NJwx85 Posted November 15, 2018 Author Share Posted November 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Eh, I think you can give them some slack. You announced that Nassau County would be mostly rain before you went to bed last night. NAM was showing 6" for Nassau at that time. Yours wasn't an unreasonable forecast and I assume you had more reasons than just being conservative for making it. I’m shocked that LI did as well as they did, but NJ is a disaster. They hardly salted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 GFS had snow, if you adjusted there surface temps as they have a warm bias. The 850MB temps showed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 15, 2018 Author Share Posted November 15, 2018 Just now, Mitchel Volk said: GFS had snow, if you adjusted there surface temps as they have a warm bias. The 850MB temps showed it. Yes but it had most areas over to rain by now. It’s still 25 degrees here. Highly doubt I get to 34 by 10:00 like the forecast says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Central Park at 6” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I’m shocked that LI did as well as they did, but NJ is a disaster. They hardly salted. The slightly stronger high, cold wedge and cold dewpoints made the difference, along with the massive front end with dynamic cooling of the column. If it came in patchy and more showery, the column would’ve warmed up much sooner and we would’ve seen much less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I’m shocked that LI did as well as they did, but NJ is a disaster. They hardly salted. Suffolk got 4-6”, no WWA, nada. Inexcusable in 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I’m shocked that LI did as well as they did, but NJ is a disaster. They hardly salted. I don't think they salted in NYC. There wasn't even an advisory until this afternoon. Pretty sure Central Park will meet warning criteria with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 15, 2018 Author Share Posted November 15, 2018 Just now, dmillz25 said: Central Park at 6” We live in a new world where November and March are the snowiest months of the year lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Just now, Rittenhouse said: I don't think they salted in NYC. There wasn't even an advisory until this afternoon. Pretty sure Central Park will meet warning criteria with this. 1 minute ago, dmillz25 said: Central Park at 6” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Yes but it had most areas over to rain by now. It’s still 25 degrees here. Highly doubt I get to 34 by 10:00 like the forecast says. not at 850mb leve it was -.05 throw out there temp forecast and use your knowedge. Models must be adjusted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 15, 2018 Author Share Posted November 15, 2018 1 minute ago, psv88 said: Suffolk got 4-6”, no WWA, nada. Inexcusable in 2018 Agreed. However I don’t think anyone thought that the cold would hold there. Today I put the whole island at under 2”. Glad we all cashed in for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Finally turned over to mostly rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 15, 2018 Author Share Posted November 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Rittenhouse said: I don't think they salted in NYC. There wasn't even an advisory until this afternoon. Pretty sure Central Park will meet warning criteria with this. If the 6” at the park is confirmed they did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 So, last night I was looking around the boards and the media to see if I could find anyone who was close to forecasting closer to what most of the models were saying (especially the Euro/NAM, where the Euro is the best global model and the NAM is a very good mesoscale model within 24-36 hours) and the only one I could find was DT/WxRisk, who had the 95-corridor at 2-4" and just NW of 95 at 4-7", which is pretty close to what we'll end up with (if still under a bit). I posted it on FB and on the RU football board where I post about the weather, since it just seemed so odd that all the forecasts were ignoring those models. Didn't post it here, but will now, since it's germane to this discussion. DT can be a bit combative, but I enjoy his no holds barred approach and he's always willing to call himself out when he busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Rittenhouse said: I don't think they salted in NYC. There wasn't even an advisory until this afternoon. Pretty sure Central Park will meet warning criteria with this. I was all over Brooklyn and Staten Island today and no salt was down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I’m shocked that LI did as well as they did, but NJ is a disaster. They hardly salted. I was out and about and the roads are bad here too, but it's really the drivers that are bad. I actually took a walk in the woods and went down by the Sound briefly, but ran the last half mile back to the car when I started to hear cracking falling tree limbs. I will post some video later if I get a chance. Still light snow at 6:40, but I think a mix is knocking at our door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 15, 2018 Author Share Posted November 15, 2018 1 minute ago, NorthShoreWx said: I was out and about and the roads are bad here too, but it's really the drivers that are bad. I actually took a walk in the woods and went down by the Sound briefly, but ran the last half mile back to the car when I started to hear cracking falling tree limbs. I will post some video later if I get a chance. Still light snow at 6:40, but I think a mix is knocking at our door. Literally every highway out here is closed. My sister in law is stranded at our house because she couldn’t get all the way home from work. I live a mile and a half from my work and it took me 25 minutes to get home and I have all wheel drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 About 30 minutes ago I measured 6-6.5 inches snow in Upper Manhattan. Looking close to Central Park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 https://twitter.com/iembot_okx/status/1063212877421654016?s=21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: I was out and about and the roads are bad here too, but it's really the drivers that are bad. I actually took a walk in the woods and went down by the Sound briefly, but ran the last half mile back to the car when I started to hear cracking falling tree limbs. I will post some video later if I get a chance. Still light snow at 6:40, but I think a mix is knocking at our door. Drove from riverhead to Commack and the LIE had 3-4” of snow on it in spots. Many spin outs, cars in the woods. I was sliding in my jeep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Back to sleet and some mangled flakes. This mix line is really putting up a fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: well before this increase whatever it ends up being it was already around 12K a year. Yeah, still less. And i don't live in the wealthy burbs. I'm right across the river from SI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triniiphone Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 The park actually measured correctly? Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Sleet snow mix now on the uws with 6” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triniiphone Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Sleeting in bedstuy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Salt does absolutely nothing when you have 2"/hr rates. Just saying. City not having plows ready was the main issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: https://twitter.com/iembot_okx/status/1063212877421654016?s=21 Well that's a record folks. This is the worst November snowstorm on record for NYC. It also shatters the earliest 6+inch snowfall on record by over 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Now its mostly sleet/freezing rain but its 27 so thats not good. All transportation is crippled like a blizzard. Its terrible out some of the worst gridlock. I saw ppl standing on the cross bx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 11 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: I was out and about and the roads are bad here too, but it's really the drivers that are bad. I actually took a walk in the woods and went down by the Sound briefly, but ran the last half mile back to the car when I started to hear cracking falling tree limbs. I will post some video later if I get a chance. Still light snow at 6:40, but I think a mix is knocking at our door. Well, it was sleeting by the time I clicked submit on that post. Light sleet now. 4.5" might be the maximum snow depth here, even if the frozen precip hangs on for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, triniiphone said: The park actually measured correctly? Wow! It seems slightly low given the .79 liquid. Newark has .88 liquid we have to see what their snow total is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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