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November 15-16 First Frozen Obs/Nowcast


WxUSAF

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Interesting sounding from RNK tonight (they're back up and running, btw). 

 

Heck of a dry layer at 850, so most of that "rain/snow" on radar north of Roanoke isn't reaching the ground yet. A friend of mine did report a bit of light rain in Blacksburg though. Either way, that warm nose around 800mb is fairly pronounced, even if we wet-bulb down. It'll be a fun 12-18 hours to see how things unfold with our first system of the season. :D

RNK 11-15-18 0Z Sounding.png

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10 minutes ago, DSF said:

Harford County announced a delay. I teach in Balt City and have a field trip scheduled for tomorrow afternoon. A delay would be great, but a closure would actually be a bit of a hassle. (Plus it means losing President's Day.)

I can't honestly say I'd root against it though. 

Me too, I'm at Carver Vo Tech. We can kiss Pres day goodbye. I consider it gone already. It's there is theory only since in 13 years we have yet to not have at least one closing For something and it's the first make up day now. 

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6 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Wasn't it updated in the past year?  I honestly thought it performed better locally before the update, but I could be wrong.

It nailed that the deform was going to be further northeast with that miller b in March last year. The one where the euro and all guidance teased me and Mappy with like 6-8" the day before and the long range hrrr saw the bust before the 0z guidance picked up on it. It also did pretty well with the dry slot that killed me in that Feb storm. I don't pay close enough attention to it to know but the few times I did it seemed ok.  

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