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November/December Medium/Long Range Disco

WinterWxLuvr

By WinterWxLuvr,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, yoda said:

Yup... 1-3 is nice to see

Not somuch what it shows verbatim QPF wise but the track/transfer happens entirely to our south. That's a pretty good solution. It's not all that cold leading in so any slp track that approaches to our west pretty much kills any chance at snow. I don't trust the solution but it shows how it can work here. 

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This relates to the nino discussion. No idea who beccalynch4 on twitter is but she seems to be the source of 90% of the "it's not a modoki" talk and from her posts she doesn't seem to have any idea what she is talking about. I posted a retort to as many of her posts as I could but she is flooding twitter with repetitive crap in every thread about the nino status. Not sure what her agenda is but she obviously has one. 

It was actually her tweets that prompted my question yesterday, lol Yeah I'm not sure what her angle is...I mean I asked her point blank whether she was a snow lover or a snow loather...she said "neither" and that she was tired of hype forecasting, basically--But, if that's the case, she goes about it in a rather obnoxious way...bent on "proving hypers wrong", and not much info in between (for example: a few months ago she was claiming there wasn't gonna be any el Niño and that it was gonna fizzle...lol)

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SomeguyfromTakomaPark

SomeguyfromTakomaPark

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Not somuch what it shows verbatim QPF wise but the track/transfer happens entirely to our south. That's a pretty good solution. It's not all that cold leading in so any slp track that approaches to our west pretty much kills any chance at snow. I don't trust the solution but it shows how it can work here. 

Very nice run.  Let's keep the trend going. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Thanks psu...reading her twitter feed was like nails down a chalkboard.  She certainly thinks highly of herself and likes to play twitter police with everyone else. 

I was curious about the "debate" going on and she pops up everywhere is you search modoki nino. And it's the same post over and over. She is playing word games.  Using one definition when others are using another then implying they don't know what their talking about. I hate that crap. 

I'll say this...we don't want the nino to continue to shift east. That's not a good thing. But every nino event expands to cover the basin at its peak. Often modoki then contract back west. Sometimes they don't. If this continue to evolve east that wouldn't be as favorable to us. But it still wouldn't make this a classic east based nino or as problematic as the typical strong east based ninos like 83,98, and 2016 to our temps. 

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I was curious about the "debate" going on and she pops up everywhere is you search modoki nino. And it's the same post over and over. She is playing word games.  Using one definition when others are using another then implying they don't know what their talking about. I hate that crap. 

I'll say this...we don't want the nino to continue to shift east. That's not a good thing. But every nino event expands to cover the basin at its peak. Often modoki then contract back west. Sometimes they don't. If this continue to evolve east that wouldn't be as favorable to us. But it still wouldn't make this a classic east based nino or as problematic as the typical strong east based ninos like 83,98, and 2016 to our temps. 

As always--thank you for bringing some clarity to this!

P.S. Is it shifting east currently?

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It was actually her tweets that prompted my question yesterday, lol Yeah I'm not sure what her angle is...I mean I asked her point blank whether she was a snow lover or a snow loather...she said "neither" and that she was tired of hype forecasting, basically--But, if that's the case, she goes about it in a rather obnoxious way...bent on "proving hypers wrong", and not much info in between (for example: a few months ago she was claiming there wasn't gonna be any el Niño and that it was gonna fizzle...lol)

Yea I determined she has an agenda. Might just be to anti hype. Or prove her own predictions. I don't know. 

Burried in her nonsense is a legitimate argument that if this enso event continues to propagate east that it could become less favorable to snow here. But she is articulating that all wrong and misunderstanding some concepts. There is also no concrete evidence that will happen.  Models indicate it remains central based and some think it's eventually wanes back west towards spring.  I've seen no compelling evidence this is becoming an east based event. A short temp warm pulse doesn't necessarily spell doom. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, yoda said:

FWIW, 12z GGEM is a southern slider (TN/NC/S VA) for Dec 8-9

GFS is going that way too. I'd much prefer that in the long range versus worrying about a cut to the west or phased rainer. We're still in shotgun spread mode so I'm not overthinking anything. The 10k foot view is a pure southern stream shortwave is going to traverse the country into the deep south. That's on all guidance. Where it goes from there won't be known for probably 5 days

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
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Posted
Just now, Bob Chill said:

GFS is going that way too. I'd much prefer that in the long range versus worrying about a cut to the west or phased rainer. We're still in shotgun spread mode so I'm not overthinking anything. The 10k foot view is a pure southern stream shortwave is going to traverse the country into the deep south. That's on all guidance. Where it goes from there won't be known for probably 5 days

Amen.  I really like where we stand with this right now.

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Only thing I'll take from the gem is that it finally sees the threat at least. 

Yes.  When something is showing up consistently on all the models it's easy to believe it's going to happen.  Now we need the finer details to go our way.

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted
Just now, Scud said:

GFS few SW- with mid level energy d5. D10 storm is no longer heading toward Deluth MN. Hearing towards Hatteras. Rather be on the north side in November.

terrible model lol....in one run when from a Midwest Monster to a southern slider smh

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

The MJO ensembles have weakened considerably unfortunately.

Ehh that might not be a bad thing in the long run. There are other pattern drivers lined up in our favor this year so simply getting the mjo out of the way doesn't mean doom and gloom. What we don't want are long strong slow waves propagating the warm phases. The sst argues against that. If the waves are muted overall that might be fine also. 

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ehh that might not be a bad thing in the long run. There are other pattern drivers lined up in our favor this year so simply getting the mjo out of the way doesn't mean doom and gloom. What we don't want are long strong slow waves propagating the warm phases. The sst argues against that. If the waves are muted overall that might be fine also. 

There has been a lot of change and variability with the cycling as posted by @griteater

He has an awesome post in the long range in the SE forum. 

 

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

FV3 is the perfect track/evolution for the d9-10 deal. I'll be hugging the 12z run unless the euro ups the ante. 

Yeah that’s nice. GEFS totally followed the op for both chances so that sucks. And here I thought they looked more dispersive so far this year...

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