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November/December Medium/Long Range Disco

WinterWxLuvr

By WinterWxLuvr,
in Mid Atlantic

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted

@psuhoffman On another note....thank you for the in-depth explanation! Wow--between you and poster in another forum giving me a dissertation about whether there was any history of the blue blob and the ENSO...I've been to school today! :D

Yes...modoki truthers...certainly seem to be of those out there, lol But interestingly, I had just read something in another article yesterday about 2009/10 not really being "modoki". Now, I take it modoki is thrown around as being an automatic snow-indicator (which draws the ire of the truthers? Lol)

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poolz1

poolz1

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Nice high pressure set up to our north and northwest. Really good look. Too bad it's still 10 days out. Hopefully we still have the same look in 5 days.

ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_11.png

A pretty sweet looking panel right there....Lets get a more robust version of that at day 5 and have some fun tracking!

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

Posted
Posted

EPS control was a pretty solid look with the H5 trough progression cutting underneath, then taking on a negative tilt around our latitude. HP building over the top as the low pressure slides up the coast. This is one way y'all can score in the Day 10, but current progs show that southerly flow ahead of any storm with the retreating surface high initially will cause the thermal layer to have some issues for most of the sub-forum. The overall longwave pattern is ripe for that time frame with a pretty stout H5 closed ULL/trough entering the west coast around Day 7/8 according to the GEFS and EPS 500 hPa Mean. Interesting to note where it also enters the west with the base of the trough rolling through North-Central California. That's a good place to a wave move onshore and exit at or just south of our latitude. A little more south could work as well, but beggars can't be choosers. As many in here have mentioned, the time frame is worth watching. I'll be keeping close tabs on it as well as that system may actually affect our weather out here.  

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Scud

Scud

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I can easily see how the storm on the 5th could work in our area. Not very likely but I wouldn't be surprised if more confluence starts showing up and the track moves east over the next few days. 

Move the departing 50/50 south just 150 miles or so on this panel and it's snowing here...

gfs_z500a_namer_23.png

That's why we are calling it the 5D tease....

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Heisy

Heisy

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

EPS control was a pretty solid look with the H5 trough progression cutting underneath, then taking on a negative tilt around our latitude. HP building over the top as the low pressure slides up the coast. This is one way y'all can score in the Day 10, but current progs show that southerly flow ahead of any storm with the retreating surface high initially will cause the thermal layer to have some issues for most of the sub-forum. The overall longwave pattern is ripe for that time frame with a pretty stout H5 closed ULL/trough entering the west coast around Day 7/8 according to the GEFS and EPS 500 hPa Mean. Interesting to note where it also enters the west with the base of the trough rolling through North-Central California. That's a good place to a wave move onshore and exit at or just south of our latitude. A little more south could work as well, but beggars can't be choosers. As many in here have mentioned, the time frame is worth watching. I'll be keeping close tabs on it as well as that system may actually affect our weather out here.  

Nice post...Reminds me vaguely of the Feb 5 2010 setup..

Let me first say though that I am not saying this will turn out to be a similar end result, just noting on the similarities @ H5...Here is the 18z GFS @ 213 hours and then h5 from February 3rd 2010 (2 days before the event)....Note how similar the ULL/trough energy coming out of the Southwest is. What would be key here is to get the N stream to cooperate like it did in 2010.

* I tried posting images but I might be at my max...just going to upload them to an image host....annnd here we go

https://postimg.cc/hzjh6mTJ

78-D4-EF12-85-B8-4-C40-A68-B-90068-ADB8-

https://postimg.cc/k6pDm5vT

C0-E950-FD-A599-43-D3-9-D95-99-FC6-A7-AB

 

In 2010, that event that gave you guys a few inches of snow on feb 2-3rd was the catalyst for locking the cold in for main event. Need something similar to happen here for the DEC 8-10 POTENTIAL.

 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Not a fan of the northern stream vort on the 18z F3 with the d10 potential. I wonder if that's behind a number of ens members with a good track and mostly or all rain. Obviously it's way to far out to worry about something like that now but it's something to watch as the days go by. 

Seems like there's 3 camps with the possible storm. Southern sliders have no northern stream interaction and suppressed flow. Rainers or west tracks have northern stream influence. The good solutions either have hp over the top or a perfect track between the 2 hps with limited or no northern stream interaction. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

This panel is a good visual. The ns vort helps raise heights in front of the ss vort and screws up the mid levels. 

fv3p_z500_vort_us_40.png

And before someone comes in to tell me not to take a d10 op seriously... I'm not... Just pointing out something to keep an eye on as the whole thing evolves. Obviously there's no way in hell an op is going to nail anything in the northern stream this far out. 

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stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

This panel is a good visual. The ns vort helps raise heights in front of the ss vort and screws up the mid levels. 

fv3p_z500_vort_us_40.png

And before someone comes in to tell me not to take a d10 op seriously... I'm not... Just pointing out something to keep an eye on as the whole thing evolves. Obviously there's no way in hell an op is going to nail anything in the northern stream this far out. 

Bob.  Don’t take the 10 day prog seriously. 

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Chris78

Chris78

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

This panel is a good visual. The ns vort helps raise heights in front of the ss vort and screws up the mid levels. 

fv3p_z500_vort_us_40.png

And before someone comes in to tell me not to take a d10 op seriously... I'm not... Just pointing out something to keep an eye on as the whole thing evolves. Obviously there's no way in hell an op is going to nail anything in the northern stream this far out. 

Slow the northern stream down a bit and drop it in behind to phase  and boom ! Could be fun.

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

This panel is a good visual. The ns vort helps raise heights in front of the ss vort and screws up the mid levels. 

fv3p_z500_vort_us_40.png

And before someone comes in to tell me not to take a d10 op seriously... I'm not... Just pointing out something to keep an eye on as the whole thing evolves. Obviously there's no way in hell an op is going to nail anything in the northern stream this far out. 

After last winter, I don't even wanna see ns even TRYING to screw something up even on a d10 prog (hopefully that potential vanishes in the next several days)...that L in the north is burned into my memory, lol

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

After last winter, I don't even wanna see ns even TRYING to screw something up even on a d10 prog (hopefully that potential vanishes in the next several days)...that L in the north is burned into my memory, lol

NS cuts both ways with setups like this. Remember when I mentioned the pattern is also good for a southern slider? We may need some sort of tug from the ns to be in the game or it will miss south. These types of fine details are usually  never worked out until the med/short range. Just something to keep an eye on.

I don't get too invested on any storm until 5-6 days out at the earliest unless it's a Jan 16 type of deal. Ensembles still have large spread and any one of the solutions has equal odds. 

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Heisy

Heisy

Posted
Posted

Also, dont want to get too wound up into the Dec 8-10th event since I’m starting to feel like this 5th event has legit legs, but the issue I have with it is the timing. If the energy ejected from the SW faster it would be better, but the models right now are taking too long and we lose our cold source. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Also, dont want to get too wound up into the Dec 8-10th event since I’m starting to feel like this 5th event has legit legs, but the issue I have with it is the timing. If the energy ejected from the SW faster it would be better, but the models right now are taking too long and we lose our cold source. 

The timing on the euro looks fine. The high is in a bad spot though. One departing and one coming in behind. That might mess it up but the antecedent air mass is still plenty cold as it's approaching. 

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Scud

Scud

Posted
Posted

5d tease looks much better on Euro. General 1-3 inches of snow. 10d still there, slight westward wobble....  Ingredients fo 5d showing up nicely on NAM. Cold air heading south and east behind departing Great lakes storm. Mid level energy coming out of southern Rockies. Old frontal boundary NE Gulf. Sweet...

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_6.png

nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted

EPS snowfall maps. 1 inch line mean gets to around the MD/PA line for the Tues/Wed storm. Roughly a third show snow for portions of our region with most favoring around the Mason Dixon. The Dec 8-10 period has the 3 inch mean right around the cities with the 3 1/2 line just south of the PA line. Some nice hits in the mix for the DC/Balt region with just under half of the members getting 2+ inch through the cities. Control run is a winner with 1 1/2' + totals for the cities with 2 foot just to the south of DC. Shows a double whammy with the initial storm and then a secondary off the coast that pops up immediately afterwards from energy left behind.

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luckyamaha

luckyamaha

Posted
Posted
Probably wouldn't bother looking at the 06Z GFS. No Tuesday/Wednesday storm and it drives the Dec 8-10 storm into the lakes.
6z GFS is a no go. Why bother with it at this point since the New FV3 will take precedence come mid January


Sent from my moto z3 using Tapatalk

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