November/December Medium/Long Range Disco

[yoda]

12z GFS has a large 1038-1040 HP in NY at 201... i think we will see suppression on this run

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

It’s still a nice vort pass. I wouldn’t discount it yet at all.

Yeah it feels like one of those things that'll pop back up at the last minute...perhaps we only see it in the 3 day range (or less) if it's gonna do something?

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z CMC has the Dec 8-10 storm... but its too warm.  But its there and the track looks decent anyway

Cmc is doing a weird follow up wave/coastal. The storm in focus is a slider solution. Which is totally fine for now.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z CMC has the Dec 8-10 storm... but its too warm.  But its there and the track looks decent anyway

Seems like it has a more wonky evolution altogether there, lol

 

[Scud]

9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well the 5th looks dead on the GFS.  So....,

Let's give the super computers a little more time....

[stormtracker]

GFS is about to screw us with a slider.  But hey..180+ hours.   Just glad we got something to track finally.  

[NorthArlington101]

Still coming north at 222. 

[Snowchaser]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Seems like it has a more wonky evolution altogether there, lol

 

12z GFS on the top 198h

12z CMC on the bottom 198h

GFS looks good imo

 

 

[Scud]

Just now, stormtracker said:

GFS is about to screw us with a slider.  But hey..180+ hours.   Just glad we got something to track finally.  

And everyone said Amen

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS is about to screw us with a slider.  But hey..180+ hours.   Just glad we got something to track finally.  

I may have spoken too soon.  

[WxUSAF]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I may have spoken too soon.  

Yeah, GFS is a hit. Ignore the bad thermal profiles. But it’s sort of a wonky 500 evolution. Still more panels to see, but the main southern shortwave sort of gets consumed by this bigger northern wave?

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I may have spoken too soon.  

*flag* False start, Beethoven, two post penalty, repeat report of model run

[Scud]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I may have spoken too soon.  

You did. But you have the puppies....

[yoda]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Yeah, GFS is a hit. Ignore the bad thermal profiles. But it’s sort of a wonky 500 evolution. Still more panels to see, but the main southern shortwave sort of gets consumed by this bigger northern wave?

its track is over the Delmarva though

[Snowchaser]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I may have spoken too soon.  

12z GFS is way to warm.

still lots of positives to take from this run

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

its track is over the Delmarva though

 

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah, GFS is a hit. Ignore the bad thermal profiles. But it’s sort of a wonky 500 evolution. Still more panels to see, but the main southern shortwave sort of gets consumed by this bigger northern wave?

 

[mattie g]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I may have spoken too soon.  

Terrible poster. Who is this joker?

[Scud]

50 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I may have spoken too soon.  

I get it. You are the composer of all the great thoughts of the Mind. 

[WxUSAF]

6 minutes ago, yoda said:

its track is over the Delmarva though

Was more speaking about a panel or two before that. But yes would turn to rain with that track. But the 500 evolution is sort of funky. Euro  has nothing like that. Nor does FV3 really.

[psuhoffman]

21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Cmc is doing a weird follow up wave/coastal. The storm in focus is a slider solution. Which is totally fine for now.

 

11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah, GFS is a hit. Ignore the bad thermal profiles. But it’s sort of a wonky 500 evolution. Still more panels to see, but the main southern shortwave sort of gets consumed by this bigger northern wave?

Obviously the whole evolution could change since we are still at really long range here but right now most of the guidance is suggesting that kind of interaction.  The initial stj wave is way out ahead of the upper level support diving into the trough from the northern stream.  Given the flow, if that stj system is on its own and doesn't interact at all its likely to be a southern slider.  But...most of the guidance is now suggesting some sort of convoluted interaction where perhaps there is a front runner that escapes then a second piece partially phases.   I guess the interaction is good because without it that southern system is likely squashed but it introduces possible temperature problems if the track isnt perfect given the prolonged southerly flow as the upper level trough approaches.  

[dallen7908]

Man that H is in a hurry to move out; 1035H north of Bermuda as precipitation reaches DC; 

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

Obviously the whole evolution could change since we are still at really long range here but right now most of the guidance is suggesting that kind of interaction.  The initial stj wave is way out ahead of the upper level support diving into the trough from the northern stream.  Given the flow, if that stj system is on its own and doesn't interact at all its likely to be a southern slider.  But...most of the guidance is now suggesting some sort of convoluted interaction where perhaps there is a front runner that escapes then a second piece partially phases.   I guess the interaction is good because without it that southern system is likely squashed but it introduces possible temperature problems if the track isnt perfect given the prolonged southerly flow as the upper level trough approaches.  

So...what would we need to see to get a "perfect" track?...HP in a particular place? Timing? (Sounds like a rollercoaster week ahead if we're talking about that kind of evolution!)

[SnowGolfBro]

I think the players are starting to show up on the guidance.  It will be interesting over the coming days to see if they can come together just right for us. Get the low to track up the coast and the high to hang on to our N

[Bob Chill]

9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So...what would we need to see to get a "perfect" track?...HP in a particular place? Timing? (Sounds like a rollercoaster week ahead if we're talking about that kind of evolution!)

There's really nothing specific to track yet. Too far away in time. If you look at the ens guidance the solutions are still all over the place. Each ens and op solution is equal odds. We're still prob 5 days away from narrowing down highs/lows/evolution enough to discuss specific placements of features. Right now we could get all rain, all snow, both, or none. Nobody can give any specifics as to which one is more right than wrong yet. 

[stormtracker]

37 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Terrible poster. Who is this joker?

He's pretty bad.  I'd steer clear of his posts.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

57 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah, GFS is a hit. Ignore the bad thermal profiles. But it’s sort of a wonky 500 evolution. Still more panels to see, but the main southern shortwave sort of gets consumed by this bigger northern wave?

Ways out there but the warmish thermals have some credibility as we now have more of a tucked look on many pieces of guidance and this early with a warmish ocean still a tucked low probably wont cut it for i95 but this is all cloud talk as there is quite a ways to go. But this is the reason we are going to need NAO ridging this year. In many Nino patterns the tendency is cut or tucked. Without the nao ridging what we saw on the cmc, and the gfs family makes perfect sense. But again plenty of time and at least we have something to track again this early in the season.

[Ralph Wiggum]

32 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So...what would we need to see to get a "perfect" track?...HP in a particular place? Timing? (Sounds like a rollercoaster week ahead if we're talking about that kind of evolution!)

NAO ridging timed properly to lock in hp

[psuhoffman]

29 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So...what would we need to see to get a "perfect" track?...HP in a particular place? Timing? (Sounds like a rollercoaster week ahead if we're talking about that kind of evolution!)

Bob is 100% right, this could still evolve into several different scenarios.  Way too early to say.  But how COULD this work for us?  Well the easiest thing to root for would be a stronger more consolidated initial system that can get the job done while the cold source is still there.  Even then we would need a good track and high and all that jazz but getting a big slug of gulf moisture thrown at us with cold in place is a pretty simple way to score around here.  If things remain kind of disconnected between the initial stj system and the upper level trough then we need the h5 track to be good and the secondary low to form in the right spot and track up the coast not inland.  Get the h5 low over us and we will be ok in that scenario...but have it stall out to our west like the 12z GFS and GGEM show and we will have temperature problems even with a good surface track from a prolonged southerly flow at mid levels.  Those are the 2 simplest ways to get er done so to speak...  

[WinterWxLuvr]

New GFS is a big storm and a hit, but isn't out far enough to convince me it doesn't cut west of us.

[psuhoffman]

Just so no one confuses my discussions I am not making any predictions and even the options are far fetched at this range...I just like analysis and discussing the possibilities...but there is no way to even guess at details at this range.  Everything is on the table right now.