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November/December Medium/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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36 minutes ago, mappy said:

keep the political stuff out of this thread, a friendly heads up. someone posting MSNBC stuff doesn't mean they are endorsing anything from MSNBC, and vice versa for any other MSM network. 

thanks :) 

MSM (Methylsulfonylmethane) is great stuff. I highly recommend it. I take it daily. And the lotion is great for your skin.

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1 hour ago, poolz1 said:

Storm chances aside...Eps keeps looking colder in the LR (D11-15).  With that look up top and on the west coast I would think we have a pretty good period in early dec of some sig neg departures.

uYsOP7M.png

 

This is probably getting a bit granular given the lead time, but just to hone in on a specific window where there has been a decent storm signal, modeled temps are several degrees below average, so pretty cold. There is enough legit cold(and likely dry) air nearby though, and if we get a strong enough low with favorable track, not hard to imagine an event featuring frozen for much of the region. With that thermal gradient, looks like a low would want to form to our SE.

temps.thumb.png.30e7e92c0f0e3ee75913a57cd59fac5d.png

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Last several runs of the GEFS want to really keep the pressure on the PV in the lr....Models are in more of an agreement with a mjo cycle 7-8-1 in early Dec that has some decent amplitude.  Snow pack to grow from the plains/MW to SE Can and New England over the next 2 weeks.  Things are shaping up.....(not a news flash, I know)

LulVWtV.png?1

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8 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Nice, H is in a decent spot, confluence, and the trough trending negative.  I’d imagine we’d want the H a bit more SE from there?

Would probably want to see that high behind the low instead of ahead of it where it is escaping as the low comes up the coast. But at 10 days this is a great setup and we can start worrying about details if we can get it withing 5-7 days.

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48 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The most impressive feature by far on the 12z EPS is the high MSLP anomaly in the AO domain, for all 15 days.

I was impressed with watching all the lower pressure anomalies at 500 marching across the south and then through our region every 2-2 1/2 days in the extended. If that is correct it could be a very active period of time.

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Our possible Nov 30/Dec 1 storm probably hinges on how our early next week's storm is handled as it is pulling away. Notice on last nights GEFS that the storm is pulling out slowly and is just above Maine as any possible short wave is running through our south. Also notice how deep and strong this feature is. This is not a good setup as it squashes any energy that may come through as well as  any chances of a storm through our locale.

GEFSday9.gif.f1a4455dd76afe012adc7310e87e1a7a.gif

 

Now this is last nights EPS. Notice that our early next week storm is weaker and has progressed farther north and east vs. the previous example. Also it is swinging through the 50/50 region which is a favored spot for seeing amplification of systems on the east coast. The features are subtle because of smoothing but you do notice a kinking of the isobars around the Mississippi for our shortwave and a slight bulging on the east coast for the beginnings of ridging in front of the system. This is a far better look for possibilities of an east coast storm vs. the GEFS. If we continue to see the EPS advertise a weaker, quicker departing low from the NE on future runs we should see the signal for the shortwave and the ridging in front of it to strengthen. 

EPSday9.gif.b53497d5e92fb27911bcf130b3ab85e0.gif

 

 

 

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15 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Both GFS's still like the early Dec timeframe for a storm. And they are surprisingly similar in their evolution for so far out.

Edit: Post edited to remove political content. I dont want to take a beatdown from Mappy :)

 

15 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

It wouldn't be winter without Mappy getting feisty. 

 

14 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Of course! She's like the mama bear of this forum! (And @mappy I mean that in the best way :) You just have the air of "knock it off you two!" when we get unruly...lol)

 

14 hours ago, Scraff said:

Here’s the problem. It’s not winter!! :lol:

hahaha, oh you guys. :wub: 

15 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

MSM (Methylsulfonylmethane) is great stuff. I highly recommend it. I take it daily. And the lotion is great for your skin.

hahahahaha, I will keep it in mind. 

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