yoda Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 00z GFS is an E WV to I-81 special... Blue Ridge and west get snowstorm... I-95 corridor so-so until you get near BWI... C MD does well This is for the Dec 8-10 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 This is probably more realistic than TT snowmap... this is the IWM snowmap... white/blue shading is 3" line... light pink is 6" line... yellow is 12" zone... orange to the dark red is 18"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 10 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z GFS is an E WV to I-81 special... Blue Ridge and west get snowstorm... I-95 corridor so-so until you get near BWI... C MD does well This is for the Dec 8-10 storm Track is ideal. 850s are ok. Gfs has been running warm in the lower levels so I wouldn't worry about it. Was a great run imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 29 minutes ago, yoda said: This is probably more realistic than TT snowmap... this is the IWM snowmap... white/blue shading is 3" line... light pink is 6" line... yellow is 12" zone... orange to the dark red is 18"+ Forgive me, but...why do we even start talking about totals and snow maps for something in the day 8+ range? I mean...I know this is the medium/long range thread but...just seems way premature... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 That is a weird looking pattern on the December 9th storm. The only Analog I can think of is the PDII. Maybe something in February 1998 looks close at 500mb, but none of those were snow for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Forgive me, but...why do we even start talking about totals and snow maps for something in the day 8+ range? I mean...I know this is the medium/long range thread but...just seems way premature... I don't think yoda is expecting it to verify. It's just for the sake of evaluating if it's a good run imo. Why not? It's just for fun. You're right it doesn't add much value to a forecast at this range but I don't see the harm in discussing what the run shows for fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Forgive me, but...why do we even start talking about totals and snow maps for something in the day 8+ range? I mean...I know this is the medium/long range thread but...just seems way premature... You see the TT map posted above? Most times the TT maps are overdone with the snow amounts and they are often posted... just figured to show another one that is more likely to be correct with snowfall totals if this run came to fruition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 @yoda take a look at the fv3. Track is inside the gfs...but still is a great front end snow before a flip along 95 because it's colder. It's been doing better with thermals. If the track were like the gfs it probably would be all or mostly snow. Of course a track difference of 50-100 miles is nothing at day 8 so this is all a bit silly just pointing out I think the gfs is likely to run too warm and so I would worry about the key features more than the exact temps and snow output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Both gfs ops look great but the 0z gefs shifted notably towards a southern slider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 11 hours ago, mappy said: sorry. women really cant say we have a pants tent... my way of describing excitement would not be suitable for this thread. It has been a tit nippy here lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 11 hours ago, mappy said: hahahaha i think that would be even worse. 234hr panel looks amazingly wet and moist and... Juicy. Just like the turkey i master basted last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 11 hours ago, WxUSAF said: @ravensrule please report to the long range thread. @ravensrule to the long range thread. I go out of town on a work trip and i miss all the excitement. The one time i can actually add valuable content I let everyone down. Please forgive me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 00z: d5 system is now religated to a slight risk SW- with vortmax passage. Surface low never phases except on GFS with 1 inch potential mainly south of BWI. Day 9 system, the good news is the Euro is not sending surface low to Pittsburgh. Looks alot like FV3 with significant snows along, and north and west of I-95 corridor. For your viewing pleasure the d5 depiction and snowfall liguid equalant map in mm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Track is ideal. 850s are ok. Gfs has been running warm in the lower levels so I wouldn't worry about it. Was a great run imo. Look at that, ensembles trend toward GOA Low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 1 hour ago, Scud said: 00z: d5 system is now regulated to a slight risk SW- with vortmax passage. Surface low never phases except on GFS with 1 inch potential mainly south of BWI. Day 9 system, the good news is the Euro is not sending surface low to Pittsburgh. Looks alot like FV3 with significant snows along, and north and west of I-95 corridor. For your viewing pleasure the d5 depiction and liguid equalant map in mm. Snowcover is moving south steadily > models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 6z wants to keep some type of AK ridging around most of the run. That helps the Pac side a ton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Why are we Discussing exact placement of 850 0c lines, rain snow lines, etc 8+ days out? Let’s focus on the teleconnections, the placement of the jet stream, blocking and snow cover in eastern Canada etc. The finer details will come into sight as we get closer. At this point, a storm being in the area is looking likely. But let’s not bite too early. It’s still possible the storm hits the interior northeast, or the opposite, it slides to our south. The setup is iffy and I’d like to see this improve at h5 850 700 before getting excited. Until then, it’s looking more likely that a snowstorm hits for Hoffman and company with snow to a change over for the 95 corridor than a significant area wide snow event. That being said... we’ve got a long way to go and the potential is still absolutely there for the entire Baltimore DC corridor to see appreciable snow. By the way.. thanks for having me everyone. Love this board. After I received my meteorology degree, I ended up changing careers and work for Apple. However, it’s great to have a place to channel my inner weather geek! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 10 minutes ago, jayyy said: Why are we Discussing exact placement of 85 0c lines, rain snow lines, etc 8+ days out? Let’s focus on the teleconnections, the placement of the jet stream, blocking and snow cover in eastern Canada etc. The finer details will come into sight as we get closer. At this point, a storm being in the area is looking likely. But let’s not bite too early. It’s still possible the storm hits the interior northeast, or the opposite, it slides to our south. The setup is iffy and I’d like to see this improve at h5 850 700 before getting excited. Until then, it’s looking more likely that a snowstorm hits for Hoffman and company with snow to a change over for the 95 corridor than a significant area wide snow event. That being said... we’ve got a long way to go and the potential is still absolutely there for the entire Baltimore DC corridor to see appreciable snow. By the way.. thanks for having me everyone. Love this board. After I received my meteorology degree, I ended up changing careers and work for Apple. However, it’s great to have a place to channel my inner weather geek! Because its fun. 850mb isotherms represent forecast thickness of cold air and the enevitable warm nose. That said. We were given permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 7 minutes ago, jayyy said: Why are we Discussing exact placement of 850 0c lines, rain snow lines, etc 8+ days out? Let’s focus on the teleconnections, the placement of the jet stream, blocking and snow cover in eastern Canada etc. The finer details will come into sight as we get closer. At this point, a storm being in the area is looking likely. But let’s not bite too early. It’s still possible the storm hits the interior northeast, or the opposite, it slides to our south. The setup is iffy and I’d like to see this improve at h5 850 700 before getting excited. Until then, it’s looking more likely that a snowstorm hits for Hoffman and company with snow to a change over for the 95 corridor than a significant area wide snow event. That being said... we’ve got a long way to go and the potential is still absolutely there for the entire Baltimore DC corridor to see appreciable snow. By the way.. thanks for having me everyone. Love this board. After I received my meteorology degree, I ended up changing careers and work for Apple. However, it’s great to have a place to channel my inner weather geek! Well said. The FV3 and GFS Classic are quite different for 6z. op run so no biggie but I did notice the H is offshore which allows the storm to move more west hence the change over but still think 95 corridor could see a few inches before that happens. lots of time to watch it and seeing suppressed solutions still gives me hope there is a middle ground. not bad to be tracking in early Dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 6 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Both gfs ops look great but the 0z gefs shifted notably towards a southern slider. Sure did. Then the 6z GEFS shifted notably towards southern Florida, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Sure did. Then the 6z GEFS shifted notably towards southern Florida, lol. its going to be quite a week trying to will this thing north, south, east, west...another tick, stopping the ticks, preserving the sweet spot...we are all in now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 39 minutes ago, H2O said: 6z wants to keep some type of AK ridging around most of the run. That helps the Pac side a ton Give it a few more runs and there will be an Aleutian low and a developing -EPO on all the guidance for mid Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 I know I read here that a puppy dies every time a 384 hour surface map gets posted, but what happens when a 200+ hour snowfall clown map or 850-line map gets posted? Please tell me the consequential sacrifice isn't as severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I know I read here that a puppy dies every time a 384 hour surface map gets posted, but what happens when a 200+ hour snowfall clown map or 850-line map gets posted? Please tell me the consequential sacrifice isn't as severe. Yeah there is another thread for digital snow clown maps for day 10 "threats". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 34 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Sure did. Then the 6z GEFS shifted notably towards southern Florida, lol. Was never really too high on this Tues/Wed possible storm for the DC/Balt region. Setup argued for a suppressed and progressive system more then anything else with possibly a narrow swath of snow on the northern edge somewhere in the southern portions of the mid-Atlantic. That said, some of the improvements I have seen at 500 the last couple of days says maybe not to give up on it just quite yet for up in our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I know I read here that a puppy dies every time a 384 hour surface map gets posted, but what happens when a 200+ hour snowfall clown map or 850-line map gets posted? Please tell me the consequential sacrifice isn't as severe. the puppy sacrifice is for anything over 240hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Was never really too high on this Tues/Wed possible storm for the DC/Balt region. Setup argued for a suppressed and progressive system more then anything else with possibly a narrow swath of snow on the northern edge somewhere in the southern portions of the mid-Atlantic. That said, some of the improvements I have seen at 500 the last couple of days says maybe not to give up on it just quite yet for up in our region. I was actually referring to the Dec 9-10 potential event. The midweek deal is going to be conversational at best as it looks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah there is another thread for digital snow clown maps for day 10 "threats". Hey CAPE any idea what he means here> the monthly ? You think he means the weeklies from last night ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 30, 2018 Author Share Posted November 30, 2018 The troubling part of the second threat on the gfs, for me, is that the storm seems to be disappearing from some of the ens members. I liked that it was pretty much on all of them a couple of days ago. This is the time though that I think at least in the past where models can sometimes kind of lose a storm for a day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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