November/December Medium/Long Range Disco

[Wonderdog]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Our possible Nov 30/Dec 1 storm probably hinges on how our early next week's storm is handled as it is pulling away. Notice on last nights GEFS that the storm is pulling out slowly and is just above Maine as any possible short wave is running through our south. Also notice how deep and strong this feature is. This is not a good setup as it squashes any energy that may come through as well as  any chances of a storm through our locale.

 

Now this is last nights EPS. Notice that our early next week storm is weaker and has progressed farther north and east vs. the previous example. Also it is swinging through the 50/50 region which is a favored spot for seeing amplification of systems on the east coast. The features are subtle because of smoothing but you do notice a kinking of the isobars around the Mississippi for our shortwave and a slight bulging on the east coast for the beginnings of ridging in front of the system. This is a far better look for possibilities of an east coast storm vs. the GEFS. If we continue to see the EPS advertise a weaker, quicker departing low from the NE on future runs we should see the signal for the shortwave and the ridging in front of it to strengthen. 

 

 

 

 Just comparing last night's GFS run with this morning GFS run, it seems like night and day. Last night's run runs a storm well north and west of us while this morning it pops a storm off the MA coast in the December 1st time frame. Is this morning's GFS possibly picking up on what the EPS depicted overnight?

 

[osfan24]

9 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

 Just comparing last night's GFS run with this morning GFS run, it seems like night and day. Last night's run runs a storm well north and west of us while this morning it pops a storm off the MA coast in the December 1st time frame. Is this morning's GFS possibly picking up on what the EPS depicted overnight?

 

Maybe, but I just think it's too far out in time to look at things that closely. Maybe come late in the weekend or early next week, actual individual threats can be identified and analyzed.

[Scud]

Well don't loosen your seatbelt. Max snowfall band shifted 150 miles SE 96 hour 12z GFS, To northern Illinois.

[yoda]

1 minute ago, Scud said:

Well don't loosen your seatbelt. Max snowfall band shifted 150 miles SE 96 hour 12z GFS, To northern Illinois.

Which storm are you looking at?  There really isn't any chance for anything frozen around here through at least Day 7 on the 12z GFS

[yoda]

Quick clipper-like system moves through at 210-216 with quick burst of snow in the morning for most of us on Friday, November the 30th... 10:1 SR TT snow map suggests 1-3" fwiw

[osfan24]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Quick clipper-like system moves through at 210-216 with quick burst of snow in the morning for most of us on Friday, November the 30th... 10:1 SR TT snow map suggests 1-3" fwiw

Man, wish we could lock that up. Would love a nice little system like that.

[Scud]

18 minutes ago, yoda said:

Which storm are you looking at?  There really isn't any chance for anything frozen around here through at least Day 7 on the 12z GFS

Looking at the Great Lakes Storm. It's track and mid level development mean everything for us.

[yoda]

FWIW, 06z FV3 was pretty nice looking from Dec 3 on to the end of its run IMHO

[WxUSAF]

Op runs are going to be all over the place for several more days still because of two factors:

1.  Complicated interaction of the late weekend/early next week storm and where it ends up parking underneath the NAO ridge.

2. Developing pac firehouse into the west coast. Fast flow and lots of short waves makes things complicated. This jet is going to keep the risk of cutters around until it backs off a bit.  We need need some spacing between waves so we can get some transient ridging out west to help drive something underneath us.

 

[schinz]

What is the best site to access the FV3?  Thanks

[WxUSAF]

Just now, schinz said:

What is the best site to access the FV3?  Thanks

Tropical tidbits 

[Daniel Boone]

23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Op runs are going to be all over the place for several more days still because of two factors:

1.  Complicated interaction of the late weekend/early next week storm and where it ends up parking underneath the NAO ridge.

2. Developing pac firehouse into the west coast. Fast flow and lots of short waves makes things complicated. This jet is going to keep the risk of cutters around until it backs off a bit.  We need need some spacing between waves so we can get some transient ridging out west to help drive something underneath us.

Good post. Yeah, Pac jet is hurting what would be an excellent setup. Need that ridge established in the west.

 

[Maestrobjwa]

27 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Op runs are going to be all over the place for several more days still because of two factors:

1.  Complicated interaction of the late weekend/early next week storm and where it ends up parking underneath the NAO ridge.

2. Developing pac firehouse into the west coast. Fast flow and lots of short waves makes things complicated. This jet is going to keep the risk of cutters around until it backs off a bit.  We need need some spacing between waves so we can get some transient ridging out west to help drive something underneath us.

 

So I take it this would come down to the precise timing of those waves, then?...(And that "pac firehouse"...is that what you guys call a "hostile pac"?) And that precise timing of how much space is between waves...is difficult for the models to figure out right now?

[psuhoffman]

Gfs and euro trending towards ridging in the east around day 10 before the epo ridge flexes day 10-15 and we get cold again. The ridging is in response to the trough in the southwest as Wxusaf said.  I've also seen stats that show the nao correlation to cold in the east is stronger later in winter. It's still a good thing now but something like a bad pna can offset it more now. Ultimately the Pacific looks to take over in a good way and plunge us into a colder look after day 10. That might be a better look for early season snow anyways. An ambiguous but not hostile AO with an EPO and PNA ridge is a much colder pattern and we need that this time of year. And a weaker progressive wave in a colder pattern might be a better shot for the coastal plain then some wound up system in a moderatly cold blocking pattern in early December anyways. 

There would still be a window immediately after the day 6 system if something can amplify and not get squashed. Or perhaps a clipper type system before the ridging takes hold. 

[WxUSAF]

23 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So I take it this would come down to the precise timing of those waves, then?...(And that "pac firehouse"...is that what you guys call a "hostile pac"?) And that precise timing of how much space is between waves...is difficult for the models to figure out right now?

Yeah exactly. I wouldn’t say the pac is hostile (blue ball of death in the gulf of AK is hostile), just not optimal.  But yes, fast flow with lots of waves makes it very hard for models to lock into a solution.

[WxUSAF]

@psuhoffman totally agree that a weaker progressive wave is probably our best chance through Dec 5-7 or so. GFS and Canadian both have something like this today.

edit...FV3 too out farther.

[PDIII]

I really like what the 12z euro was advertising at the end of the run.  Looking forward to the 18z run. Does anyone know which site carries the 06/ 18z euro runs?

[NorthArlington101]

I really like what the 12z euro was advertising at the end of the run.  Looking forward to the 18z run. Does anyone know which site carries the 06/ 18z euro runs?

6z/18z only goes out to 120, IIRC.

[PDIII]

Look at the temps on the GFS leading up to that time period... this is mid morning also..

 

[Wonderdog]

According to FV-3, on Dec 5, it's cool or cold everywhere in the continental U.S. except SE and the coastal plain, lol.

[Scud]

That 12z Euro was as close as it could get. Good sign. GFS splits energy in two.  Fascinating.

[WxUSAF]

 

[yoda]

36 minutes ago, PDIII said:

I really like what the 12z euro was advertising at the end of the run.  Looking forward to the 18z run. Does anyone know which site carries the 06/ 18z euro runs?

Not sure I agree... I see a ridge in the east and the h5 doesn't seem to look that great 

[WxUSAF]

Here's a good example of the problem of an overactive Pac jet in today's Euro.  We have a storm coming toward us that's trying to transfer to the coast because of the -NAO and 50-50 low, but this monster s/w crashing into CA gives us no help.  Need more separation between those waves so that ridging over the Plains backs up about 500-700 miles toward Idaho/Nevada.  

 

[Scud]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Here's a good example of the problem of an overactive Pac jet in today's Euro.  We have a storm coming toward us that's trying to transfer to the coast because of the -NAO and 50-50 low, but this monster s/w crashing into CA gives us no help.  Need more separation between those waves so that ridging over the Plains backs up about 500-700 miles toward Idaho/Nevada.  

 

From your lips to God's ears.......

[Maestrobjwa]

17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Here's a good example of the problem of an overactive Pac jet in today's Euro.  We have a storm coming toward us that's trying to transfer to the coast because of the -NAO and 50-50 low, but this monster s/w crashing into CA gives us no help.  Need more separation between those waves so that ridging over the Plains backs up about 500-700 miles toward Idaho/Nevada.  

 

UGH!!!!! Always somethin'...lol Can we still hope for a 500-700 mile correction in the modeling (I assume it's far enough out to not rule out seeing that?)

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

UGH!!!!! Always somethin'...lol Can we still hope for a 500-700 mile correction in the modeling (I assume it's far enough out to not rule out seeing that?)

Yeah, it's possible.  I mean, just scroll through previous runs of the GFS or Euro and you'll see giant storms forming, disappearing, and jumping all over at D10 leads right now.  Perhaps even more than usual for D10.  Odds are just tilted against any big wound up storm impacting us on the happy (cold) side with that jet blasting in.  As @psuhoffman said, EPS seems to pull the Pac jet back past D10 which should help that aspect out. 

[PDIII]

37 minutes ago, yoda said:

Not sure I agree... I see a ridge in the east and the h5 doesn't seem to look that great 

I just like that it is showing a large system that doesn't seem to cut... We know there will be some cold air around too.  Just seems like ingredients are coming in to place

[peribonca]

What I'm liking so far is that warm periods get temps up to normal and cold fronts really kick them down below average... 

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Gefs sure  likes the Dec 2nd timeframe this run. A lot of low  concentration for 10+ out . 

Signal for a "cold" storm has been sporadic, but generally I think we can forget November. Its been looking like Dec 3 (or later) will be the next legit shot on the means for a few days now. Even that might be a little soon, as the NA ridging looks to break down, while the PAC should be starting to trend more favorable. Wouldn't surprise me if its the 7th or later before there is a real shot at widespread frozen.