leo2000 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 2 hours ago, cbmclean said: Well, if you inverted one of them, they would be kind of similar. I would be tempted to discard the FV out of hand. I think we know that that sort of coast-to-coast cold anomaly is pretty much physically impossible. You can be coast-to-coast warm, but not cold. Unless you have a strong negative EP0 and a strong negative PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Totally agree. This is likely the only realistic scenario for the MA to score a minor to moderate frozen event with the advertised pattern, and with the parade of shortwaves there will be chances. Beats cold and dry right? Much more common for a minor event to produce during the first half of Dec anyways. I don't even remember the last time we had a traditional coastal the first 2 weeks of Dec. Well... we've had some coastals but they are almost always rain. Ensembles are reminding me of Dec 09 right now. The pac jet was active during the first 2-3 weeks of Dec iirc before a more classic nino pattern set up later in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Not a bad look heading into the middle of December. I'd take my chances with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 9 hours ago, cbmclean said: Visitor from the SE forum here. I am obviously uneducated, but I was curious, even with the BN heights in Alaska, isn't it also showing forecasting BN heights in the East. And isn't that a good thing? I could write a 10 page reply here but I'll give you a little tidbit to think about... The jet rides up and over ridges and rounds the base of troughs. When you have a trough around AK, the jet is rounding the base and heading inland. Meaning pac air floods Canada which is our source region for cold. A trough in the east favors below normal temps but when the airmass originated from the Pacific it's not very cold to start and then it modifies as it travels our way over several days. When the jet rides over the top of a ridge over AK it helps build cold high pressure just to the east of the ridge in western Canada. It also helps draw polar air southward in our source region of Canada. It makes a big difference too. Not just 5-10 degrees but as much as 30+ degrees between the two scenarios. Both our areas require below normal temps to snow in the heart of winter. We also require well below normal temps to snow early and late in the season. Areas like new England or the northern plains can get snow with just "normal" temps for those regions. That doesn't work here. We need deep cold air diving down from Canada to produce snowfall. One of the best ways to get that is to have a ridge over or near AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 18z GEFS was improved in small but important ways in the long range. Less troughing in AK and more NAO ridging. 18z op did have a fun active look. I’d like to see the euro pick up on the Friday deal. It wants nothing to do with it while the GFS seems to be giving us an improving solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 A little ridiculous? Or fits the pattern? Not too often you see even an op run show pretty much every sqft of the lower 48 below normal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 What a weird thing if this -PNA verifies, expect the -EPO to strength to a really strong +anoamly, and model are picking up on this I think a few days later andover the PNA region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 gfs now gives us mix to rain Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 icon snow to rain but it accumulates. GFs starts precip way too late. anyway..just noise for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 1 hour ago, Ji said: gfs now gives us mix to rain Friday The first of a train of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 The first of a train of storms. Rainstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 The GFS, CMS, FV3 are trying to break surface ridge in two now. This opens up Gulf moisture. Need parent high to remain strong like 00z Euro solution, that at least now sees a storm 12/1. Yesterday not enough energy and moisture, this morning too much. If the truth is in the middle we are good. Time for another cup, this is way cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 6 hours ago, Ji said: Rainstorms The PAC is running the show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 14 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: The PAC is running the show. Rain in November, that's bold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Train of rain is the 6z GFS! At least we are still seeing storms! Getting the cold to align is a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 14 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Train of rain is the 6z GFS! At least we are still seeing storms! Getting the cold to align is a problem. Willing to wager when the cold comes we go dry and suppressed. Not that this is really going out on a limb or anything but it is virtually inevitable. However, if we can get the cold snaps even with suppression we should cash in as the rubber band snaps back, so to speak ie the pattern relaxes. Again, nothing earth shattering there but people need to remember cold outbreaks usually dont mean snowstorms.....its when it relaxes we tend to cash in. This season is going to require extreme patience by some imo.....the outlook I posted in the other subforum is leaning towards a cutter type of pattern overall so people are going to freak when we r getting cutter upon cutter then it goes cold and dry. Patience is going to be more important than usual this season especially given the early Nov tease we had. I think alot of folks are expecting wall to wall wintry weather based on this alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Willing to wager when the cold comes we go dry and suppressed. Not that this is really going out on a limb or anything but it is virtually inevitable. However, if we can get the cold snaps even with suppression we should cash in as the rubber band snaps back, so to speak ie the pattern relaxes. Again, nothing earth shattering there but people need to remember cold outbreaks usually dont mean snowstorms.....its when it relaxes we tend to cash in. This season is going to require extreme patience by some imo.....the outlook I posted in the other subforum is leaning towards a cutter type of pattern overall so people are going to freak when we r getting cutter upon cutter then it goes cold and dry. Patience is going to be more important than usual this season especially given the early Nov tease we had. I think alot of folks are expecting wall to wall wintry weather based on this alone. To achieve some of the robust seasonal snowfall forecasts by some outfits we will need to cash in on both light and moderate systems as well. One or even two warning events will not make the grade when some calls are for 30 inches at BWI and 30 to 40 at Philly. However, if anything the continuous stream of moisture looks to continue and many seasonal models as of the last updates were depicting a boundary South of us , so over running type storms in about three weeks would work well, as well as Miller A's and Miller B's. Wonder if we get into a pattern of robust Northern systems in time as well, like we did several years ago. Those that produce for the BWI area are rare, ( little moisture ),but maybe that too is possible later in the season. If anything, it is great too see the continuous expansion South of Snowfall. Also, the big dive down in the AO and the NAO in November, as you know good signs for the winter. Another positive is that the EPS is having issues at the higher lattitudes and I would think it will forecast soon a more favorable outlook at the pole and in the NW territories. Also, I read the CFS is undere estimating strat warming at long leads, so when you see it forecasting a month out for a significant warming expect the actual warming to be even greater. ( and it fits the background state as well so far ) Time will tell, but so far no real issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 I guess we have to remember what the date is. It's November 25th and we're thru Thanksgiving and we're still losing the climo battle, which we should. And we'll continue to lose that battle until close to Christmas. Prior to that, it's all foreplay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Exactly its way too early. Our Winters start after Xmas. Anything prior is a fairly rare bonus. Lets not get carried away with blockbuster expectations. Of course lthe last few years, of things just not "breaking right", is still fresh in everyone's mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 If we are to cash in a big pot this winter, then we better win some hands in December. I see nothing but rain and cold rain so far. Maybe the 2nd half will turn in our favor. But, the reality is that we are due to waste a favorable winter setup. I went BN for the contest, though that is not going out on much of a limb for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 This doesn’t sound favorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 10 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: This doesn’t sound favorable Something I've noticed with his tweets...all he seems to ever look at or even consider is the PV. And then he acts like it's a 1:1 correlation to snow here. Sometimes the pattern looks crap and he is hyping a PV disruption that's having no effect on our chances of winter weather. And he jumps all over the place. One day "deep winter" is coming then it's winter cancel. And is he seriously using the op run at day 15 to worry people right now??? I honestly don't know how to take him seriously. thibgs look ambiguous right now. I could see one of these waves give us something if they time up right. But it would probably be a minor event. In the long range there are hints the North Pacific wants to go to crap. The Atlantic side and the AO seem to stay fairly friendly. Hopefully the happenings near Alaska are transient and we could quickly snap into a favorable pattern from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Something I've noticed with his tweets...all he seems to ever look at or even consider is the PV. And then he acts like it's a 1:1 correlation to snow here. Sometimes the pattern looks crap and he is hyping a PV disruption that's having no effect on our chances of winter weather. And he jumps all over the place. One day "deep winter" is coming then it's winter cancel. And is he seriously using the op run at day 15 to worry people right now??? I honestly don't know how to take him seriously. thibgs look ambiguous right now. I could see one of these waves give us something if they time up right. But it would probably be a minor event. In the long range there are hints the North Pacific wants to go to crap. The Atlantic side and the AO seem to stay fairly friendly. Hopefully the happenings near Alaska are transient and we could quickly snap into a favorable pattern from there. Thats funny. I noticed that too. I have seen him post minutes apart that deep winter coming, and then warmer is possible. Judah is covering all the options, but that approach at times can be annoying. I am sure one outcome will happen. Maybe it is time to just let the cards play out. It is way too early in the season to devote a lot of time into the long range when we are not even in climo. Just watch some football today and I hope Isotherm is correct about later December :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Volatility.................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 @psuhoffman I've noticed the same with Cohen over the years. He's so fixated on the strat and treats it like a binary end all be all with winter wx in the mid latitudes. I don't get it. For every example that shows the correlation there's another that shows the exact opposite. Not saying the state of the pv isnt important though. When it's good it's really good and vice versa but that's only when the strat and trop act in unison. Which imho- is the minority of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 12z data, it seems the possibility of Friday snow is past. Now it is time to talk about rain. All rain, all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 1 hour ago, frd said: Volatility.................... It appears the newer run pushes the idea of a split flow more too. If we can get the southern stream to do its thing and tap into the GOM, that would BODE well, provided it's not too suppressed of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Check out the d14 AO verification. Gefs is busting high in the long range. This is the exact opposite of the last 3-4 years. We're moving into prime time for the AO to be a meaningful long lead indicator. If the gefs keeps busting high then good things are probably about to start happening no too far in future. Like in 2 weeks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Check out the d14 AO verification. Gefs is busting high in the long range. This is the exact opposite of the last 3-4 years. We're moving into prime time for the AO to be a meaningful long lead indicator. If the gefs keeps busting high then good things are probably about to start happening no too far in future. Like in 2 weeks... Ride it till it's broke bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Check out the d14 AO verification. Gefs is busting high in the long range. This is the exact opposite of the last 3-4 years. We're moving into prime time for the AO to be a meaningful long lead indicator. If the gefs keeps busting high then good things are probably about to start happening no too far in future. Like in 2 weeks... What you said there is significant! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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