November/December Medium/Long Range Disco

[CAPE]

10 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Imo the pattern the next 15 days looks "fine". The problem is fine doesn't cut November 23-dec 7th. We need damn near perfect. There are some minor flaws. Transient ridging at times. Disconnect between nao and epo. PAC jet crashing in at the wrong time. But even given that we could luck into a threat. There are enough hits in the ensembles to say it's not a shutout no shot pattern. There is a risk of a wave around nov 30th behind the would up system that fujiwaras to our north. It's getting squashed on the guidance now but it's there. It could turn into a minor event of the confluence relaxes some. After that I wouldn't be shocked to see some front end ice or snow threat evolve for the system that likely will cut in early December. Then after that there are a couple waves in the long range that have a small shot if the timing is right.  

It's looking likely we don't score anything significant in the forseeable future. But it's not impossible. And the forseeable future only takes us into early December. And the minor flaws making it difficult now would be easier to overcome in mid winter. We are not seeing any long term propensity for ridging in the east. If anything warm ups are temporary with troughinh wanting to come back quickly. The mjo looks to by cycling exactly how we want.  The PV keeps getting beat around everytime it tries to consolidate. We are now seeing hints of the nao going negative again toward day 15.   I still love what I'm seeing in a long term view. 

It's November 22. We're not staring at weeks on end of 65 degrees like most years!  Even in a good nino year snow before January is hit or miss. We had nothing before January in 1965, 1977, and 1987 and all 3 went on to be blockbuster winters. In 1963 and 2009 it didn't get snowy until right before xmas not early December. And 2009/10 if that one storm had gone wrong...bad timing or suppression then we wouldn't have gotten snowy until late January and February.   

Until I see an actual reason to worry I'll take comfort in a decent pattern that later in winter would likely produce some results and just be patient. 

I am not sure where all the talk of worry and panic even came from lol. I saw one legit minor 'panic' post that got trolled a tad.

Like you, I see nothing too unexpected with how the pattern is evolving. The activeness of the PAC jet maybe wasn't modeled well going back 10 days or 2 weeks- when the ensembles started throwing up these "classic" MA winter storm looks for early Dec, and we all went into premature weenie mode. Or it got downplayed some because of the super awesome modeled HL/NA look. Surprise, as we get closer, what looks to be reality is not quite the same.

The -NAO (eyeball, not the modeled, technical measurement) has been pretty underwhelming IMO. There have been multiple transient episodes, which tend to retrograde/morph into upper ridging centered over/south of Hudson bay. And ofc NA blocking has less impact in the fall, and can easily be nullified by say a less than favorable E/NPAC pattern. I agree the overall LR pattern looks fine. I expect the NAO will mostly hang around neutral for a while, and the AO may be heading that way too, but suspect it will head back into negative territory.

I have been sort of 'ignoring' the PAC side, but looking at the LR my focus now is on the Aleutian low. Want to see that thing set up in a good spot and become a semi-permanent feature. Getting back to the NAO.. legit, sustained NA blocking during a Nino is favored during the back half of winter, so I suspect we will see more blocking episodes from around mid Jan forward- and that is when it can really 'work' to lock in a trough and set up a favorable storm track.

[Scud]

A little something for those fighting the NAO blues....

[CAPE]

40 minutes ago, Scud said:

A little something for those fighting the NAO blues....

 

We could still score something during that time frame. That period is not dead- its not like we have some awful, shutout pattern. Looks like there will be vortices shedding and rotating down bringing transient cold shots, and the PAC is active- just need some good timing and a bit more luck than usual given it is still early.

[aldie 22]

Seasonal change can play tricks on your eyes. Just give me a seasonally cold day to get my tree and a pattern that isn't looking hostile as we head into the latter part of December and I'm happy 

[Wonderdog]

46 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

We could still score something during that time frame. That period is not dead- its not like we have some awful, shutout pattern. Looks like there will be vortices shedding and rotating down bringing transient cold shots, and the PAC is active- just need some good timing and a bit more luck than usual given it is still early.

The period around December 1st seems to have a few instances where there are systems trying to form south of us but don't quite get the job done. Could be the time for us to luck out possibly. I have to remember to stop looking past day ten on the models.

[showmethesnow]

Think I will just throw this up for those that may be panicking. EPO goes beast mode on the pv and we are seeing a split in the troposphere with a big red blob of higher heights over the pole. Looking all the way up to the strat we see a major displacement of the pv as well. Needless to say this a very good thing. Will mention that the EPS is wishy washy on this so there is always that. But the GEFs has handled the longer range patterns, especially in the upper latitudes, much better so I will favor it at this point. If this plays out as shown I would expect that we see a major dump of cold into the central and eastern US as the EPO builds towards the pole. At this point we do see negative departures showing up but not to the degree that I would expect to see. 

 

As I have been saying for quite awhile, I don't think it is a matter of IF but WHEN we when start getting hammered with winter weather. And I think it will be much sooner then those that are looking after the new year.

[showmethesnow]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

We could still score something during that time frame. That period is not dead- its not like we have some awful, shutout pattern. Looks like there will be vortices shedding and rotating down bringing transient cold shots, and the PAC is active- just need some good timing and a bit more luck than usual given it is still early.

A little quicker departure of the coming NE low which is causing suppression or just a little greater separation between the different energy coming through to our south could mean a world of difference. Could be a case where we get into the mid range or possibly even into the short range and something pops up as the models see even a half day timing difference between these different features. Not saying a block buster storm, because the overall pattern really doesn't support that at this time, but a minor or even somewhat modest event I don't think is off the table at this point.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

A little quicker departure of the coming NE low which is causing suppression or just a little greater separation between the different energy coming through to our south could mean a world of difference. Could be a case where we get into the mid range or possibly even into the short range and something pops up as the models see even a half day timing difference between these different features. Not saying a block buster storm, because the overall pattern really doesn't support that at this time, but a minor or even somewhat modest event I don't think is off the table at this point.

Yes. Maybe something like the FV was depicting on the 6z run is how it could work. A fresh shot of cold behind a cutter and then a trailing piece of energy that tracks underneath, producing a modest event.

[CAPE]

43 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Think I will just throw this up for those that may be panicking. EPO goes beast mode on the pv and we are seeing a split in the troposphere with a big red blob of higher heights over the pole. Looking all the way up to the strat we see a major displacement of the pv as well. Needless to say this a very good thing. Will mention that the EPS is wishy washy on this so there is always that. But the GEFs has handled the longer range patterns, especially in the upper latitudes, much better so I will favor it at this point. If this plays out as shown I would expect that we see a major dump of cold into the central and eastern US as the EPO builds towards the pole. At this point we do see negative departures showing up but not to the degree that I would expect to see. 

As I have been saying for quite awhile, I don't think it is a matter of IF but WHEN we when start getting hammered with winter weather. And I think it will be much sooner then those that are looking after the new year.

Somewhere around Dec 18th maybe.  

 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Somewhere around Dec 18th maybe.  

 

A lot of people threw around 1963/4 as a good analog. That got snowy right before Christmas. 

[Scud]

37 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

A little quicker departure of the coming NE low which is causing suppression or just a little greater separation between the different energy coming through to our south could mean a world of difference. Could be a case where we get into the mid range or possibly even into the short range and something pops up as the models see even a half day timing difference between these different features. Not saying a block buster storm, because the overall pattern really doesn't support that at this time, but a minor or even somewhat modest event I don't think is off the table at this point.

This is the part where Goldilocks meets the bears. The key.

[Scud]

12z GFS still exhibits hyper volatility.

CMS we get "Fringed," nothing but cirrus clouds....

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

You dont have to look in fantasy land for potential possible light to mod events.  This day 7 ish timeframe with a possible  piece of energy following our departing ne low could deliver a chance imo.This is what I'll be keeping 1 eye on. Unless your solely looking KU . Little events pad stats 

Watching this period also. I dont dislike this look at all....50/50 low, flat Caribbean ridge, energy in the plains undercutting riding N of the GL, more energy sitting in the GOM, ridge popping out West at the right time as an intense ULL crashes into the West Coast. This is an active pattern we are entering which will favor plenty of chances. Most will probably crap the bed but this is the type of setup that we could all get a surprise payout.

[frd]

2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Somewhere around Dec 18th maybe.  

 

What are your thoughts on the up and down and inconsistent Euro weeklies? Seems they are struggling to me.  They sure did shift warmer. 

Maybe it might be best to go with the Euro seasonal and the favorable upcoming MJO.  I have seen in the past 21 days the weeklies shift, and at times underplay or overplay certain key players and indices.  

[CAPE]

29 minutes ago, frd said:

What are your thoughts on the up and down and inconsistent Euro weeklies? Seems they are struggling to me.  They sure did shift warmer. 

Maybe it might be best to go with the Euro seasonal and the favorable upcoming MJO.  I have seen in the past 21 days the weeklies shift, and at times underplay or overplay certain key players and indices.  

Yeah I just looked at them this morning, and I agree. Sort of all over the place with the key features throughout the run, and like the last few runs, a bit ambiguous overall. Not awful, but very little clarity, so not very useful to me. I am not going to put much more thought into it than that lol. Next!

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

It was a short lived -NAO, 5-6 days when it's done. It will be hard for this day ~8 storm to be rain with a ridge building in the Arctic and Alaska. Day 14-15 -PNA isn't a "in tune" signal. will probably verify as +PNA. I still contest that we can't get real -NAO without Stratospheric warming. 

[showmethesnow]

For those that live and die by each op run. Probably not worth the effort right now for the mid and long range. Just looking at something as simple as the temps makes it painfully obvious.

Below is the day 9 GFS

 

Now we see day 9 on the GEFS

 

Think that is a stark difference? Just check out day 16 of the GFS.

 

Now we have day 16 of the GEFS.

 

And we are seeing the GFS and the GEFS begin diverging as soon as day 6 immediately after our upcoming storm departs. Now the GFS may be right but the smart money will probably follow the GEFS for the mid and long range until further notice.

[frd]

9 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

For those that live and die by each op run. Probably not worth the effort right now for the mid and long range. Just looking at something as simple as the temps makes it painfully obvious.

Below is the day 9 GFS

 

Now we see day 9 on the GEFS

 

Think that is a stark difference? Just check out day 16 of the GFS.

 

Now we have day 16 of the GEFS.

 

And we are seeing the GFS and the GEFS begin diverging as soon as day 6 immediately after our upcoming storm departs. Now the GFS may be right but the smart money will probably follow the GEFS for the mid and long range until further notice.

Yeah, models are having a difficult time to say the least. MJO progression would seem to favor the colder outcomes . 

I read from another forum that sometimes the models might want to go to a colder solution in the long range, but in time will correct to a more traditional El Nino December analog average, meaning normal to above.   

However, even if true, the evolution very well might fit some roll over forecasts of a cold December 1 to 14 th, then a warm up to December 20 to 25th  and then a rapid turn to colder again.  I guess anything is to be taken with a grain of salt. 

On a side note, there remains a lot of play on the PV so, those who are going with a overall cold and stormy December might still get that outcome , and if so, maybe that will show up in a week on the models. No easy job here forecasting December.   

 

[showmethesnow]

12 minutes ago, frd said:

Yeah, models are having a difficult time to say the least. MJO progression would seem to favor the colder outcomes . 

I read from another forum that sometimes the models might want to go to a colder solution in the long range, but in time will correct to a more traditional El Nino December analog average, meaning normal to above.   

However, even if true, the evolution very well might fit some roll over forecasts of a cold December 1 to 14 th, then a warm up to December 20 to 25th  and then a rapid turn to colder again.  I guess anything is to be taken with a grain of salt. 

On a side note, there remains a lot of play on the PV so, those who are going with a overall cold and stormy December might still get that outcome , and if so, maybe that will show up in a week on the models. No easy job here forecasting December.   

 

First time I have heard that. Guess there may be some merit behind that. Something to keep an eye on at least.

Favor the colder solutions myself. Besides the MJO, the run to run variability of the ops have been fairly extreme which makes them highly questionable. Then factor in that the ensembles as well as most the op runs are now keying on a EPO ridge building and extending toward, if not even to the pole, of which this feature quite often favors cold air dumps into the CONUS especially in conjunction with a +PNA. As mentioned this morning I would not be surprised if we start seeing highly anomalous cold start popping up in the extended as the models really start picking up on this. All in all I think most things at this time favor a colder outcome.

 

[frd]

12 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

First time I have heard that. Guess there may be some merit behind that. Something to keep an eye on at least.

Favor the colder solutions myself. Besides the MJO, the run to run variability of the ops have been fairly extreme which makes them highly questionable. Then factor in that the ensembles as well as most the op runs are now keying on a EPO ridge building and extending toward, if not even to the pole, of which this feature quite often favors cold air dumps into the CONUS especially in conjunction with a +PNA. As mentioned this morning I would not be surprised if we start seeing highly anomalous cold start popping up in the extended as the models really start picking up on this. All in all I think most things at this time favor a colder outcome.

 

What you are saying could very well happen. I think the too, that the colder risks outweigh the warmish ones. 

Also, some crazy cold air forecasted to deepen and spread out over time  in Russia,  maybe at some point we tap into this with the right set-up. That indeed would be nasty.  

We have this going on as well. So maybe the displacement if that is what is forecasted shifts coldest air to Russia and then late month we get the so called lag effect ( 3 to 5 weeks )

 

 

[CAPE]

@frd

 

 

Courtesy of  ORH_wxman on the skill of EPS weekiles- a few years old obv, but gives a general idea.

 

 

Underscores the generally low skill of the weeklies for weeks 3-4. Essentially each run is going to go the way of the 0z run it is initialized on. I try to glean some clarity for the overall pattern going forward by looking at 2-3 consecutive runs, but lately that is of little value as it is all over the place. 

[Maestrobjwa]

So in other words...tune in next Friday to see if it's gotten any clearer? Lol

[CAPE]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

So in other words...tune in next Friday to see it's gotten any clearer? Lol

Monday actually  

[Cobalt]

GFS has that light system for the 30th. Essentially nothing more than a dusting, but enough to keep interested, especially in November

[BristowWx]

13 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

GFS has that light system for the 30th. Essentially nothing more than a dusting, but enough to keep interested, especially in November

November is December this year.  

[Wonderdog]

14 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

November is December this year.  

November is the December to Remember!

[poolz1]

Both GFS and FV3 with a positive trend for the D7 system.  Little more of a discrete wave with some minor ridging in front... @losetoa6 storm!  Hopefully trends will continue...not too far from something to track.

 

[Scud]

 That system

[poolz1]

6 minutes ago, Scud said:

 That system

 

What system, Chuck? 

[Bob Chill]

I'm not expecting any kind of sig event through the first 10-15 days of Dec. Anything strong and organized is most likely going to be more wet than white. Which is completely normal in any December. First half of the month rarely if ever has a widespread warning level event. Still a big fight with temps due to climo. Advisory and/or mixed events are usually the best our area can eek out. 

I do believe the chances are above normal for a decent event sometime during Dec though. I also believe the chances of widespread panic are above normal as the days go by with no blizzards showing up on long range ops.