November/December Medium/Long Range Disco

[frd]

22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The good news is the ens are showing just about the worst possible pattern for winter wx in the conus in early Dec so it can only get better from here. There are worse patterns for our region but that Pac setup... ooof. Hope it's wrong or hope it's transient.

Bob you think this is simple par for the course,  as we have been cold for a while, and a bit snowy, now time for a relax.

Do you view this crap Pac setting up as a means to an end ?

Like we need to have a relax and warm up and maybe late December shapes up better ? 

El Nino Decembers are hardly ever great.

Just based on November, I would naturally guess this December turns out warmer. Maybe not the entire month, looks cold early and then again maybe late month we flip. 

How things transpire during Dec. may lead to a colder and stormier Jan too.  Not sure how a 2 week or more warm spell in December effects any forecasted " typical " Jan thaw.

Maybe we roll into a period of cold and snow that lasts a while. 

We might be in uncharted waters as so few analogs really fit this winter coming up. 

 

[frd]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I like the feb look even better honestly. Remember lower heights to our northeast is a good thing. We don't need some dark blue ball over us in January and February to snow. 

Ah true. I hope it comes to reality.  At least blocking is across all modeling, a good sign.   

[Bob Chill]

@frd

I have no idea if it's just part of a rolling pattern or the deep AK trough/vortex is going to be a dominant theme. It's ruined winters before and that's why it's hard to look at. Brings up the conversation of how winter in the east half of the conus can be ruined. It will be a collective sigh of relief of weenies everywhere if it's transient. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Saw mention of the Dec 5-6 time frame in the Panic Room before all hell broke loose.  Maybe, though I am not particularly enthused on it at this time. 

Sort of like the Dec 8-10 time frame myself (slight timing differences between the GEFS and the EPS). Might be a period worth keeping an eye on. But +10 day on the models so you know how that goes.

 

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

But this upcoming cold snap is a unusual Conus wide shot in most guidance that as advertised would give us 5 or 6 days to possibly score something . Hopefully we can time something in this large  window . 

 

It's not a perfect setup but there is enough right that I would not be surprised if a legit threat appeared somewhere in that time period.  I think our first chance at frozen would be a discreet wave (either a west to east vort embedded in the flow or a clipper) around the 6-8th.  After that the 9-11th as the pattern breaks down would be a threat window if we can time up a stj wave.   The period is worth watching for sure.  After that we are probably going to have to suffer a bad pattern for a little while.  

[Jandurin]

How long until we know if it's transient?

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Jandurin said:

How long until we know if it's transient?

2 weeks

[frd]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

@frd

I have no idea if it's just part of a rolling pattern or the deep AK trough/vortex is going to be a dominant theme. It's ruined winters before and that's why it's hard to look at. Brings up the conversation of how winter in the east half of the conus can be ruined. It will be a collective sigh of relief of weenies everywhere if it's transient. 

Thanks Bob, most long range mets I follow are saying no way it can stay there,  and it is not the end to numerous good winter forecasts. So, I hope they are correct. 

Still, if we really warm up, it will be a negative for some seasonal forecasts that had December in the East either cold or normal. 

Time will tell.......or like you said Bob, we will know more in about 2 weeks  :-)   

[psuhoffman]

29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The good news is the ens are showing just about the worst possible pattern for winter wx in the conus in early Dec so it can only get better from here. There are worse patterns for our region but that Pac setup... ooof. Hope it's wrong or hope it's transient.

I don't think it's wrong, I do think its transient.  Maybe not as transient as some want, but not the type of permanent winter feature that will wreck the winter.  It would be almost unprecedented given the pacific sst pattern.  The few examples where we failed miserably in that configuration were due to a raging positive AO/NAO combo.  On top of that this crap look coincides with the MJO going into the ugly phases.  That is also highly unlikely to last.  The models just can't see to the other side of that influence yet.  But the MJO has been consistently cycling through phases 8-3 for months.  That is supported by the SST pattern so there is no reason to expect that to change.  Right now that isn't necessarily the best phases but as we move into Winter phases 1-2 become more favorable, and if all we have to do is suffer a phase 3 before a reload each cycle that is a pretty good deal.  Keep us out of prolonged slow slogs through phases 4-6 all winter and I am good.  On top of that the AO looks to really want to stay negative to neutral.  The PV isnt actually strengthening just moving into the worst possible location for us.  Push it out of there in any direction and we are ok.  For all those reasons I am still optimistic we see a good pattern emerge out of all this once the MJO wave progresses out of the unfavorable phases again.  

9 minutes ago, frd said:

Ah true. I hope it comes to reality.  At least blocking is across all modeling, a good sign.   

The PV continues to take a beating.  We are not yet seeing blocking set up in the best spots for us but this does not have the feel of a year where the AO is going to kill us.  Yea the PV looks to set up in a bad spot for a while but I still like our chances for a good blocking pattern later in winter given what I am seeing now.  Keep that PV getting beat around and we should be ok.  

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, frd said:

Thanks Bob, most long range mets I follow are saying no way it can stay there,  and it is not the end to numerous good winter forecasts. So, I hope they are correct. 

Still, if we really warm up, it will be a negative for some seasonal forecasts that had December in the East either cold or normal. 

Time will tell.......or like you said Bob, we will know more in about 2 weeks  :-)   

I doubt we see december end up with a big positive temp anomaly.  The first 10-12 days are going to average below normal.  After that we very likely will go above...but its possible by the last 10 days of the month we are colder again.  Right now I would guess near average overall in the end.  Nothing wrong with that in a nino.  

[Scud]

[frd]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I doubt we see december end up with a big positive temp anomaly.  The first 10-12 days are going to average below normal.  After that we very likely will go above...but its possible by the last 10 days of the month we are colder again.  Right now I would guess near average overall in the end.  Nothing wrong with that in a nino.  

All good points psu. 

Question, why do you think the MJO which looked great 24 to 48 ago ( was forecasted going into phase 8 then 1 and then 2 I believe ) has suddenly changed and is now forecasted to go onto the COD ?  

Puzzling ......

[frd]

Interesting 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, frd said:

All good points psu. 

Question, why do you think the MJO which looked great 24 to 48 ago ( was forecasted going into phase 8 then 1 and then 2 I believe ) has suddenly changed and is now forecasted to go onto the COD ?  

Puzzling ......

no idea, the euro and cfs products don't do that but the GEFS products did suddenly lose the mjo wave in the last 24 hours.  Interesting to see how that plays out.  

[PhineasC]

Can't wait until the epic pattern shows up and it doesn't snow, but then we miss a storm pop up during the terrible pattern. Rinse and repeat.

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I don't think it's wrong, I do think its transient.  Maybe not as transient as some want, but not the type of permanent winter feature that will wreck the winter. 

Yea, when you see exceptionally strong anomalies at long leads like we are seeing now then it's prob going to happen. It's kinda dumb to get worried about something being persistent when 1) it hasn't happened yet 2) is counter-intuitive to enso 3) it's not even Dec yet. Just bringing up the point that it's one of the things that has spoiled winter in a big way in the past. If we're still staring at an AK blue ball around Christmas we can proceed to full blown panic as a bootleg/transient NAO sets up and it snows a foot in the worst possible pattern. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Be interesting to see if that storm showing up to our south on the GFS ensemble members stays around for a few model runs.  It's there on a bunch of them, most of which slide it off the coast below us .... for now.

[yoda]

I am liking the h5 look at 240 on the 12z GFS... yes it's 10 days out, but still looks decent IMO

[Wonderdog]

Now turn NE

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

I am liking the h5 look at 240 on the 12z GFS... yes it's 10 days out, but still looks decent IMO

That period is the one I'm thinking could present a threat. It's going to depend on if we can get a strong enough stj wave in that window we should have before the Conus gets flooded with PAC air. 

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That period is the one I'm thinking could present a threat. It's going to depend on if we can get a strong enough stj wave in that window we should have before the Conus gets flooded with PAC air. 

Agree... it gets squashed south of us for now though... that HP placement is a bit too far south for our liking

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Agree... it gets squashed south of us for now though... that HP placement is a bit too far south for our liking

Plus the southern wave gets left behind and so is squashed instead by the northern stream. Need it to get out in front more or be more in sync. But these are things that won't be right from day 11. That high and the whole thermal boundary will move hundreds of miles run to run.  Let's say the whole boundary ends up north then we would want a flat west to east system like that. Still too far out and too many moving parts to waste time on details.  

[WxUSAF]

Huh...front end snow on the 4th cutter from the FV3. This weekends storm drags the baroclinic zone and cold air much farther south than the op GFS.

[WinterWxLuvr]

That's the storm (12z gfs) I was referring to earlier. Question now is will the flow allow it to come north and is it all over the ensembles like it was at 6z.

[Bob Chill]

12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Huh...front end snow on the 4th cutter from the FV3. This weekends storm drags the baroclinic zone and cold air much farther south than the op GFS.

There's some minor EPS/GEFS support for the potential. 12z gefs moved ever so slightly better. We'll see what the euro/eps does shortly. At the very least the trend last few runs has been better instead of worse. We usually back into most of our events and a lot of time for things to move around. 

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

There's some minor EPS/GEFS support for the potential. 12z gefs moved ever so slightly better. We'll see what the euro/eps does shortly. At the very least the trend last few runs has been better instead of worse. We usually back into most of our events and a lot of time for things to move around. 

Was just looking at GEFS. Certainly not a slam dunk Chicago cutter like I expected. Cluster of weaker solutions that go south of us it looks like. Way out there, but good support for something around the 9th also, but looks suppressed. 

Certainly going to be cold from the 5th through the 12th or so. 

AO is also solidly negative for the first 11 days of the month. 

[Scraff]

19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Huh...front end snow on the 4th cutter from the FV3. This weekends storm drags the baroclinic zone and cold air much farther south than the op GFS.

Definitely drops a few inches before washing it away. Maybe we skip the washing away part though. 

[yoda]

Just now, Scraff said:

Definitely drops a few inches before washing it away. Maybe we skip the washing away part though. 

If only the TT snow charts were right lol

[Scraff]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

If only the TT snow charts were right lol

I know I know. I was merely seeing a mirage. Lol. 

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Was just looking at GEFS. Certainly not a slam dunk Chicago cutter like I expected. Cluster of weaker solutions that go south of us it looks like. Way out there, but good support for something around the 9th also, but looks suppressed. 

Certainly going to be cold from the 5th through the 12th or so. 

AO is also solidly negative for the first 11 days of the month. 

More notable improvement on the 12z GEFS for the d10-13 window. That's obviously the best shot considering it will have the deepest cold to work with. If we did squeeze out another couple inches of snow it will solidify a solid start to the season with 2 or more accum events before mid Dec. 

[WxUSAF]

I’m on mobile so I can’t show pictures easily, but look at the end of the GEFS and you can sort of see how we don’t get stuck in some sort of endless torch from hell. The features to watch are the lobe of the TPV near Kamchatka (which has only just started showing up on the GEFS at least) and the TPV that moves into western AK.  They drive the Aleutian ridge down to nothing and you see them starting to want to merge at the very end. IF the TPV over AK continues rotating westward and combines with the Kamchatka one, then suddenly that’s our new aleutian low, which drives the PNA back up and sends a trough back to us.