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November 15-16 First Frozen Obs/Nowcast

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

3k NAM gives you guys the deform band too... tail end runs down towards DC.

I'm going to be living vicariously through you guys. I'm super nervous down here in CHO. It's gonna be a sleet fest or nothing and based off current temps I lean towards nothing. 

You’ll get yours.  Suppression storm you get 12 I get 4 psu gets fringed...book it

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Ji said:

for the first time today, the NAM3k is showing a period of Heavy snow. I wonder if we can get a 3-5 inch surprise

Dude, the nams and hrrr are the best runs yet and considering it will be snowing or sleeting in less than 12 hours they might actually be partially right. 18z euro was really good too. Maybe this is the year of reverse busts....

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BTRWx's Thanks Giving

BTRWx's Thanks Giving

Posted
Posted

Interesting afd update

"The NWP-progged 

upward motion and cold air aloft tomorrow morning is an area of
concern, as vertical displacement of this colder air aloft with
large UVV as evidenced by every NWP model tomorrow morning could
promote a longer period of frozen precipitation tomorrow
morning in the I-95 corridor, including Baltimore and Washington
DC Metro Areas. Fortunately, Winter Weather Advisories are
posted in these areas as well, and the only updates I have made
to the forecast is bring the snow/sleet accumulations further
east with around 0.5" accumulations early tomorrow morning in
the metro areas, and up to 1-2 inches in the northwest suburbs
Loudoun/West Montgomery/Howard/N Balt."
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Stormpc

Stormpc

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

32 dew point?  Mine is 25...doesn’t sound right

I checked many area PWS's in the area from Indy Hill up 619 in S Bristow and most were between 30-32. Not that it matters right now. We are still six or more hours away from precipitation arriving. The drier air may be draining slowly sw. 

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Stormpc said:

I checked many area PWS's in the area from Indy Hill up 619 in S Bristow and most were between 30-32. Not that it matters right now. We are still six or more hours away from precipitation arriving. The drier air may be draining slowly sw. 

Yeah mine could be off...32 sounded high

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osfan24

osfan24

Posted
Posted

HRRR is really hit and miss. Sometimes it really nails a storm and picks up on things no other model does and sometimes it’s totally out to lunch. Hopefully, it’s the former as trends tonight seem a bit interesting. Great day for the Orioles and maybe a great day for us snow lovers coming up as well!

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mattie g

mattie g

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Me too, I'm at Carver Vo Tech. We can kiss Pres day goodbye. I consider it gone already. It's there is theory only since in 13 years we have yet to not have at least one closing For something and it's the first make up day now. 

Never understood the idea of makeup days. Just be smart about the days you close and deal with it.

36. Not sure about dewpoint.

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