November/December Medium/Long Range Disco

[Ralph Wiggum]

54 minutes ago, luckyamaha said:

6z GFS is a no go. Why bother with it at this point since the New FV3 will take precedence come mid January


Sent from my moto z3 using Tapatalk
 

Precisely! Only if it shows what we want should we bother looking at it.

[Scraff]

FWIW—If anyone follows Bernie Rayno on Twitter, he’s not hyping, but does feel pretty good about next Tuesday / Wednesday for the outlined area.  Just watch his Periscope if you have a sec. Gist of it, thinks it’s a sneaky storm. Don’t look past it. Said he could see how someone could get a 3-6” type deal. 

[Wonderdog]

59 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Pretty clear what Chill mentioned yesterday in FV3 0z to 6z...for 9 Dec.  that low on 6z draws it north.  Suppressed on 0z pressed south like a canned ham

FV3 has another storm hugging the coast on Dec 11/12 that doesn't make it up to us but it's close on 6z. I didn't like the old GFS showing the cutter on the 10th though. I didn't see the 0z run until just now. Now I would take that and run with it.

[psuhoffman]

37 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

FV3 has another storm hugging the coast on Dec 11/12 that doesn't make it up to us but it's close on 6z. I didn't like the old GFS showing the cutter on the 10th though. I didn't see the 0z run until just now. Now I would take that and run with it.

Hopefully in reality that "next" storm ends up phased with the frontrunner and it's just one storm. That's the way to get a big solution. Initial wave comes through then upper energy dives in and phases. There are some ensembles that have been doing that the last few runs and blowing up a huge long duration mid Atlantic storm. It's a long shot but we can dream. 

[WhiteoutMD]

Can someone remind me what the control run is again? Thanks


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[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Precisely! Only if it shows what we want should we bother looking at it.

Joking aside purely from my casual observation the Fv3 is better. It's still not perfect, nothing is at range, but when the gfs and fv3 have been divergent the fv3 seems to win more often. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said:

Can someone remind me what the control run is again? Thanks


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An unperturbed lower resolution (run at the resolution of the ensemble members) run of the operational model. 

The rest of the ensembles are perturbed (fed slightly different input to simulate divergent results).

[midatlanticweather]

Does anyone even look at the other Euro runs? I only hear of the main runs still? Just curious - maybe wrong forum, but wondering what the latetest Euro says verses the overnight

 

[frd]

Continuing the theme, colder, warming delayed and or muted.  Maybe looking ahead beyond this is a shorter period of moderation.  I think any strat impact is still not going to show it's hands yet in the models for later December. 

Of note as well are the solar winds that HM talked about last night.  2009 was such an anomaly. But, I see we are trending down nicely the last 12 months. 

 

 

 

 

[frd]

If anything December will be interesting to see what transpires up North .  Seems the wave 2 activity is forecasted to increase.  

 

[poolz1]

28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Joking aside purely from my casual observation the Fv3 is better. It's still not perfect, nothing is at range, but when the gfs and fv3 have been divergent the fv3 seems to win more often. 

Just an observation....I actually kept an eye on the FV3 leading up to the most recent storm in Chicago to see how it performed as far as track goes.  It really seemed to run lockstep with the Euro with further N track putting Chi in the warm sector.  Regular GFS was flatter...what we would typically expect to see from both models.  Eventually,  the tracks merged and Chicago go nailed.  Certainly not anything scientific just a casual observation.      

[frd]

6 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Just an observation....I actually kept an eye on the FV3 leading up to the most recent storm in Chicago to see how it performed as far as track goes.  It really seemed to run lockstep with the Euro with further N track putting Chi in the warm sector.  Regular GFS was flatter...what we would typically expect to see from both models.  Eventually,  the tracks merged and Chicago go nailed.  Certainly not anything scientific just a casual observation.      

I thought I read from Ryan Maue that at times the FV3 was at times neck and neck with the Euro op in verification scoring. Whether that was over a short period of time or in a certain background state, not sure.

It seems at the minimum it is better than the GFS, I also think @WxUSAF might have commented on it as well that it is somewhat better. 

[poolz1]

GEFS have def been picking up on a renewed warming in the strat.  The past few runs have been increasing warming in the LR...you can see the progression below with the D7 current warming, D13 cooling and then D16 renewed warming at 10mb.

[snowmagnet]

How does the warming of the stratosphere affect us?  My limited understanding is that it can cause upheaval in the weather patterns, but I'm sure there is more to it.  

[frd]

4 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

GEFS have def been picking up on a renewed warming in the strat.  The past few runs have been increasing warming in the LR...you can see the progression below with the D7 current warming, D13 cooling and then D16 renewed warming at 10mb.

Seems the background state supports this and and the GEFS has been doing well.

If anything, as I posted in previous days, it appears that these warming events are growing in depth and duration, the closer we get to the present, at least so far that seems to be case.  

[psuhoffman]

40 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Does anyone even look at the other Euro runs? I only hear of the main runs still? Just curious - maybe wrong forum, but wondering what the latetest Euro says verses the overnight

 

The off hour runs only go out to 120 so in this case they aren't in range yet.  I'm just not used to having to go look at them either. Not part of the regular routine yet. But I am sure once legit threats pop up inside range people will start using them. No way weenies will just ignore anything. Well except the SREFs and that took over a decade to finally get people to stop bothering with that crap. 

[poolz1]

Just now, frd said:

Seems the background state supports this and and the GEFS has been doing well.

If anything, as I posted in previous days, it appears that these warming events are growing in depth and duration, the closer we get to the present, at least so far that seems to be case.  

It does seem like the gefs has been pretty good at picking these event up...I am certainly new to this strat stuff and learning a bit more every season.  Your posts certainly help...

[Kmlwx]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

The off hour runs only go out to 120 so in this case they aren't in range yet.  I'm just not used to having to go look at them either. Not part of the regular routine yet. But I am sure once legit threats pop up inside range people will start using them. No way weenies will just ignore anything. Well except the SREFs and that took over a decade to finally get people to stop bothering with that crap. 

Yoda will still post them but preceded by "FWIW" or "we take" 

[clskinsfan]

I am actually pretty happy about the look for early Dec on the Euro. Back to back vorts tracking under us. Still a long ways off obviously. But at least we have something to watch.

[psuhoffman]

Can we add day 10+ stat warm talk to the "kills puppies" list???

jokes aside yea the strat is important and it's worth discussing but we have very low predictive ability beyond a week, and the results of how each strat event effects the troposphere and then how that translates to the longwave pattern in a meaningful way to us is wildly unpredictable. Some strat warms do nothing for us. 

I think what is important is that the PV continues to take an absolute beating. It can't get its act together. If that continues it's a good thing. And a strat warm could help too.  There are some hints maybe....

[frd]

If this causes a PV displacement looking here it would seem the worse impact is in Eurasia.  But also the Extreme Eastern part of North America.

Not sure the outcome, @psuhoffman had nicely stated a few days ago,  the impact areas of these events change.  

Sometimes Europe gets it, Cold and snow, sometimes we do, many times Siberia does.

I also read the splits / SSWE although rare seem to impact Eurasia the worse, while displacements effect us more. 

This seems like a displacemernt to me, yet the coldest anomalies seem to target and deepen over Eurasia. and the other side of the globe but we still get some effect here too.   

When a reader posted that question to Judah, he felt here in NA the impact might be a Jet stream far to the South with Wintery potential in December, but even Judah was not sure.       

 

 

20 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

GEFS have def been picking up on a renewed warming in the strat.  The past few runs have been increasing warming in the LR...you can see the progression below with the D7 current warming, D13 cooling and then D16 renewed warming at 10mb.

 

[Chris78]

GEFS looks pretty unanimous for the day 9/10 thing as a coastal.  Doesn't support the Ohio valley track whatsoever that the OP shows.

[Bob Chill]

Ens are backing off on the depth of the "potential" crap pac pattern down the line. Scand ridge poking into GL now showing on GEFS/GEPS/EPS and the AK vortex is slowly shifting towards more of a trough and further west than previous runs. Still not a great look but a bit better already compared to the more dire recent runs. 

[WxUSAF]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Ens are backing off on the depth of the "potential" crap pac pattern down the line. Scand ridge poking into GL now showing on GEFS/GEPS/EPS and the AK vortex is slowly shifting towards more of a trough and further west than previous runs. Still not a great look but a bit better already compared to the more dire recent runs. 

Yup. Haven’t seen the long range EPS, but GEFS looks more like a -PNA and neutral to weakly positive AO. Bad pattern, but not a total toaster bath, and one that more easily reverts to a good one for us.

[frd]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Ens are backing off on the depth of the "potential" crap pac pattern down the line. Scand ridge poking into GL now showing on GEFS/GEPS/EPS and the AK vortex is slowly shifting towards more of a trough and further west than previous runs. Still not a great look but a bit better already compared to the more dire recent runs. 

@Isotherm Tom's recent update was inspiring that the relax interval will not be as bad as modeled. The last 24 to 48 hours seems to lend him support on that front .

[Bob Chill]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Yup. Haven’t seen the long range EPS, but GEFS looks more like a -PNA and neutral to weakly positive AO. Bad pattern, but not a total toaster bath, and one that more easily reverts to a good one for us.

EPS still looks pretty ugly but shifted the AK trough a little further west and not tucked so close to the coast. Starting to see a slight kink in the isobars along the west coast of Canada. If that trend keeps up NA will be spared from a complete onslaught of pac air. Get some help from the Atl and it could very well be just a run of the mill relaxation that we're hoping for. 

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, frd said:

@Isotherm Tom's recent update was inspiring that the relax interval will not be as bad as modeled. The last 24 to 48 hours seems to lend him support on that front .

There's been a theme last 3-4 years or so where pattern flips (good or bad) in the long range wash out or never even materialize. We thought winter was over multiple times in 2013-14 but it kept on coming. 2014-15 was the opposite where a good pattern kept getting pushed back until it finally came in Feb. When the flip to a +EPO first showed up it was pretty drastic and now it's getting tuned down as time rolls forward. Would not be surprised at all if the worst of it never materializes and the -AO and/or NAO comes back nicely by mid Dec. If it does then the calls for a solid winter in the east start looking pretty good imho. 

[psuhoffman]

This relates to the nino discussion. No idea who beccalynch4 on twitter is but she seems to be the source of 90% of the "it's not a modoki" talk and from her posts she doesn't seem to have any idea what she is talking about. I posted a retort to as many of her posts as I could but she is flooding twitter with repetitive crap in every thread about the nino status. Not sure what her agenda is but she obviously has one. 

[poolz1]

Thanks psu...reading her twitter feed was like nails down a chalkboard.  She certainly thinks highly of herself and likes to play twitter police with everyone else. 

[Bob Chill]

12z ICON is a perfect track/evolution for the 5th event. Best case scenario.