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November/December Medium/Long Range Disco

WinterWxLuvr

By WinterWxLuvr,
in Mid Atlantic

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I have noticed over the last several years that the EPS really won't show much of a signal on the snowfall means until a threat gets into the day 10 range.  Even in January 2016, there was a hint at the setup on the h5 but the snowfall mean didnt start to respond until it was within about day 10.  The GEFS will often jump of something in the day 11-15 range, and usually its wrong, probably because of its lack of spread compared to the EPS.  Due to its greater variability and numbers, plus the time range, the EPS won't really show a significant snowfall total on the mean in the day 11-15 range even in a pretty good pattern.  Seeing it start to jump up around day 10 when the pattern is conducive to a snowfall is typical.  Still doesn't mean its high probability or anything but its not a bad sign.  

You just know that if Mitch is reading this he is screaming at the computer that the snowfall means mean squat for our snowstorm chances. :lol: I honestly miss the debates you and I had with him over this.

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jewell2188

jewell2188

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, jayyy said:

We’re not even through November and most have seen snowfall (some have seen significant snowfall) and it’s been in the 30s and cold for nearly a week. We will certainly be well under average for the month. The fact that people are panicking because a storm may be rain or mix before winter even begins is ridiculous.

 

Patience guys. Patience. The first storm in December will likely not be a snow maker. The second, however, likely will be as we will have blocking and a -AO. 

I’m glad you know it will be a snow maker.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z GFS at 216 looks intriguing at h5...

Looks like suppression for us at 240 but still like the look

Honestly like what it is showing at this point. A, the setup argues against this cutting. B, GFS in the past has had a habit of suppressing systems somewhat until we have gotten within mid/short-range. Of course this is a newer version of the GFS so that suppression rule may no longer be in play.

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted

Much better high position and a stronger shortwave this run. Storms still there. Not much else to say on an op run 11 days out.

 

As for the 5th, we want something closer to what today’s 12z Canadian has. A weaker more progressive wave that just rises the boundary. Or we hope for front end magic before rain like our storm 2 weeks ago.

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Honestly like what it is showing at this point. A, the setup argues against this cutting. B, GFS in the past has had a habit of suppressing systems somewhat until we have gotten within mid/short-range. Of course this is a newer version of the GFS so that suppression rule may no longer be in play.

thats still the same GFS...the new one hasnt run yet

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Yeah, I know. The version we a have now though is new enough that I am not sure if the suppression rule is still in play or not. At times it seemed as if it were and other times not so much.

When does the FV3 get launched?

I haven't seen an exact date... but sometime early 2019 its supposed to be operational and replace the old GFS I believe

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Scraff

Scraff

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Yeah, I know. The version we a have now though is new enough that I am not sure if the suppression rule is still in play or not. At times it seemed as if it were and other times not so much.

When does the FV3 get launched?

I hear it’s scheduled departure for the moon is inevitable. Kennedy Space Center working out the deets. :lol: 

Anyway—back to selling beer and tracking mood of the forum...

 

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George BM

George BM

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Yeah, I know. The version we a have now though is new enough that I am not sure if the suppression rule is still in play or not. At times it seemed as if it were and other times not so much.

When does the FV3 get launched?

Late January IIRC. Don't quote me on that though.

ETA: Ninja'd.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

@Maestrobjwa

yesterday you brought up the modoki vs basin wide debate going on. I replied but didn't have time to go into it much.  Imo there is a lot of confusion regarding this. And some of it seems to be a difference in how some classify a modoki. Some seems to be ignorance. And some seems to be agenda driven intellectual dishonesty.  But the problem is the difference between different types of enso is ambiguous sometimes and not a clear cut thing  

First there seems to be a newer definition of a modoki that classifies it as warmer waters in the central Pacific with cooler waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The older classic definition I was familiar with was when the warming originates and propagates from the central Pacific.  

By the newer definition there are very few actual modoki ninos. Almost all the ninos we call modoki would be basin wide by that definition because almost all of them as they mature spread out and encompass the entire basin at some point. But some are using this more restrictive classification to say this is not a modoki.  But then 2002/03, 2009/10, and 2014/15 weren't either.  

Let's call these people the modoki truthers. By their definition yea this isn't a modoki but neither are the other analogs. Some of them seem to truly be confused about the distinction  and some seem to be playing word games to serve an agenda. I have no interest in labels. I don't care what you call this phenomenon. Call it the kings nuts for all I care what matters to me are finding good analogs not what to call them. 

I'll try to illustrate below.  This is how a classical nino evolves originating in the eastern Pacific and propagating westward.

2006

IMG_7812.thumb.GIF.eb593e4faaa944283527e7ca8a6e9147.GIFIMG_7818.thumb.GIF.fba412762b49b3aa1147b0d5be8a948e.GIF

2015

IMG_7811.thumb.GIF.f12671f3bb5fbe1e6c44d9865464d865.GIFIMG_7819.thumb.GIF.87b9499cdecc74d00191583dd0226a15.GIF

in the next post I'll show some "modoki" years and this year...

 

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midatlanticweather

midatlanticweather

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

@Maestrobjwa

yesterday you brought up the modoki vs basin wide debate going on. I replied but didn't have time to go into it much.  Imo there is a lot of confusion regarding this. And some of it seems to be a difference in how some classify a modoki. Some seems to be ignorance. And some seems to be agenda driven intellectual dishonesty.  But the problem is the difference between different types of enso is ambiguous sometimes and not a clear cut thing  

First there seems to be a newer definition of a modoki that classifies it as warmer waters in the central Pacific with cooler waters in the wearer equatorial Pacific. The older classic definition I was familiar with was when the warming originates and propagates from the central Pacific.  

By the newer definition there are very few actual modoki ninos. Almost all the ninos we call modoki would be basin wide by that definition because almost all of them as they mature spread out and encompass the entire basin at some point. But some are using this more restrictive classification to say this is not a modoki.  But then 2002/2, 2009/10, and 2014/15 weren't either.  

Let's call these people the modoki truthers. By their definition yea this isn't a modoki but neither are the other analogs. Some of them seem to truly be confused about the distraction and some seem to be playing word games to serve an agenda. I have no interest in labels. I don't care what you call this phenomenon. Call it the kings nuts for all I care what matters to me are finding good analogs not what to call them. 

I'll try to illustrate below.  This is how a classical nino evolves originating in the eastern Pacific and propagating westward.

.....

in the next post I'll show some "modoki" years and this year...

19

 

Looking forward to seeing the kings nuts in your next post! 

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted

Mean GEFS has a nice track for the 5th to our south. Certainly a cluster that goes into the Lakes, but it’s better than I expected. Lots of spread still for the 9th as you’d expect. 

 

On a side note, GEFS seems more dispersive so far this winter relative to last year. Not sure if that was a code change or coincidence.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

GEFS took a nice step in how we can avoid a terrible pac setup. The Scand ridge pushing into the NAO region will help both the east coast not flip to warm and also help prevent a burly AK trough/vortex. GEFS backed off quite a bit on the strength of the +EPO building over AK.

Look at the isobars along the pac coast of Canada. Much better than the trough axis further east like the EPS and recent GEFS runs have shown. If ensembles continue to trend in that direction we can breath a small sigh of relief...

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65.png

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