November 15-16 First Frozen Obs/Nowcast

[Allisong]

36/23 

[SnowGolfBro]

A pretty decent Breeze blowing from the NE. Cold air is trying to pour in

[George BM]

37/22 at IAD at 11:05pm est on Wednesday November 14, 2018 under cloudy skies.

[yoda]

Yikes... elevations above 2000 feet could see over half inch of ice

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1027 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

MDZ003-501-502-VAZ026>031-507-WVZ050>053-055-501>506-151130-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0009.181115T0900Z-181116T0900Z/
Washington-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-
Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-
Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-
Hardy-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-
Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton-
1027 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO
4 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total sleet and snow
  accumulation of 2 to 5 inches, and ice glaze accumulations of
  one-quarter inch expected. Elevations above 2000 feet could see
  ice accumulations exceeding one-half inch.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and western Maryland,
  northwest Virginia and eastern and panhandle West Virginia.

* WHEN...Wintry precipitation will start between 4 and 6 AM EST
  tonight, and continue through 4 AM EST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Power outages and tree damage are likely
  due to the ice. Travel could be nearly extremely difficult. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the Thursday morning and
  evening commute.

[WEATHER53]

19 minutes ago, Ji said:

if this is a january like airmass for our storms....winter is going to suck

This one looked good early and I think we will have obs to make tomorrow 

[Stormpc]

Temp up 2.5 degrees to 38.5 but dp down 5 to 27.5. NE breeze kicked in. Good stuff. 

[nj2va]

38/22.  Temp and DP slowly dropping.  Nice.

[midatlanticweather]

35/23

[clskinsfan]

There is some really nice banding showing up on the HRW for tomorrow afternoon/evening for NOVA. Who knows if it is right. But it looks like someone could get into some heavy stuff at some point tomorrow afternoon.

[frd]

5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

There is some really nice banding showing up on the HRW for tomorrow afternoon/evening for NOVA. Who knows if it is right. But it looks like someone could get into some heavy stuff at some point tomorrow afternoon.

Yep, and the below may be relevant to us as well. 

 

[high risk]

It's worth noting that the HRRR has rain at the start and then transitioning quickly to sleet and then snow, with a heavier burst of snow around 10AM.    NAM nest is similar, with an initial period of rain and sleet, followed by some heavier snow, also around 10AM.

[CatoctinRN]

Ok so this is my very first post after reading for a bit so excuse me if I sound a bit uneducated(or completely)

I'm in Emmitsburg,MD. Extreme NW Frederick County, MD.. approx 10 miles from Gettysburg,PA if that helps. Our local forecast keeps saying rain/sleet/1-3 snow? Yet the maps here don't seem to jive with that. We're in Catoctin Mountain.

 

Anyways..I need to drive tomorrow at 7am from here to Westminster, MD. Can anyone give me an actual idea of what I can expect? Then I drive back at 4pm.

Thanks.

[NorthArlington101]

2:00 a.m. Charlottesville weather update: it’s 37, so it doesn’t actually matter what it’s doing:

There will be more enthralling weather updates throughout the night, I’m sure.

[NorthArlington101]

Ok so this is my very first post after reading for a bit so excuse me if I sound a bit uneducated(or completely)
I'm in Emmitsburg,MD. Extreme NW Frederick County, MD.. approx 10 miles from Gettysburg,PA if that helps. Our local forecast keeps saying rain/sleet/1-3 snow? Yet the maps here don't seem to jive with that. We're in Catoctin Mountain.
 
Anyways..I need to drive tomorrow at 7am from here to Westminster, MD. Can anyone give me an actual idea of what I can expect? Then I drive back at 4pm.
Thanks.

Oh, and to this point, you should be fine at 7. Event will probably just be getting going up there at that point, won’t have really started. At 4:00 though it will likely be a somewhat icy/slick snowy mess. Not sure I’d expect the roads to be super bad, but there will have been extended winter precip at that point.

Gist is, drive there should be fine, drive back will be harder.

[Deck Pic]

39/22 here in UHI hell. 

[Jebman]

8 hours ago, BristowWx said:

Not the same without you Jebman 

I am pulling for the Mid Atlantic to get obliterated by this winter storm! 

It is going to be winter storm after winter storm after winter storm after winter storm. This is going to be one of the most EPIC winters in recorded history in the Washington DC Region, the Winter of 2018-2019.

Head straight for Rt 9 and keep on going west, into Berkeley County in West Virginia.

If I were in the region, thats where I'd go.

In other news, Buda TX had a high of 42 degrees yesterday Nov 13, under sunny skies then last night we fell to a frigid 19 degrees!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Something is definitely up with the weather. Buda TX's normal LOW is 51 degrees. Thats over 30 degrees below normal for us. Even in Dale City, a low of 19 degrees would be very remarkable at this time of year.

All hell is about to break loose this winter, unlike anything we have ever before experienced.

If you think that is hyperbole, then just remember this past summer in the Mid Atlantic.

[showmethesnow]

6 hours ago, PDIII said:

This doesnt make any sense.. since when did the euro roll at 18Z?

Strange new world we live in. Accumulating snow in mid-November and off hour runs of the Euro. Crazy, isn't it?

 

6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

32/18

Show off. 

 

5 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Everyone better be all in!  If we bust, we'll have to wait until next winter!

eta: t-minus 16 days

Thinking we will have another shot or two before winter sets in.

 

4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

If it busts here I say we storm the server room and torch it. 

(for future unknown people looking at this post, I'm an not seriously advocating for the destruction of federal property)

I know you and I STILL think you are advocating for this. But you are/were the Reaper after all so you thrive on anarchy. 

[WhiteoutMD]

I am pulling for the Mid Atlantic to get obliterated by this winter storm! 
It is going to be winter storm after winter storm after winter storm after winter storm. This is going to be one of the most EPIC winters in recorded history in the Washington DC Region, the Winter of 2018-2019.
Head straight for Rt 9 and keep on going west, into Berkeley County in West Virginia.
If I were in the region, thats where I'd go.
In other news, Buda TX had a high of 42 degrees yesterday Nov 13, under sunny skies then last night we fell to a frigid 19 degrees!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Something is definitely up with the weather. Buda TX's normal LOW is 51 degrees. Thats over 30 degrees below normal for us. Even in Dale City, a low of 19 degrees would be very remarkable at this time of year.
All hell is about to break loose this winter, unlike anything we have ever before experienced.
If you think that is hyperbole, then just remember this past summer in the Mid Atlantic.

Do you live in Texas now or you there for work?


.

[George BM]

Hearing pingers in Herndon, VA.

[poolz1]

33/20

Light breeze out of the N.  Temp steady at 33 but dew has dropped a few degrees since around 11pm. 

[showmethesnow]

06Z NAMs have stepped back a touch especially the 3K which has shifted the southern extent of the snow northward 10-15 miles. But probably nothing more then noise at this point. 06Z GFS on the other hand has gotten more aggressive especially towards the cities. Positive snow depth (which in this case includes sleet) is now showing roughly 2.5-3 inches for DC with a little more in Balt.

[showmethesnow]

Still not feeling the back-end of the storm for snow as the ull swings through except for maybe around the PA line and I have serious doubts up there as well. Upper low is just to far north and west as it swings through.

[North Balti Zen]

35 with a dew point of 18 in Baltimore. Is this one of those deals where when the precip starts the temp falls a few degrees? 

[aldie 22]

33/23

[George BM]

Just now, North Balti Zen said:

35 with a dew point of 18 in Baltimore. Is this one of those deals where when the precip starts the temp falls a few degrees? 

Yeapers. 

[DSF]

Baltimore County just straight up closed. Harford still on a delay, no other big area systems announcing yet. 

[Potvinsux]

Snowshoe = 19 and moderate rain....yes, rain.  Winds gusting in the 20's.  Never had rain with temps this low.

[poolz1]

A beautiful sight...STJ getting it's say in the matter already in Nov. 

 

[BristowWx]

IP in Bristow.  35/31.  There may be a mangled desperate flake in there somewhere....no wait that’s my reflection in the window nm 

[NoVaWx]

Sleet in ashburn.