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November/December Medium/Long Range Disco

WinterWxLuvr

By WinterWxLuvr,
in Mid Atlantic

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

This year 

IMG_7813.thumb.GIF.322429317001c086faa556181ece6535.GIFIMG_7803.thumb.GIF.d3df1e6ff19c6f0337c0684d7ad161c9.GIF

 

so recently the warmth has propagated east and is centered far enough east to become somewhat ambiguous if we are just using a snapshot in time to determine enso classification. However if we factor in the way this event originated and evolved along with the strength it bears much more resemblance to the modoki type then the classic type. Again I don't care what it's called. Others can have that fight. I'm just interested in what years evolved similar to this. 

Interestingly some of the most modoki years by the "newer" more rigid definition are years that weren't so good like 1994/5 and 2004/5 so I'm not sure saying this year isn't a modoki by that definition is even a bad thing!

One other point...the Pacific is warmer all over right now and I'm not totally sure how that might impact the nino pattern. Would that warmer base state mute the enso forcing?  Not sure. But that's a different debate. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

I'm willing to bet that suppression will not be the worry.

I agree. I also think the 12z gfs showing the strong hp draped over the top is suspect as well. GEFS is similar to what the EPS showed last night with a departing high off the coast and another hp to the west. 

This looks very similar to the 0z EPS with a wave running the gauntlet:

gfs-ens_mslpa_us_42.png

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poolz1

poolz1

Posted
Posted

So many ifs with the D10 potential...but a lot of positives and potential right now...

As @WxUSAF noted...the Dec 5th potential trended much better.  FV3 has a similar idea to the CMC of after the first cutter we have several weaker waves instead of just another cutter or two.  Models are going to have a tough time separating the weaker waves and keying in on any details until probably short range time...  At least this solution would put us in the game for a light event or two...

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H2O

H2O

Posted
Posted

@psuhoffman the basin wide warmth in the Pac is the one thing that I see as possibly causing ENSO to not act as it would normally.  It basically spells out that any flow directly off the PAC will be a bad thing.  Our cold source has to originate from the arctic and if the jet can't buckle as it normally would then the lower 48 is flooded with mild marine air.  I will say a warmer than usual PAC with a EC trough will have a very juicy sub tropical component if it happens.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@Bob Chill yeah a friendly GEFS run. Good look for our storms and for avoiding a major torch. Can easily see how that quickly turns into an aleutian low and -EPO. Just got to avoid the TPV turning into a strongly +AO.

Yep, it's what we want to see. We can pretty much expect a relaxation of some sort in Dec and that's totally fine and completely normal. But the strength of the +EPO on the EPS and recent GEFS runs is something we really need to avoid. If a deep bn height anomaly sets up in the EPO region it's more likely than not to have some staying power. That's troubling because of what it does to north america as a whole. It takes time to recover back to a winter pattern even after the bad pattern starts to relax. Luckily it's so far out in time that we don't need to worry about it yet. Any trend away from the blue ball is a welcome sight. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, H2O said:

@psuhoffman the basin wide warmth in the Pac is the one thing that I see as possibly causing ENSO to not act as it would normally.  It basically spells out that any flow directly off the PAC will be a bad thing.  Our cold source has to originate from the arctic and if the jet can't buckle as it normally would then the lower 48 is flooded with mild marine air.  I will say a warmer than usual PAC with a EC trough will have a very juicy sub tropical component if it happens.

I could see that... there are no good analogs here with this type of sst configuration along with such a warm overall base state of the entire pacific.  I could also see this as loading the pattern even more.  When the jet crashes in off the pacific we go mild, but as you said it could also increase the STJ and so when we do get colder periods.... just have to hope we time them up.  This is uncharted territory so we will just have to see.  

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, H2O said:

@psuhoffman the basin wide warmth in the Pac is the one thing that I see as possibly causing ENSO to not act as it would normally.  It basically spells out that any flow directly off the PAC will be a bad thing.  Our cold source has to originate from the arctic and if the jet can't buckle as it normally would then the lower 48 is flooded with mild marine air.  I will say a warmer than usual PAC with a EC trough will have a very juicy sub tropical component if it happens.

 

34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I could see that... there are no good analogs here with this type of sst configuration along with such a warm overall base state of the entire pacific.  I could also see this as loading the pattern even more.  When the jet crashes in off the pacific we go mild, but as you said it could also increase the STJ and so when we do get colder periods.... just have to hope we time them up.  This is uncharted territory so we will just have to see.  

Oh great...one more thing to worry about...lol So basically, this unusual feature could either be a hero or a villain? (And the hero being only if it's timed with an EC trough?) Ugh...I felt better with it being an ENSO year, and with the factor that sunk other weak-to moderate Niño years you mentioned (a raging AO) seeming not to be a problem, a productive winter felt safe. But now we gotta play Russian roulette with this feature because we don't know how it's gonna affect things! Eh...I like certainty, lol)

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted
Just now, yoda said:

I don't want to be a party pooper... but its rain for most at 240 except the i-81 corridor and MD on the precip maps

Yeah I don’t doubt it, but it’s substantially improved from previous runs. If the 850 low was closer to the surface low, it would be snow. Might transfer to the coast after 240 too. It’s a good run at this range IMO.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

 

Oh great...one more thing to worry about...lol So basically, this unusual feature could either be a hero or a villain? (And the hero being only if it's timed with an EC trough?) Ugh...I felt better with it being an ENSO year, and with the factor that sunk other weak-to moderate Niño years you mentioned (a raging AO) seeming not to be a problem, a productive winter felt safe. But now we gotta play Russian roulette with this feature because we don't know how it's gonna affect things! Eh...I like certainty, lol)

There are better things to worry about than frozen water.  You're taking up the wrong hobby if you like certainty!  

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah I don’t doubt it, but it’s substantially improved from previous runs. If the 850 low was closer to the surface low, it would be snow. Might transfer to the coast after 240 too. It’s a good run at this range IMO.

This is true... but I do see an 1037 HP way back in the Plains in N IA... banana high implications?
 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, yoda said:

I don't want to be a party pooper... but its rain for most at 240 except the i-81 corridor on the precip maps

 

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah I don’t doubt it, but it’s substantially improved from previous runs. If the 850 low was closer to the surface low, it would be snow. Might transfer to the coast after 240 too. It’s a good run at this range IMO.

I've noticed the euro often runs a little warm at long range. Jan 2016 was a rainstorm at day 10 on the euro. Nov 15 was a rainstorm from range. It usually gets better with the thermals once in more reasonable leads. I'm way more interested in the h5 features and large scale synoptic setup at day 5-10 than I am the exact thermal profile. 

That said the track is a bit inside ideal but from day 10 that's not worth worrying about. 

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, yoda said:

This is true... but I do see an HP way back in the Plains... banana high implications?
 

High isn’t as ideal as the GFS, but it’s better than what’s been suggested by the EPS and previous runs where the leading high is near Bermuda. 

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poolz1

poolz1

Posted
Posted

Long track storm at the end of an anomalous cold period? Pretty big piece of energy coming into the west coast for models to track...This same piece is evident by hr 90 on the GFS.  D10 Euro has "that look."  In a perfect world we would get a nice 1-3/2-4 appetizer on roughly the 5th and then 4-6 days later we get a real taste of an el nino winter storm.

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Scud

Scud

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Long track storm at the end of an anomalous cold period? Pretty big piece of energy coming into the west coast for models to track...This same piece is evident by hr 90 on the GFS.  D10 Euro has "that look."  In a perfect world we would get a nice 1-3/2-4 appetizer on roughly the 5th and then 4-6 days later we get a real taste of an el nino winter storm.

Sounds good.

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There are better things to worry about than frozen water.  You're taking up the wrong hobby if you like certainty!  

I have tried focusing on your frozen water analogy to ease my mild obsession...update: it didn't work :lol: I try and remind myself that all snow melts eventually...but my emotions won't catch up to the logic, haha But I digress...Learning all too well the uncertainty with this hobby. It's just...Ninos (weak-to mod, that is) work out the best...and looking at the awful failure the last two years have been, the thought of some unusual feature trying to screw us over for the entire winter is...yuck (especially now when we got a nino, low solar, favorable AO...the combination that always nets us at minimum a productive winter)

On the flip side...having an unusual feature that ENHANCES our snow chances...the thought of that is epic!

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