and the next system getting organized in the gulf. 

Yeah we will have to endure the rain-rain(non-frozen), but after that it should be interesting.

[showmethesnow]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Sorry I was looking at the gfs not the euro lol.  But euro is a good run too.  Implies by day 10 it gets cold. Gfs is a good run. Cutter day 8-9 sets the table. Day 10 the whole Conus is COLD and the next system getting organized in the gulf. 

Euro and gfs agree that after the day 8-9 storm it gets cold enough that some real threats should show up after. 

Not that it means much but the GEFs snowfall mean in the longer range has been starting to bump up in the last couple of runs.

[SnowGolfBro]

22 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Not that it means much but the GEFs snowfall mean in the longer range has been starting to bump up in the last couple of runs.

If we can start getting digital snow in mid November that’s a good sign especially after we scored a minor event already

[frd]

16 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Not that it means much but the GEFs snowfall mean in the longer range has been starting to bump up in the last couple of runs.

I almost think that using snow cover to our North this year over Eastern Canada ( above normal ) puts us in snow climo maybe two weeks earlier than normal. 

Related to a degree, the direct discharge of arctic air on Turkey Day is so cold partly because of its path, but also because of the vast and deep snow cover over SE Canada.  

May also see very strong High pressure systems set up winter to our NW because of this, and similar episodes of deep CAD that the models may under forecast at range. Like the last event. 

So a positive for over running events. 

Some seasonal models depict coastal tracks but some also look like SW to ENE over running systems that surprisingly seem not to make it above Philly to NY City line.. Maybe NAO induced block related, although I am sure there will be some Miller A systems. 

[frd]

I think this is new possibly from two days ago. Not sure. 

 

 

 

[frd]

Keeping the SPV under control , should continue the background of a -AO in December hopefuly. 

 

 

[frd]

This is really impressive and to think this look may linger too , and or re-appear in December after a minor relaxation, or maybe no relaxation. 

I read HM stating that all systems are a go with this -NAO and a very convoluted Atlantic in time.