November/December Medium/Long Range Disco

[WinterWxLuvr]

In reference to a post above, it doesn’t matter if a storm cuts (as long as it cuts east of Cincinnati) if there’s enough cold air. Good winter storms don’t have to be coastals.

[JakkelWx]

It looks like the CFS DJF run from today goes bonkers with a huge +PNA and -NAO... AO looks pretty negative as well. Would like more of a split flow in the SW but i take and run for now.

[BristowWx]

Just now, JakkelWx said:

It looks like the CFS DJF run from today goes bonkers with a huge +PNA and -NAO... AO looks pretty negative as well. Probably need more of a split flow in the SW, but i take and run for now

Yes I believe you are correct.  I would run with that and think that would yield a memorable winter. 

[Amped]

34 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

In reference to a post above, it doesn’t matter if a storm cuts (as long as it cuts east of Cincinnati) if there’s enough cold air. Good winter storms don’t have to be coastals.

Not for us western folks at least.

[EastCoast NPZ]

53 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

In reference to a post above, it doesn’t matter if a storm cuts (as long as it cuts east of Cincinnati) if there’s enough cold air. Good winter storms don’t have to be coastals.

I almost prefer that scenario as it eliminates the risk of us getting fringed, staring out the window at our cirrus clouds while we get to read about roads caving all over DC-Balt and the eastern shore.

[BristowWx]

Just now, EastCoast NPZ said:

I almost prefer that scenario as it eliminates the risk of us getting fringed, staring out the window at our cirrus clouds while we get to read about roads caving all over DC-Balt and the eastern shore.

That scenario doesn’t come up all that often.  

[Thanatos_I_Am]

3 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Gefs sure  likes the Dec 2nd timeframe this run. A lot of low  concentration for 10+ out . 

 

 

EPS was hinting at this too. Banana high, lows off the coast etc.

[yoda]

00z GFS looks tasty... at hr 384

 

[Scud]

3 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I almost prefer that scenario as it eliminates the risk of us getting fringed, staring out the window at our cirrus clouds while we get to read about roads caving all over DC-Balt and the eastern shore.

Priceless...

[Scud]

The return flow system this Saturday has been mentioned. The latest ZR forcast, from NAM and GEM. The GFS has nothing. Something to look at while we suffer the midrange blues.

[CAPE]

8 hours ago, Amped said:

Not for us western folks at least.

Yeah that doesn't work for the coastal plain the majority of the time.

[CAPE]

11 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Signal for a "cold" storm has been sporadic, but generally I think we can forget November. Its been looking like Dec 3 (or later) will be the next legit shot on the means for a few days now. Even that might be a little soon, as the NA ridging looks to break down, while the PAC should be starting to trend more favorable. Wouldn't surprise me if its the 7th or later before there is a real shot at widespread frozen.

EPS has trended towards a deep. broad trough out west and into the central US, with some ridging along the east coast for the first few days of Dec. NAO is positive and the PAC less than ideal during this time. East coast would be pretty mild for a few days if this verified. Pattern evolves to more favorable towards Dec 7. At that point the NAO looks neutral, there is a +PNA, and trough is in the east. GEFS keeps generally lower heights in the east during this time frame. It will be interesting to see how things trend in future model cycles. 

[Ji]

EPS has trended towards a deep. broad trough out west and into the central US, with some ridging along the east coast for the first few days of Dec. NAO is positive and the PAC less than ideal during this time. East coast would be pretty mild for a few days if this verified. Pattern evolves to more favorable towards Dec 7. At that point the NAO looks neutral, there is a +PNA, and trough is in the east. GEFS keeps generally lower heights in the east during this time frame. It will be interesting to see how things trend in future model cycles. 

So it looks like we are gonna waste another -nao

[CAPE]

22 minutes ago, Ji said:

52 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

EPS has trended towards a deep. broad trough out west and into the central US, with some ridging along the east coast for the first few days of Dec. NAO is positive and the PAC less than ideal during this time. East coast would be pretty mild for a few days if this verified. Pattern evolves to more favorable towards Dec 7. At that point the NAO looks neutral, there is a +PNA, and trough is in the east. GEFS keeps generally lower heights in the east during this time frame. It will be interesting to see how things trend in future model cycles. 

So it looks like we are gonna waste another -nao

Pretty common not to score anything with early blocking. PAC jet also looks to be in overdrive. Better chances of seeing meaningful blocking later in winter, esp in a Nino. Until then I suspect we see more episodes with transient NA ridging, and as we get deeper into Dec and into Jan, especially if we have a favorable EPO/PNA, the -NAO periods wont be wasted.

[JakkelWx]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

EPS has trended towards a deep. broad trough out west and into the central US, with some ridging along the east coast for the first few days of Dec. NAO is positive and the PAC less than ideal during this time. East coast would be pretty mild for a few days if this verified. Pattern evolves to more favorable towards Dec 7. At that point the NAO looks neutral, there is a +PNA, and trough is in the east. GEFS keeps generally lower heights in the east during this time frame. It will be interesting to see how things trend in future model cycles. 

The EPS seems to be wrong because the MJO is heading through phases 8 and 1... so it must be an error

The model wants to cut into the block which doesn't look right to me.

[Wonderdog]

10 hours ago, BristowWx said:

That scenario doesn’t come up all that often.  

Agree. If you don't have a CAD setup, anything cutting  to our west usually leaves us crying to our mommies. Why can't  storms have a clockwise rotation?

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

The EPS seems to be wrong because the MJO is heading through phases 8 and 1... so it must be an error

The model wants to cut into the block which doesn't look right to me.

 

 

There isn't really a NA block on that panel. More of a flat, full latitude ridge between the western trough and a trough near Greenland. Now the EPS may not be correct with its depiction of the longwave pattern and how it evolves, but that remains to be seen.

[showmethesnow]

2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah that doesn't work for the coastal plain the majority of the time.

You must be new here. Just so you know, it is all about MBY in here. 

 

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

EPS has trended towards a deep. broad trough out west and into the central US, with some ridging along the east coast for the first few days of Dec. NAO is positive and the PAC less than ideal during this time. East coast would be pretty mild for a few days if this verified. Pattern evolves to more favorable towards Dec 7. At that point the NAO looks neutral, there is a +PNA, and trough is in the east. GEFS keeps generally lower heights in the east during this time frame. It will be interesting to see how things trend in future model cycles. 

Not sure I would really buy wholeheartedly into the EPS in its longer range. IMO it has been struggling quite a bit especially compared to the GEFS and that hasn't been exactly stellar in recent runs in regards to the longer range. Seems that the Eps has been overplaying the northern stream dump into the west which of course is flipping the troughing and ridging through the CONUS. At this point I think we are probably entering the base state of an El Nino, +PNA/eastern troughing, and I think it will be much more difficult to break down then what the model suggests as it should be a fairly stable feature. When all is said and told I think what will come closer to verifying will a tendency to see the troughing in the midwest/eastern US vs. in the west. So in other words, I would take what we are seeing in the longer range with a great deal of caution and won't be surprised if we see the models flip as the longer range nears in time.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

You must be new here. Just so you know, it is all about MBY in here. 

 

Not sure I would really buy wholeheartedly into the EPS in its longer range. IMO it has been struggling quite a bit especially compared to the GEFS and that hasn't been exactly stellar in recent runs in regards to the longer range. Seems that the Eps has been overplaying the northern stream dump into the west which of course is flipping the troughing and ridging through the CONUS. At this point I think we are probably entering the base state of an El Nino, +PNA/eastern troughing, and I think it will be much more difficult to break down then what the model suggests as it should be a fairly stable feature. When all is said and told I think what will come closer to verifying will a tendency to see the troughing in the midwest/eastern US vs. in the west. So in other words, I would take what we are seeing in the longer range with a great deal of caution and won't be surprised if we see the models flip as the longer range nears in time.

Oh I am not necessarily buying what either the EPS or GEFS is selling currently. The pattern in general looks to be in a state of flux for a bit, and the PAC jet, as depicted, is a complicating factor. The point of my post was mostly to reinforce that the window of potential/period of interest may have to be pushed back a bit. I am not as enthused about prospects for a winter storm around Dec 3-4 as I was a few days ago. All subject to change  

As far as the IMBY stuff, there is no 'we' or 'us' when it comes to snowstorms  

[BristowWx]

1 hour ago, Wonderdog said:

Agree. If you don't have a CAD setup, anything cutting  to our west usually leaves us crying to our mommies. Why can't  storms have a clockwise rotation?

Happy Thanksgiving sir.  Feels like it for once..if we lived in Vermont

[Wonderdog]

8 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Happy Thanksgiving sir.  Feels like it for once..if we lived in Vermont

Same to you. At least it's getting overcast. One can dream.

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Same to you. At least it's getting overcast. One can dream.

Bay effect...happens all the time around here as you know lol

[Wonderdog]

FV-3 has a coastal transfer on 12/3-4 but mostly or all rain for us. Needs to get off the coast then maybe...

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

The stormy pattern/global warming pattern continues. When it's dry here, there is all this stuff happening in the West. It's an active/stormy Winter. 

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Not bad though

[Amped]

Not impressed with the last several Op runs. The Pacific isn't cooperating. And teleconnections don't work as well this early in the season.

[Amped]

5 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Not bad though

Cold and windy with a couple of snow squalls.

[psuhoffman]

It's November 

[aldie 22]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's November 

You can feel the panic in some already...classic

[frd]

6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

You can feel the panic in some already...classic

Funny thing is, we could beat climo snowfall in just a short period of time.

An active cold and stormy period later in the season could deliver several big hitters. 

I know many were thinking December would deliver, and it may, but I feel we need to temper expectations. 

Almost wondering whether the best part of the month, December that is , happens later,  well after December 5th. 

Interesting to note the extreme cold forecasted to deepen and pool over Siberia. A few years back there was talk of a so called bath tub slosh effect. 

Where as some mets mention this pattern of extreme cold up there would move South slosh like a bath tub, so seeing that you could expect a cold air outbreak in our area some 3 weeks later.  Speculation at this point.