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November 15-16 First Frozen Obs/Nowcast


WxUSAF

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1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

Man. It is something else out here. Got a nice crust on top of 6 inches of snow. Just took the dog on a long Jebwalk and it feels like mid January. This is really something special to be experiencing before Thanksgiving. I think we might have an epic winter incoming.

Anyone know how much snow is on Rt 9? At CharlesTown West VA?

YOU BETCHA you have an epic winter incoming!

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47 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Anyone know how much snow is on Rt 9? At CharlesTown West VA?

YOU BETCHA you have an epic winter incoming!

6" snow (mostly powder), topped with 0.5" or so crust of ZR, still coming down, trees really sagging and icing up. Not looking forward to winds kicking up here in a bit.

31 degrees 

 

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20 minutes ago, MountainGeek said:

6" snow (mostly powder), topped with 0.5" or so crust of ZR, still coming down, trees really sagging and icing up. Not looking forward to winds kicking up here in a bit.

31 degrees 

 

Thanks! How much did YOU get in Berryville? Man if I was up there I'd be enjoying a nice leisurely jebwalk in CharlesTown. I never really got into the gambling but I REALLY LOVED the snow!

When you guys get smashed this hard by snow this early, you know what's gonna happen this winter! The entire Mid Atlantic will get totally annihilated by incredibly deep snows. It will be relentless and it will show no quarter, no mercy at all, until May 2019.

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5 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Thanks! How much did YOU get in Berryville? Man if I was up there I'd be enjoying a nice leisurely jebwalk in CharlesTown. I never really got into the gambling but I REALLY LOVED the snow!

When you guys get smashed this hard by snow this early, you know what's gonna happen this winter! The entire Mid Atlantic will get totally annihilated by incredibly deep snows. It will be relentless and it will show no quarter, no mercy at all, until May 2019.

About the same, maybe an extra half inch or so of snow and a bit more crust. I'm not actually in Berryville, I'm in WV up on the mountain between Berryville and Purcellville...about 6 miles from Charles Town :)

It's serious deep winter mode out there right now -- awesome for mid-Nov. Tried to do a Jebride on the ATV in the ZR, but could only go so long before I got completely soaked through and I wasn't quite ready to go full @Bob Chill nekkid celebration mode. Trees are very pretty but sagging badly and thinking we're going to have quite the mess once the winds start up.

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Unreal - my home of 27 years in Orange County New York received 18.5”.... and I thought my 6” was impressive. Goddamn. 

Hell of a way to kick off winter nonetheless!!! I see that models are hinting at some legit blocking in east Canada  (-NAO) for  most of December. Could be a solid start to winter if all works out correctly  

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11 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Man. It is something else out here. Got a nice crust on top of 6 inches of snow. Just took the dog on a long Jebwalk and it feels like mid January. This is really something special to be experiencing before Thanksgiving. I think we might have an epic winter incoming.

The last couple years mid January has felt like summer. 

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Just to show how fluky yesterday was, here are the high temps for Nov 15 since 2013 (IAD).  Even more impressive is that yesterday's  high of 37 was just after midnight and it was 31/32 from 7 am to 1 pm.  IAD measured 1.50" of precip so just think what this storm would have been a few weeks later!

2013:  62

2014:  43

2015:  66

2016:  63

2017:  54

2018:  37 (3.0" snow)

 

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If anyone showed me this as the snow cover expectation on November 16th, I would have laughed and said it was weenie wishful thinking
 
image.png.77c2b63cf9171c4adfa37daa9ff70004.png


Good to know that map is inaccurate since there wasn’t a single flake down here in Charlottesville. But seriously, great start to winter. Hard to imagine a better look and a better start, and if we start strong and hold the backloaded winter look... good be in for a great one.
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After a high of 39 I still have a white landscape, pretty cool for this early in the season.  I would est. a good 3-4 inches depending on the sun exposure.

I recorded 1.22 liquid equiv. for this storm.   That makes 6.21" for November alone already and 67.95" year to date.

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