WxUSAF Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Whoa, euro is frigid for thanksgiving. Like highs at or below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Whoa, euro is frigid for thanksgiving. Like highs at or below freezing. Yeah I was looking at that earlier. Upper 20s to low 30s verbatim. Would be some cold tushes for early morning Black Friday shopping. Upper teens- low 20s. Remember all the concern about 70 for Turkey day not too long ago? We got full on early winter mode happening now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 GFS has a cold shot too, but the day before and not quite as cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Heading to hitlon head for Thanksgiving. Wouldn’t mind relishing in 70° for a few days before the hammer drops in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Just looked at 18z for Thanksgiving and it’s above 50. I guess worlds apart from Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 12z CMC is much colder on Thanksgiving and Black Friday. I hadn’t looked at that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 12z FV3 and 18z GFS start to tease us with an early December threat. Obviously well supported by the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 57 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah I was looking at that earlier. Upper 20s to low 30s verbatim. Would be some cold tushes for early morning Black Friday shopping. Upper teens- low 20s. Remember all the concern about 70 for Turkey day not too long ago? We got full on early winter mode happening now! Oh god please let it be clear, crisp, and very cold on thanksgiving. That would be glorious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Whoa, euro is frigid for thanksgiving. Like highs at or below freezing. I'll be in western CT over the holiday. Would love to have temps in the teens and hopefully a few snow flurries to create the perfect setting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Oh god please let it be clear, crisp, and very cold on thanksgiving. That would be glorious. Both GFS at 18z say Thanksgiving not cold at all. Mid 50s it looks to me. Unless you are in Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 1 hour ago, schinz said: I do a lot of observing and not too much talking around here, but in this case it appeared to me that all of the evidence anyone needed was right in front of them. JB said 2 days before the storm to take the Euro snow totals and take 75% of them to be real close. He obviously took a lot more into account than just looking at the model but what I was amazed most at was how much "in denial" so many on here and in the media weather forecasting business were. Look at the model consensus for accumulating snows that we had, for multiple runs, with some minor fluctuations, particularly in the last 24 hours before the event. Yet, all I heard all over the place was "climo doesn't support this," "The ground is warm and it won't accumulate," "It's November, I will be happy with dusting," etc. etc. All along, we had great moderate consensus staring right at us. JMO, maybe the facts and model evaluation that everyone always does should not be outweighed by history, climo, and all those other factors that made a lot of people not see what was right in front of us. All the models showed a lot of mixed precip near the cities. It was pretty remarkable how well it turned out but we've also been on the losing side of many marginal events in all winter months over the years. It was pretty logical to hedge on the low end of frozen due to the shallow depth of the cold and the calendar date. The euro nailed it though. Incredibly accurate with the surface and mids. The fact that the storm ended up on the cold side of guidance was a surprise to me. I did expect some snow. Especially in the NW zones. Seemed likely out there. My yard comes up short often with razor thin margins with temps. Ended up being a really nice event for everyone along and west of 95. Hopefully its the first of many this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 21 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Both GFS at 18z say Thanksgiving not cold at all. Mid 50s it looks to me. Unless you are in Maine. Perfect for Thanksgiving, in my opinion. It’s not Christmas, FFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: All the models showed a lot of mixed precip near the cities. It was pretty remarkable how well it turned out but we've also been on the losing side of many marginal events in all winter months over the years. It was pretty logical to hedge on the low end of frozen due to the shallow depth of the cold and the calendar date. The euro nailed it though. Incredibly accurate with the surface and mids. The fact that the storm ended up on the cold side of guidance was a surprise to me. I did expect some snow. Especially in the NW zones. Seemed likely out there. My yard comes up short often with razor thin margins with temps. Ended up being a really nice event for everyone along and west of 95. Hopefully its the first of many this winter One thing I learned is that thickness doesn’t have to be 540. Somehow I always thought that above 540 and you are screwed. Maybe 543 in deep winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: One thing I learned is that thickness doesn’t have to be 540. Somehow I always thought that above 540 and you are screwed. Maybe 543 in deep winter. I think it is great to look back on such a unique event and learn. One thing I learned, unfortunately first hand when my 1:15 trip from hagerstown to Westminster ended up being 6 hours, is that it really doesn't matter how "warm the roads are" if the surface is below freezing and heavy frozen precipitation is falling!!! Those warm roads don't end up very well!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dendrimer77 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 1 hour ago, schinz said: I do a lot of observing and not too much talking around here, but in this case it appeared to me that all of the evidence anyone needed was right in front of them. JB said 2 days before the storm to take the Euro snow totals and take 75% of them to be real close. He obviously took a lot more into account than just looking at the model but what I was amazed most at was how much "in denial" so many on here and in the media weather forecasting business were. Look at the model consensus for accumulating snows that we had, for multiple runs, with some minor fluctuations, particularly in the last 24 hours before the event. Yet, all I heard all over the place was "climo doesn't support this," "The ground is warm and it won't accumulate," "It's November, I will be happy with dusting," etc. etc. All along, we had great moderate consensus staring right at us. JMO, maybe the facts and model evaluation that everyone always does should not be outweighed by history, climo, and all those other factors that made a lot of people not see what was right in front of us. Yes, but some of those models didn't get everything right. For example, although the HRRR handled the northern tier of VA well with it's consistent snow prediction, it crapped the bed down here around Charlottesville. Never got any of the sweet snow the HRRR was trying to sell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 22 minutes ago, mattie g said: Perfect for Thanksgiving, in my opinion. It’s not Christmas, FFS. I was hoping for rain with a high of 38. Probably too much to expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ohhh boy...gonna be a long 15+ days, one way or the other! (And if it still looks like that a week from now...and then 10 days...yep, tracking parade.) Man, seems like we are so close! It's getting harder and harder to temper excitement, but I think I'll hold it in till the end of next week...still gotta watch... Don't set expectations too high. Meaning don't expect an event to come easy during the first week of Dec. It might happen but just having a good longwave pattern is only a piece of the puzzle. Our big events usually happen when the NAO goes from negative to neutral or positive. Sometimes during a building -NAO it can be dry here. Even moreso in the NE. Don't get me wrong, I'm very excited to see the high latitudes cooperate leading into Dec but it could take weeks before anything happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I have family in the south now, so I have gone there the last decade or so for the holidays. I've grown to like 70 and sun on Thanksgiving. Great football weather... That said, after nearly touching 80 with a tornado warning on Christmas Eve or Christmas in 2016, I decided I would spare no expense to get the family further north for Christmas. I'm not doing that again. Honestly, having it be warm and comfortable on Thanksgiving is ideal. If it’s a torch and there’s no sign of an end to the flamethrower coming off the Pacific, then it might be a different story, but all things being equal I much prefer a Thanksgiving during which you can open the windows and doors, fry a turkey without losing feeling in your fingers, and let the kids run around without freezing their arses off! We’re going to have 20 people at my house for Christmas, and the kids can end up with frostbite for all I care. Christmas is a different beast altogether. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 8 minutes ago, mattie g said: Honestly, having it be warm and comfortable on Thanksgiving is ideal. If it’s a torch and there’s no sign of an end to the flamethrower coming off the Pacific, then it might be a different story, but all things being equal I much prefer a Thanksgiving during which you can open the windows and doors, fry a turkey without losing feeling in your fingers, and let the kids run around without freezing their arses off! We’re going to have 20 people at my house for Christmas, and the kids can end up with frostbite for all I care. Christmas is a different beast altogether. Knowing what may be in store for Dec I guess I can deal with it and hide in the basement. You did make a compelling counterpoint however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 54 minutes ago, mattie g said: Perfect for Thanksgiving, in my opinion. It’s not Christmas, FFS. Christmas is usually 70 so we need a cold Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Don't set expectations too high. Meaning don't expect an event to come easy during the first week of Dec. It might happen but just having a good longwave pattern is only a piece of the puzzle. Our big events usually happen when the NAO goes from negative to neutral or positive. Sometimes during a building -NAO it can be dry here. Even moreso in the NE. Don't get me wrong, I'm very excited to see the high latitudes cooperate leading into Dec but it could take weeks before anything happens. Which makes me wonder about potential in mid-December?...If the pattern is set to relax...maybe that would be the time if we get something?... So...what can make things, well...NOT dry during a -NAO phase? (What's the other piece(s) needed?) And please bear with me...I'm not trying to hype anything, nor do I expect anything to come "easy" or be a sure bet...I'm still learning the mechanics of our winter weather around here, and this is the first weak-mod niño I've actively followed...Each year I've learned something new (with the last two years being the harshest lessons, lol). Still tempering expectations... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 Thanksgiving is best with a sweater and a roaring fire, along with a strong ale to warm you up. Plus the oven and stove is going heating up the house. This windows open birds singing 70 degrees crap sounds more like Easter to me. Thanksgiving is not a holiday to spend on the patio unless you live in the South or LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 Sunny and mid 40s works for me for Thanksgiving, with temps falling into the upper 30s as the sun is setting at about 430 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 7 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Thanksgiving is best with a sweater and a roaring fire, along with a strong ale to warm you up. Plus the oven and stove is going heating up the house. This windows open birds singing 70 degrees crap sounds more like Easter to me. Thanksgiving is not a holiday to spend on the patio unless you live in the South or LA. For once, we agree on something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 8 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Thanksgiving is best with a sweater and a roaring fire, along with a strong ale to warm you up. Plus the oven and stove is going heating up the house. This windows open birds singing 70 degrees crap sounds more like Easter to me. Thanksgiving is not a holiday to spend on the patio unless you live in the South or LA. You had me at strong ale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: 12z FV3 and 18z GFS start to tease us with an early December threat. Obviously well supported by the pattern. I’ve been watching that period myself! Hoping it comes to fruition. This has been wild to start the close proximity of winter off on the right foot. Been a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: I'll be in western CT over the holiday. Would love to have temps in the teens and hopefully a few snow flurries to create the perfect setting. What part of Western CT Bob? Litchfield County or Fairfield County area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 3 hours ago, BristowWx said: Just looked at 18z for Thanksgiving and it’s above 50. I guess worlds apart from Euro Dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 I’ll be in Deep Creek tomorrow through next weekend. Bring on the cold Thanksgiving (and hopefully upslope). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Sunny and mid 40s works for me for Thanksgiving, with temps falling into the upper 30s as the sun is setting at about 430 PM. Perfect. We always sit around the firepit sipping eggnog and beer after the cowboys game, so I like it chilly, but not too cold. This year I'm planning on putting a TV on the patio and watching the game by the fire after dinner is done. Definitely hoping for agreeable weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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