Bob Chill Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 20 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z EPS at 240 h5 looks fine to me... nothing great... ORH has said in the SNE forum that it is ugly after. Hopefully we can steal a storm beforehand... just a nice refresher of like 1-2" Pretty much a flood of pac air into the entire NA continent d11-15. Canada in particular. Too far down the line to get hung up on but it's not pretty to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Pretty much a flood of pac air into the entire NA continent d11-15. Canada in particular. Too far down the line to get hung up on but it's not pretty to look at. Meanwhile, it will keep raining every 2-3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 34 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z EPS at 240 h5 looks fine to me... nothing great... ORH has said in the SNE forum that it is ugly after. Hopefully we can steal a storm beforehand... just a nice refresher of like 1-2" Pretty nice cold shot before any mild period. 12z EPS looks better than the last 4 runs for a chance at something d8+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Pretty nice cold shot before any mild period. 12z EPS looks better than the last 4 runs for a chance at something d8+ Agree. Looks like we have a chance right before the moderation of warmer air if the EPS is to be believed. Dec 4-8 is probably our time period to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 9 minutes ago, frd said: I believe it was 02-03 where things progressed so exactly that HM was able to hit windows of snowfall and threats far out in the distance. Speaking of the MJO and SSTs I watched Weatherbell this AM. and saw the SST profile West of Aussie and it is still the same with the colder SSTs. Also, saw an animation on the Nino region SSTs, and while you hear about the warmer anomalies are shifting East the actual SST warmer temps and sub surface depth has the real focus still being Central Pac based. So, those areas are looking good. Interesting...You can almost see the setup now. 3rd/4th week of Dec thru 2nd week of Jan...relax....Feb 10th thru end of Feb. These are rough but the deeper we get into winter the shorter the period is between optimal mjo periods and also...8-1-2 is money in Feb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 2 hours ago, Zach’s Pop said: Yea I hate when it’s cold in December Lol. It's 16 days out so I'm sure it will change many times but if you loop it our cold source region is being flooded with average to above average 2m temps. Definitely not a look that would provide cold air and Snow chances for us. Most of western Canada is a/or above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 18 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Lol. It's 16 days out so I'm sure it will change many times but if you loop it our cold source region is being flooded with average to above average 2m temps. Definitely not a look that would provide cold air and Snow chances for us. Most of western Canada is a/or above normal. That look would yield some mid 40s sunny days followed by 55 and rain. People need to not post 2m temp maps from day 15 ens means when they don't have a clue how to interpret them. Actually, those panels should never be posted by anyone for any reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 The cold east/warm west in these maps makes me wonder if the Pacific pattern is too far east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 FWIW, @CoastalWx in the SNE forum says Pacific looks ugly in Euro weeklies week 3 and 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 58 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We'll see if the weeklies cancel December soon enough. 32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: They did. I suppose verbatim it's more of a milder Canada instead of a SE ridge, but I know Pacific puke when I see it, 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think it's picking up on the MJO stuff now. It is what it is. We don't know how bad it will be, but it's not reversing to a -EPO or +PNA. Nope. Hopefully it's somewhat salvageable. 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: The biggest thing it has to be is short lived. (As in no more than 2-3 weeks) 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: From what I hear of the long range guys, they think so too, We pray. Some hints of wetter than normal down south later week 3 into week 4, so may have some srn stream action. Hopefully some cold is around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, yoda said: FWIW, @CoastalWx in the SNE forum says Pacific looks ugly in Euro weeklies week 3 and 4 Given what the end of the 0z run looked like, I am not sure this edition of the weeklies is something I am even gonna bother to look at. It has got to be pretty uninspiring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Given what the end of the 0z run looked like, I am not sure this edition of the weeklies is something I am even gonna bother to look at. It has got to be pretty uninspiring. True, wait until next week when it will shift 180 degrees yet again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 1 minute ago, Yeoman said: True, wait until next week when it will shift 180 degrees yet again Exactly. Weeklies were showing a very nice Dec pattern just a week or 2 ago. Now it sucks. So in another week or 2 it will be good again... and so forth and so on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 47 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Exactly. Weeklies were showing a very nice Dec pattern just a week or 2 ago. Now it sucks. So in another week or 2 it will be good again... and so forth and so on They have been all over the place and rather ambiguous. I totally expected this run to suck- it was a pretty easy call. I don't need verification lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: They have been all over the place and rather ambiguous. I totally expected this run to suck- it was a pretty easy call. I don't need verification lol. @C.A.P.E. Do you recall last year at this time I think the Euro seasonal did well, but the weeklies once again were eratic and bouncing around? Maybe place more faith in the Euro seasonals vs the weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 Keeping the pressure on ....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 12 minutes ago, frd said: Keeping the pressure on ....... Important in what way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 38 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Important in what way? By keeping the PV weaker than normal and prone to displacement(s), and further weakening it can encourage colder air to move South towards us and also encourage a -AO. The opposite would be a very, very cold and powerful PV locking up the Cold up North near the pole and keeping the lower lattitudes generally warmer. The stronger the PV gets the harder to weaken it I think. Also, the more early season hits on the PV the better, as that tends to keep the PV from reaching a mature state. Some of these events as HM talks about and others are known at times as precursor events that in the past have shown a connection to future PV events such as weakenings, displacements, minor and major warming events as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 2 hours ago, frd said: Maybe place more faith in the Euro seasonals vs the weeklies. Sounds logical.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 Sounds logical.. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 Look at how cold the Euro is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Look at how cold the Euro is These cold snaps are in and out with any N Atl blocking being transient thru mid Dec. Hopefully like isotherm and others have mentioned 2nd half of Dec swings into more climatologically favorable regimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: But this upcoming cold snap is a unusual Conus wide shot in most guidance that as advertised would give us 5 or 6 days to possibly score something . Hopefully we can time something in this large window . Saw mention of the Dec 5-6 time frame in the Panic Room before all hell broke loose. Maybe, though I am not particularly enthused on it at this time. Sort of like the Dec 8-10 time frame myself (slight timing differences between the GEFS and the EPS). Might be a period worth keeping an eye on. But +10 day on the models so you know how that goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 22 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: But this upcoming cold snap is a unusual Conus wide shot in most guidance that as advertised would give us 5 or 6 days to possibly score something . Hopefully we can time something in this large window . Both of our respective regions tend to cash in when the rubber band snaps back so maybe like you said, if we can time things properly we can get another bonus event before calendar winter begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 This is a new model to me. I have not heard of it before. Ii would not be surprised to see March being cold and snowy. Almost seems like a general month to month retro of blocking from Greenland then shifting West in time, with the ideal month here portrayed to be March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 I mean, nothing wrong with an italian model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 Hmmm, nice to see more attempts coming at the PV. Maybe in time a more robust series of waves. As John states the anomaly has been increasing in forecasts. I like the word anomaly, it reminds me of the Matrix :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 The good news is the ens are showing just about the worst possible pattern for winter wx in the conus in early Dec so it can only get better from here. There are worse patterns for our region but that Pac setup... ooof. Hope it's wrong or hope it's transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The good news is the ens are showing just about the worst possible pattern for winter wx in the conus in early Dec so it can only get better from here. There are worse patterns for our region but that Pac setup... ooof. Hope it's wrong or hope it's transient. "The good news is they're showing the worst possible pattern" ick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 40 minutes ago, frd said: This is a new model to me. I have not heard of it before. Ii would not be surprised to see March being cold and snowy. Almost seems like a general month to month retro of blocking from Greenland then shifting West in time, with the ideal month here portrayed to be March. I like the feb look even better honestly. Remember lower heights to our northeast is a good thing. We don't need some dark blue ball over us in January and February to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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