CAPE Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 32 minutes ago, Amped said: Not impressed with the last several Op runs. The Pacific isn't cooperating. And teleconnections don't work as well this early in the season. Enjoy the unseasonably cold Thanksgiving, then the mild rain this weekend, followed by fair and seasonably chilly weather next week. It's fall. It probably won't snow in the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Amped does this crap every winter. Been doing it for over a decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 2 hours ago, Wonderdog said: FV-3 has a coastal transfer on 12/3-4 but mostly or all rain for us. Needs to get off the coast then maybe... CMS has an interesting solution. Temps at this time are 0C at BWI. Could be the mother of all CADs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Looking good for the Winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: You can feel the panic in some already...classic You rang sir? Actually I am pretty fat dumb and happy today. Booze helps but so does the promise of a pretty solid pattern. No panic yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 For the record I am not canceling winter, or the upcoming pattern. Just playing devils advocate and trying to point out the negatives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 1 hour ago, Amped said: Fir the record I am not canceling winter, or the upcoming pattern. Just playing devils advocate and trying to point out the negatives. I think we average like 3" of snow in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 1 hour ago, frd said: Funny thing is, we could beat climo snowfall in just a short period of time. An active cold and stormy period later in the season could deliver several big hitters. I know many were thinking December would deliver, and it may, but I feel we need to temper expectations. Almost wondering whether the best part of the month, December that is , happens later, well after December 5th. Interesting to note the extreme cold forecasted to deepen and pool over Siberia. A few years back there was talk of a so called bath tub slosh effect. Where as some mets mention this pattern of extreme cold up there would move South slosh like a bath tub, so seeing that you could expect a cold air outbreak in our area some 3 weeks later. Speculation at this point. Believe it was Bastardi that coined the bathtub effect a few years back and that was in reference to an EPO ridge/+PNA setting up and delivering that cold by means of cross polar flow. When I see the tendency for high latitude blocking now I would think maybe the odds favor that scenario playing out here as well? So maybe a mid to late December cold outbreak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 What a Thanksgiving day massacre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Just now, Ji said: What a Thanksgiving day massacre It’s over. Enjoy the last cold day this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: It’s over. Enjoy the last cold day this winter. This sucks. Thanksgiving cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 29 minutes ago, Amped said: For the record I am not canceling winter, or the upcoming pattern. Just playing devils advocate and trying to point out the negatives. Definitely a change of pace for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 2 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: You can feel the panic in some already...classic People need to understand... we won't know for 2 weeks. If it sucks in 2 weeks then we can move on to next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: yea it takes first Storm further south and east. High a little further West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I think we average like 3" of snow in December. Shut up Chuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 36 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: People need to understand... we won't know for 2 weeks. If it sucks in 2 weeks then we can move on to next winter. Coming off of back to back fail years (or 3 years if ya don't count the one hit blizzard of 2016)...patience is gonna be even shorter than usual, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Yeah, I guess. I don't like being sidelined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 3 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: You can feel the panic in some already...classic A lot of the analogs, including the good ones, didn't really get going in terms of snowfall until January. I'm just glad we are quickly eliminating some of the total dud analogs by having an early season snowfall and a lack of a raging positive AO. Anything we get in terms of snow before xmas is always bonus to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 5 hours ago, showmethesnow said: Believe it was Bastardi that coined the bathtub effect a few years back and that was in reference to an EPO ridge/+PNA setting up and delivering that cold by means of cross polar flow. When I see the tendency for high latitude blocking now I would think maybe the odds favor that scenario playing out here as well? So maybe a mid to late December cold outbreak? I’m pretty sure the “bathtub effect” kicks in when there’s a +AO, raging Pacific firehose, and uber-flexed WAR. Drop a toaster in the bathtub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 A WinterWxLuvr special.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 1 hour ago, mattie g said: I’m pretty sure the “bathtub effect” kicks in when there’s a +AO, raging Pacific firehose, and uber-flexed WAR. Drop a toaster in the bathtub. Maybe I am mis-remembering then. Could have sworn the first time I heard the phrase was Bastardi some 15-20 years ago when he was promising us Vodka Cold. And he was referencing it to sloshing over the pole to our side of the globe. Tried to pull up some of his old Accuweather blogs but had no luck. But I did find another reference of the bathtub effect on twitter by Bastardi https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/805817012480049152/photo/1 and the 500 mb he throws up has strong ridging into Alaska with a cross polar flow from Russia into the CONUS. Lacking a +PNA so we see it dumping into the west initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Imo the pattern the next 15 days looks "fine". The problem is fine doesn't cut November 23-dec 7th. We need damn near perfect. There are some minor flaws. Transient ridging at times. Disconnect between nao and epo. PAC jet crashing in at the wrong time. But even given that we could luck into a threat. There are enough hits in the ensembles to say it's not a shutout no shot pattern. There is a risk of a wave around nov 30th behind the would up system that fujiwaras to our north. It's getting squashed on the guidance now but it's there. It could turn into a minor event of the confluence relaxes some. After that I wouldn't be shocked to see some front end ice or snow threat evolve for the system that likely will cut in early December. Then after that there are a couple waves in the long range that have a small shot if the timing is right. It's looking likely we don't score anything significant in the forseeable future. But it's not impossible. And the forseeable future only takes us into early December. And the minor flaws making it difficult now would be easier to overcome in mid winter. We are not seeing any long term propensity for ridging in the east. If anything warm ups are temporary with troughinh wanting to come back quickly. The mjo looks to by cycling exactly how we want. The PV keeps getting beat around everytime it tries to consolidate. We are now seeing hints of the nao going negative again toward day 15. I still love what I'm seeing in a long term view. It's November 22. We're not staring at weeks on end of 65 degrees like most years! Even in a good nino year snow before January is hit or miss. We had nothing before January in 1965, 1977, and 1987 and all 3 went on to be blockbuster winters. In 1963 and 2009 it didn't get snowy until right before xmas not early December. And 2009/10 if that one storm had gone wrong...bad timing or suppression then we wouldn't have gotten snowy until late January and February. Until I see an actual reason to worry I'll take comfort in a decent pattern that later in winter would likely produce some results and just be patient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Hmmmmmmmm...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 8 minutes ago, Scraff said: Hmmmmmmmm...... Great Movie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Impressive lake effect event next week. Doesn't see any threats for us unless the PV trends way north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Looks like a good NW flow event 84 hrs out. West facing slopes in WVa, MD. The roads may cave... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 DT (WxRisk) https://youtu.be/gK1PEY1F1rQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 1 hour ago, Rtd208 said: DT (WxRisk) https://youtu.be/gK1PEY1F1rQ Great breakdown. Look forward to seeing how it plays out. That 00z GFS is worth watching, much better senerio. Good show.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Return of +NAO on models, I like it. Fits the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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